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You know, it makes me wonder what will happen if someone like Newt Gingrich or Rick Santorum does get elected, and starts a war with Iran (in an America that is sick of foreign wars) to position themselves as the favorite candidate of Christian Zionists and the pro-Israel Lobby.

I can’t see that as being a good thing for Israel. On the contrary, I can’t think of anything more likely to stimulate anti-Semitic conspiracy theories. Having dealt with these people on the internet (who believe everything is a Jewish conspiracy), I am sure that would be like oxygen to the whole anti-Semitic sub-culture.

After 10 years of war, how many Iraq and Afghan vets and their families (these people all being under the age of 40) do you suppose are ready to support Newt Gingrich’s WW3 with Iran?

Do you honestly want to run Newt or Santorum against Obama in 2012 on a WW3 platform. Obama is going to run as the “I brought the troops home” and “I killed bin Laden” candidate.

Do you want to make the 2012 election about starting a war with Iran? I mean really? Are there people who seriously believe that “WW3” is what American voters want right now?

The overwhelming sentiment that motivates Ron Paul’s supporters is opposition to utopian social crusades - whether it be foreign military interventions by neocons or “duty to protect” liberals, or domestic spending programs like “No Child Left Behind” - and a resentment at being expected to pay for these things.

The majority of Ron Paul’s supporters are not hardcore ideological libertarians like the Lew Rockwell crowd. These people are appealing to a broader slice of the electorate - especially Independents and under 40 voters - because of war fatigue and the general sense that the federal government is unresponsive, favors the privileged, and is out of control.

Most of Ron Paul’s supporters can be won over quite easily:

(1) If respect was shown to them. Something that can easily be done. As Palin is wisely doing here.

(2) If there was a serious effort to cut government spending, massively cut the size of government, and reign in the incestuous, corrupt relationship between Wall Street and DC.

(3) If the saber rattling, warmongering neocon element were reigned in who destroyed the Republican Party in 2006 and 2008 through the unwise intervention in Iraq - or, in Newt’s case - through his hypocrisy in the 1990s.

It is repudiation of George W. Bush-style “compassionate conservatism” more than anything else.

It wouldn’t be surprising: Ron Paul is winning 48 percent of voters in the Iowa Caucus under the age of 29.

It’s more like a lot of Obama supporters were just Independent swing voters and first time Millennial voters who opposed the Iraq War. Those people at the center of the electorate have turned more strongly against him than any of the other White subdemographics.

They are not hippies and nutjobs or liberals who show up at OWS with purple hair to beat drums in Atlanta. Just people who thought that Iraq was a disastrous clusterfuck and who resent having to pay for it.

There were plenty of conservatives who (1) are not fond of Wall Street and (2) who believed the Wall Street bailout was a bad idea.

Why should Wall Street get a massive federal bailout? How is that conservative? What does that say to people - not the OWS crowd, but to ordinary people who work for a living - that Goldman Sachs is “too big to fail,” but not the man who has lost his manufacturing job because of outsourcing?

Good for Palin.

The message was sent loud and clear in Iowa: 44 percent of Independents who participated voted for Ron Paul, as did every age demographic under 40 by wide margins, as did those who voted for the “True Conservative” in the race and those who voted because of government spending and the budget deficit.

The Ron Paul supporters message is this: no more wasteful and expensive neocon foreign wars for “dumbocracy,” no more neocon foreign wars that young people are expected to fight and pay for, no more wasteful big government spending programs in the name of “compassionate conservatism,” no more Wall Street bailouts for hedge fund managers, no more “No Child Left Behind” nonsense, etc.

Young people and Independents are on board with the Constitution, with the family, with states’ rights, with limited government, with opposing the welfare state, with the ideal of liberty and personal freedom ... NOT on board with a soaring national debt, with endless wars in the Middle East, with the Wall Street bailout, with government spending on utopian schemes like “No Child Left Behind,” with the Pentagon/HHS welfare/warfare state.

The neocon globalists like Newt Gingrich who believe American foreign policy should be a game of Risk with young people saddling up to go fight WW3 to bring on Armageddon (or for women’s rights and democracy in Iraq or Iran or Vietnam) are no longer the mainstream.

A “Millennial” voter is a voter who was born after 1981. “Gen X’ers” are voters who were born between 1965 and 1981.

There is that thing called “aging”: it is inevitable that older voters comprise a shrinking percentage of the electorate, and younger voters a growing percentage of the electorate.

Ron Paul won 50 percent of voters 17 to 24, 45 percent of voters 25 to 29, and 34 percent of voters 30 to 39. Rick Santorum won 25 percent of voters 40 to 49 and 27 percent of voters 50 to 64. Mitt Romney won 33 percent of voters 65 and older.

No, the Iowa Caucus shows that Ron Paul has surged from 9.5 percent to 21.5 percent in Iowa, which is one of the most Evangelical states in America.

He did that by winning 50 percent of voters under 29 and 26 percent of voters 30 to 44 who are now 30 percent of the Iowa electorate. Ron Paul also won 18 percent of “Evangelical vote” who were almost certainly under the age of 44.

Ron Paul beat Newt Gingrich in Iowa 21 to 13. He beat Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann too. That’s because Paul won every demographic under the age of 40 by wide margins.

Rick Santorum won among White Evangelicals over the age of 45 who are declining percentage of the Republican electorate. He won over 50 percent of people who say that abortion is their most important issue.

