Free Republic

Although Republicans have nominal control of the chamber, the Senate is where Democrats have been most effective in thwarting the GOP’s agenda. Will this November’s races supplement Republican numbers, or will Democrats maintain their blockade? Here are my thoughts on the upcoming political harvest: (NOTE: After each state is a running total in italics.) ALABAMA -- Richard Shelby’s 1994 switch to the GOP played well in this Republican-leaning state. Add in the fact that he’s won his last two Senate races by 2-to-1 margins, and it’s easy to see why Shelby will have no problem keeping this seat. Stays Republican...

California’s recall contest has stirred the political junkie within me. Even though next year’s election is still thirteen months away, already I feel the need to offer my predictions. You’d think I would exercise more self-control. Then again, maybe not. For what they’re worth (and a year ahead of time, they’re probably not worth very much), here are my thoughts on the 2004 Senate match-ups. (NOTE: After each state is a running total in italics.) ALABAMA -- Richard Shelby’s 1994 switch to the GOP played well in this Republican-leaning state. Add in the fact that he’s won his last two...

According to the press, John McCain’s campaign finance legislation has saved the nation and will cause all corruption to melt away…or something like that. That’s wonderful, but McCain and his fellow “reformers” don’t seem to understand what really bedevils American democracy. Forget the lobbyists and special interest groups. Like them or not, they do have a legitimate role to play, and whatever excesses they commit are well documented (and heartily denounced) by both the media and countless watchdog groups. Furthermore, lobbyists’ actions already were proscribed carefully by law long before McCain-Feingold. Instead, our republic sustains far greater damage on Election...

The Senate's partisan strength is so delicately balanced right now, the outcome in November of a few close races will determine the ultimate fate of the president's agenda and nominees. In fact, the way things look right now, we could have at least six Senate races decided by single-digit margins, most likely by margins in the low single digits. The states that should feature close contests include: Arkansas, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, New Hampshire and South Dakota. Horse races also might develop in Colorado, Georgia, Montana and perhaps even in Illinois and New Jersey. In these competitions any number of factors...

With the election fewer than six months away, this is a good time to start handicapping the upcoming Senate races. Republicans need to capture only one Democratic seat to regain a majority (with VP Cheney's tie-breaker) in Congress's upper house, but things might not be so simple this year. After Jim Jeffords came home to the Democrats last year, the equally-liberal "Republican" Lincoln Chafee (RI) promised to do the same if (when) the GOP retook control. Chafee did stipulate he'd stick with Republicans if they "moved in a more moderate direction," but Chafee seems to think "moderate" is somewhere to...

Twice in the past month, Georgia's Senator Zell Miller has made news for standing up to his party's left wing; first by speaking at the NRA convention and then, more recently, by refusing to genuflect before Cynthia McKinney. This is far from the first time Sen. Miller has shown his independence. Last year, though, Sen. Miller dampened rumors that he intended to become a Republican (but not before he seemed to give the notion some serious thought). If memory serves, on the day Jim Jeffords jumped ship, Sen. Miller's office announced that he would have "an announcement" of his own...

So, what has redistricting given us? It may be too early to say for sure, but this is what I've come up with so far: (By the way, the running total is in boldface following each state.) Alabama: While Riley's [R] vacated seat isn't quite a Democratic lock, a substantial black population does give Dems a good chance to pick it up. (R -1, D +1) (R -1, D +1)Arizona: Democrats already have one of the new seats sewn up, but the other is still a tossup. My guess is that Bush's popularity in "flyover country" will translate into the...

Although things are far from settled, I think the big redistricting picture is coming into focus. This is what I've gathered: First, let's tally the damages (net GOP losses and/or Democratic gains)... AZ -- D +2 (This is assuming Arizona's new "toss-up" district votes for a Democrat.) CA -- D +1 GA -- R -2, D +4 (This is tentative. I understand the DOJ is taking issue with Georgia's newly-drawn lines. Whether this challenge proves successful remains to be seen. For now, though, let's assume the Democrats' gerrymander stands.) IN -- R -1 (If, however, Republicans can pick up the ...

Stuart Rothenberg: Redistricting's early results show status-quo June 26, 2001 Posted: 4:48 PM EDT (2048 GMT) By Stuart Rothenberg WASHINGTON (CNN) -- It's seven states down and a few dozen to go in the world of congressional redistricting. And the early results suggest neither party will receive a windfall of districts from the new lines being drawn by legislatures across the country. But insiders from both major political parties agree that a handful of states will determine which party, if either, ultimately benefits from redistricting. And most of the focus is now on Texas, where insiders believe the net result ...