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Manufacturer’s Durable Goods New Orders growth peaked in April 2021, thanks in part to M2 Money Growth peaking in February 2021. And its been all downhill since then. Preliminary March data showed a slightly better than expected 2.6% MoM rise (2.5% exp) in the headline orders print. However, thanks to the downward revisions, Durable goods orders are now down 2.2% YoY… the biggest YoY drop since the COVID lockdowns… Source: Bloomberg This is the 8th downward revision of durable goods orders in the last year… Source: Bloomberg Under the hood, defense and non-defense capital goods orders rose with non-defense aircraft...

The Thrill Is Gone … from Bidenomics. July durable goods [blue] new orders plummet, recording the worst month since C19 in April 2020. Durable goods fell on a MoM basis by -5.2%, versus -4% consensus estimate. Durable goods ex-transportation [orange] still rose on a MoM basis by +0.5%, perhaps highlighting the weakness in durable goods orders. Ex-transportation, durable goods order rose slighlty in July by 0.5%. But according to The Fed of St Louis, durable goods new orders were down -15.525% from June to July (MoM) while M2 Money printing growth rose 12.7% MoM. The KC Fed’s symosium in Jackson...

For the past several months we have warned about the pernicious effects soaring prices are having on both corporations ("Buckle Up! Inflation Is Here!") and consumers (""This Is Not Transitory": Hyperinflation Fears Are Soaring Across America"), prompting even otherwise boring sellside research to get (hyper) exciting, with Bank of America predicting that "Transitory Hyperinflation Lies Ahead."But none of this has spooked the Fed into conceding - or believing - that inflation is anything more than transitory. And maybe just this once, the Fed has a point because all else equal, by which we mean lack of rising wages, the best...

Link only: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-04/sam-zell-buys-gold-with-inflation-reminiscent-of-the-1970s

Orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket manufactured goods jumped 11.2% in July, the third consecutive monthly gain. The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that the July advance followed a 7.7% increase in June. The July increase was led by a strong advance in the volatile transportation sector, which was up 35.6%. Excluding transportation sector, orders would have risen by a more modest 2.4%.

Durable goods orders for June 2017 Prior was -0.8% Ex transport +0.2% vs +0.4% expected Prior ex transport +0.3% (revised to +0.6%) Capital goods orders non-defense ex air -0.1% vs +0.3% expected Prior capital goods orders non-defense ex air +0.2% (revised to +0.7%) Capital goods shipments non-defense ex air +0.2% vs +0.3% expected

The previous advance manufacturing report had showed that durable goods orders in February had declined. However, the drop in durable goods orders has been revised to 3% from the initial estimate of 2.8%. Furthermore, most of the downward revision was made in non-defence capital goods. According to the advance report, the core capital goods orders fell just 1.8%; however, yesterday’s report revised the decline to 2.5%. Core capital goods orders dropped at a three-month annualized rate of 10.2%, whereas the shipments are declining at a 7.7% clip. ... The inventory-to-ship ratio was 1.37 for the third consecutive month. This is...

U.S. orders for long-lasting goods such as heavy machinery or airplanes fell in September for the second month in a row, offering little evidence that manufacturers are ready to rebound after a prolonged bout of softness. Durable-goods orders fell a fell a seasonally adjusted 1.2% in September following an even sharper 3% decline in the prior month, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. Previously the government had said orders dropped 2.3% in August.

If you thought the US economy had begun showing signs of a slowdown, if not a recession, it wasn’t merely a figment of your imagination. For the second straight month, the durable goods report shows a decline even outside of the normally volatile transportation and defense sectors. In fact, the already negative August report got revised even further downward: New orders for manufactured durable goods in September decreased $2.9 billion or 1.2 percent to $231.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down two consecutive months, followed a 3.0 percent August decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased...

For the fifth straight month, US manufacturing sector has slowed, according to the Department of Commerce. Overall orders for manufacturing dropped 3.4% in December, led by a steep drop in transportation. Even without that, orders fell by 2.3%, and the overall decline in November was adjusted downward to 1.7%: New orders for manufactured goods in December, down five consecutive months, decreased $16.4 billion or 3.4 percent to $471.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 1.7 percent November decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 2.3 percent. Shipments, down four of the last five months, decreased $5.3...