The process is not “broken” ... the results only reflect changing demographics and the massive unpopularity of starting a war with Iran and a surging national debt with voters under the age of 40.

Do you realize this is the year 2012?

Do you realize how much the demographics of this country have changed since the Bob Dole campaign when Gen X’ers were in high school? Millennial and Gen X voters are a much larger share of the electorate: 30 percent of voters in Iowa. There are more Independent voters. There are far more minorities.

Look at it this way: Pat Robertson and his Christian Zionist followers changed the Republican Party in the 1980s. That was 23 years ago. America is a different place now.

Once again, the people who calling Ron Paul a “kook” and a “crackpot” because of his opposition to starting an expensive, unnecessary war with Iran for theological reasons - those people are the minority, those people are nowhere near the center of the electorate, the country outside the Jerry Falwell/700 Club milieu is EXHAUSTED with endless foreign wars.

Apparently, the message hasn’t been sent: Newt Gingrich lost Evangelicals to Ron Paul in the Iowa caucus. He was actually destroyed by Ron Paul and Mitt Romney in the Iowa causes. That happened in one of the most Evangelical states in America.

I’m telling you it happened because of the endless war/endless debt issue. Just look at W’s spectacular collapse into the 20s between 2006 and 2008.

The people who were diehard supporters of Bush in 2008 at the height of his unpopularity are an even smaller share of the electorate in 2012. There is no path to victory in a general election for a Republican candidate who wants to start another war with Iran.

Keep telling yourself that.

We saw what happened in 2006 and 2008 when W. was the candidate of the Iraq War. Obama won in 2008 because he promised to bring the troops home.

If you make the 2012 election about starting a war with Iran instead of defeating Obama, Obama will regain his support among Independent and Millennial voters.

The so-called “Paultards” are at the center of the electorate on starting a war with Iran. The warmongers are on the fringe on that issue.

Confused perspective?

Who is more mainstream on Iran? Is it Ron Paul who opposes wasteful, expensive foreign wars, or is it Rick Santorum and his 700 Club followers who want to precipitate Armageddon in the Middle East?

Ron Paul is a centrist on foreign wars. He is supported by Independent and Moderate voters on that issue. Rick Santorum has no support on Iran outside of the Jerry Falwell constituency who were the 22 percent of Americans still backing W. in 2008.

No, it is a fact confirmed by exit polls. Independents and Moderates are the center of the electorate. Millennials and Gen X’ers are 30 percent of the Republican electorate now.

The people who support starting a war with Iran are THE MINORITY of Christian Zionists on the “Very Conservative” side of the Republican Party. They are the Jerry Falwell/Pat Robertson/Moral Majority crowd from the 1980s.

Compared to Ron Paul, these people are “extremists” on the Iran question. They call Ron Paul a “kook” for not wanting to start another unnecessary war with Iran, but the truth is that they are the ones who sound like “kooks” to the broader electorate.

Those people stuck with George W. Bush to the end when his approval rating had collapsed into the mid-20s.

Let’s see.

Ron Paul won Independents and Moderates in Iowa by significant margins. He won as many delegates as Rick Santorum in Iowa and defeated Newt Gingrich 22 to 13. He won 18 percent of Evangelicals in Iowa and the “True Conservative” vote according to CNN exit polls.

Ron Paul is going to lose New Hampshire and Florida? To who? to Rick Santorum? There are more Moderates and Independents in New Hampshire and Florida than Iowa.

Rick Santorum finished in second place in Iowa because he won the Jerry Falwell slice of the Republican electorate. He is not on the ballot in Virginia or other states.

Paul won 50 percent of Millennials in socially conservative Iowa and 26 percent of Gen Xers. Unlike Santorum, Ron Paul has the money and the demographic support to go much further into the 2012 race.

Umm, Ron Paul is a centrist compared to Rick Santorum and Pat Robertson.

Breaking News: There isn’t a big constituency out there for “bomb Iran” outside of the Evangelical Christian voting bloc. Most Americans are not tuning into the 700 Club to watch Pat Robertson.

Ron Paul > Newt Gingrich

We will see how Rick Santorum performs in Virginia ... oh wait, not even Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich are on the ballot in the Old Dominion!

As for Florida, Ron Paul will do will there. He will do well in New Hampshire too.

How so?

(1) Rick Santorum won the “Very Conservative” vote, but he lost Independents and Moderates in droves to Ron Paul and Mitt Romney.

(2) The “kook” Ron Paul defeated Newt Gingrich handily in Iowa.

(3) Ron Paul won 50 percent of Millennial voters and 26 percent of Gen X voters. He won 18 percent of Evangelical Christians. More than Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry. He won the “True Conservative” vote in Iowa. He also won Independent and Moderate voters.

(4) Ron Paul is far closer to the center of the political spectrum than Rick Santorum.

(5) The Rick Santorum vote are pro-life, “Very Conservative,” White Evangelical Christians who are over the age of 45. He performs poorly outside that demographic.

If Ron Paul is a dangerous extremist, a kook with nutty ideas, then how did Ron Paul beat Newt Gingrich 22 to 13 in Iowa? Maybe Iowans thought starting another war with Iran was a nutty idea.

Team Santorum voters who think they are going to coast to victory on a “Bomb Iran” platform in 2012 need to take a closer look at the Iowa exit polls.