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From an e-mail sent mid-afternoon on November 7th 2000. I'm putting it here now so you can see that there's a plus/minus factor in exit polling, so if someone says tomorrow afternoon that Kerry is 2 points ahead in the Florida exit polls, it may mean nothing. I've enclosed the actual exit polling data, followed in brackets by the actual final result and the absolute value of the error in margin. Bush Gore FL 47 50 [49-49; 3] NH 48 47 [48-47; 0] WV 54 46 [52-46; 2] IL 43 52 [43-55; 3] ME 44 48 [44-49; 1] MI 46...

The sun set, the moon rose, the unchilled milk attained room temp, the dog had to pee, the match was struck and guttered out, the earth moved along its prescribed orbit, and Andrew Sullivan endorsed John Kerry. Some notable rationales: Kerry has said again and again that he will not hesitate to defend this country and go on the offensive against Al Qaeda. I see no reason whatsoever why he shouldn't. This would be a reasonable statement if Sen. Kerry had just popped fully-formed from Zeus’ brow, howling for justice, but there’s the inconvenient matter of three decades of public...

Bush and Kerry in Dead Heat for Popular Vote By Ronald Brownstein, Times Staff Writer WASHINGTON - President Bush and Sen. John F. Kerry, in a race dividing Americans far more along lines of cultural values than economic interests, remain locked in a dead heat one week before election day, a Times Poll has found. Whether measured among all registered voters or only those viewed as most likely to vote - and with or without independent Ralph Nader in the mix - the poll finds Kerry and Bush in a statistical tie. Among likely voters, Bush and Kerry each draws...

MICHIGAN: WE HEAR the Bush event this week in Michigan is now at the Detroit Silverdome because of the size crowd they're expecting.

Bloomfield Hills - In a 330-seat Bloomfield Hills theater Sunday afternoon, five loyal supporters of Sen. John Kerry turned out for a showing of a new documentary about the Democratic presidential nominee's involvement in the Vietnam War. Directed and produced by Kerry's friend, George Butler, "Going Upriver: The Long War of John Kerry" describes the Massachusetts senator's experience as a Vietnam War soldier and as a war protester when he returned home. The 90-minute film is showing in four locations in Michigan: Livonia, Bloomfield Hills, Ypsilanti and Sterling Heights. "It was wonderful and inspiring," said Detroit resident Bob Boyer, 63....

The X Files Of Lt. Bush A flurry of contested memos and memories sheds more heat than light on his record By AMANDA RIPLEY Monday, Sep. 20, 2004 Journalists and politicos have been trying off and on for a decade now to suss out exactly what George W. Bush did in the National Guard more than 30 years ago. The basic facts are not very mysterious: Bush got a coveted homeland gig in the Guard, just as many other well-connected college graduates did, while hundreds of thousands of other young men got drafted and sent to Vietnam. Ever since Bush...

8/23/2004, 5:46 p.m. ET By KATHY BARKS HOFFMAN The Associated Press LANSING, Mich. (AP) — Presidential candidate Ralph Nader will have to rely on the courts to get on the Michigan ballot this November. The Board of State Canvassers deadlocked Monday on whether to accept the nearly 50,000 signatures turned in last month to put Nader on the ballot. About 45,000 of the signatures were collected by Republicans. Nader needed 30,000 signatures to get on the Michigan ballot as an independent. The 2-2 decision by the board followed party lines, with Republicans voting to certify the signatures and Democrats objecting....

Pete Townshend wants to make sure his fans won't get fooled by Michael Moore. The rocker recently posted a letter on his Web site asserting that he is upset with Moore for making false claims about him. "He says — among other things — that I refused to allow him to use my song 'Won't Get Fooled Again' in ['Fahrenheit 9/11'] because I support the war, and that at the last minute I recanted but he turned me down," Townshend wrote. In the July/August issue of Film Comment, Michael Moore is quoted as saying that the moment following President Bush's...

<p>BAGHDAD, Iraq -- Nearly four months after U.S.-led forces defeated Saddam Hussein's regime, the early euphoria most Iraqis expressed over their leader's ouster largely has evaporated, replaced by growing resentment of the American presence.</p> <p>The discontent suggests that, even as U.S. officials say they are closing in on the deposed president with a $25-million bounty on his head, capturing or killing Hussein likely won't restore order in Iraq the way some U.S. leaders have suggested, according to Iraqi civilians and academic researchers in interviews, as well as a poll, taken in recent weeks.</p>

Lansing Township - Chained to a wheel of a Ford Topaz with a "No War" message spray-painted across its doors, Amy Field sat chanting "They shall go to hell!" "Hopefully, this is the beginning of a worldwide revolution," the East Lansing resident said, amid a throng of more than 30 colorfully dressed anti-war demonstrators carrying black banners and shouting against the roar of Wednesday's rush-hour traffic rolling past the Frandor Shell station on East Saginaw Street. "This might motivate people to step up and take their responsibility as American citizens." The protesters - made up of several groups, including Direct...

My own belief is that the US Supreme Court will either fully overturn the FSC, or else at least overturn the "other" county hand recounts (the FSC directed that the Miami-Dade recount occur due to the Gore contest, so it might be covered under Florida law; the other recounts most certainly cannot be justified through any reasonable reading of Florida law). That being said, let's look at the worst-case scenario (as far as risk of possible defeat for Bush)--the US Supreme Court lifts the stay and the hand recounts go forward. We may as well be prepared for the worst, ...

The FSC's reference to decreasing Bush's margin by 215 votes is odd, because it indicates just how little attention they've paid to the facts of the case. The +215 was the unofficial guesstimate by Palm Beach as of Sunday, November 26. The *final* official Palm Beach number showed Gore gaining 174 votes on Bush, not 215. Those 41 votes may matter, and given that the order almost certainly was to include the final Palm Beach recount numbers, not "add 215 to Gore's totals", I would assume that the real Gore gain will be +174. Thus Bush's lead is down to ...