The first story that popped up on my computer was NOT declining durable goods orders. It was a story on Yahoo that “Miley Cyrus Snatches Crown for Queen of Obscene” from Lady Gaga. mcob But back on the planet earth, US durable goods orders was expected to decline -4.0%, but fell more than expected at -7.3%. This comes after a print in June of +4.2% (which was revised downward to +3.9%). dg082613 This is the 2nd worst drop in durable goods print since January 2009. But if we remove transportation (such as airplane orders), durable goods orders only fell -0.6%....

ew orders for manufactured durable goods in September increased $19.6 billion or 9.9 percent to $218.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up four of the last five months, followed a 13.1 percent August decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 2.0 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 9.1 percent. Uh huh. The table inside is amusing. Nondefense aircraft was up 2,640.7% on the month. No, I didn't spit coffee on my keyboard and short it out, that's really the number. And that might have something -- just a wee bit -- to do with the headline figure....

A series of new economic figures this morning cast fresh gloom on the health of the U.S. economy. The economy grew much less than expected in the second quarter, new Labor Department estimates show. Second quarter GDP was revised lower to 1.3% from an earlier 1.7%. (Economists believed that GDP would be revised lower to 1.6%.) Declining consumer spending and business investment combined to weigh mightily on economic activity. More troubling still is what this suggests about the third quarter. Little has surfaced to point to a pick-up, meaning that it’s unlikely the economy will grow much more than before....

A key measure of the economy, especially in manufacturing, just had the bottom fall out. Orders for durable goods dropped 13.2% in August, the worst decrease in almost four years, and a large signal that the American economy is diving into a recession: New orders for manufactured durable goods in August decreased $30.1 billion or 13.2 percent to $198.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down following three consecutive monthly increases, was the largest decrease since January 2009 and followed a 3.3 percent July increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 1.6 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased...

Today the economic news was mostly bad. Q2 GDP was revealed to be only 1.3% rather than the expected 1.7%. Now, THAT is a major swing and a miss! Durable goods orders fell -13.2% in August. Another big swing and a miss. At least initial jobless claims fell to 359,000 from an upwardly revised figure of 385,000. The expectation was for 375,000 initial jobless claims. But claims of this size is still terrible given that the recession ended in June 2009. Note that the Carter/Reagan recessions were actually two recessions. So the combination of the two Carter/Reagan recessions was 22...

Durable goods orders tumbled 4.2 percent, the largest decline since January 2009, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday after a downwardly revised 1.9 percent increase in February. Economists had forecast orders for durable goods, which range from toasters to aircraft, falling 1.7 percent after a previously reported 2.4 percent rise in February. Orders were dragged down by a 12.5 percent plunge in bookings for transportation equipment - the most since November 2010. Excluding transportation, orders fell 1.1 percent after a 1.9 percent rise in February. Economists had forecast this category rising 0.5 percent. The report added to signs that manufacturing...

Bookings for U.S.-made products designed to last at least three years fell by 0.8% last month, the Commerce Department said. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected a 1.0% decrease. Transportation orders slumped 7.5% to account for virtually the entire decline... ...Excluding transportation, however, orders climbed 1.7% in September. Demand increased for computers, primary metals, fabricated metals, heavy machinery and electrical equipment.

July Durable Goods Beat Expectations At 4% Mamta Badkar Aug. 24, 2011, 8:30 AM Headline: Headline figures came in up 4% versus expectations of 2%. Ex-transportation figures are up 0.7% in July. Ex-defense durable goods are up 4.8%. But there's bad news too. Core capital goods orders which exclude defense and transport were down 1.5% versus expectations for 0.5% gains. U.S. futures which were sharply lower have moved higher on the news, but remain in negative territory ahead of the market open. Expectations: 2% month-over-month increase in new orders. 0.1% year-over-year increase in new orders. Ex-transport, durable goods orders are...

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Stronger orders for airplanes translated into a better-than-expected 1.9% increase in durable-goods orders in May, the Commerce Department estimated Friday. In a separate report, the government reported that U.S. real gross domestic product for the first quarter was revised to an increase of 1.9% on an annualized basis from the earlier estimate of a 1.8% increase. It marks the final revision to the measure of total output of goods and services in the largest global economy for the first three months of 2011.

"New orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods rose far less than expected in July and, excluding transportation equipment, posted their largest decline in 1-1/2 years, according to a government report on Wednesday that pointed to a slowdown in manufacturing." "The Commerce Department said durable goods orders rose 0.3 percent after a revised 0.1 percent fall in June. Excluding transportation, orders dropped 3.8 percent—the biggest fall since January 2009—after rising 0.2 percent in June." "Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast orders increasing 2.8 percent last month from June's previously reported 1.2 percent fall."