Free Republic

Q1 Real GDP was released by the BEA this morning. It was a mixture of disappointment and good news (for retailers). Real GDP grew by 2.5% (annualized), but analysts were expecting 3.0%. So, this was a swing and a miss. According to the BEA, “The acceleration in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an upturn in private inventory investment, an acceleration in PCE, an upturn in exports, and a smaller decrease in federal government spending that were partly offset by an upturn in imports and a deceleration in nonresidential fixed investment.” Personal consumption expenditures rose 3.2% in Q1,...

The Commerce Department reported GDP grew at a 2.5 percent pace in the first quarter but don't break out the champagne. Several one-time factors contributed to this seemingly robust performance. The economy is already slowing and new crises threaten. Most of first quarter growth likely was concentrated in January and February and the economy slowed, and actually may have contracted, in March. In the fourth quarter, inventory investments and defense purchases were uncharacteristically weak-the former rebounded and the latter declined much less in the New Year. Also, extraordinary year-end corporate bonuses and dividend payments, intended to soften the blow of...

The U.S. economy barely grew in the fourth quarter although a slightly better performance in exports and fewer imports led the government to scratch an earlier estimate that showed an economic contraction. Gross domestic product expanded at a 0.1 percent annual rate, the Commerce Department said on Thursday, missing the 0.5 percent gain forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll. The growth rate was the slowest since the first quarter of 2011 and far from what is needed to fuel a faster drop in the unemployment rate. However, much of the weakness came from a slowdown in inventory accumulation and...

Like many Americans, I keep wondering when the US economy will received a kick-start and get back on its feet. The Federal Reserve has certainly been quite active since 2008 in attempting to revive the economy, but has it worked? Here is a chart of The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators (blue) and the 10 year Treasury rate (green). While the LEI have been increasing with declines in the 10 year Treasury rate, it is a pale recovery compared with the 2001-2007 (Q3) under President Bush. Part of the problem with the inability to recover as quickly which we did...

The Japanese have said “Enough.” After a generation of stagnation, they’ve chosen an all-of-the-above policy to boost economic growth. The nation’s new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, is promising a “three arrows” strategy: bold monetary easing, increased public-works spending, and structural changes, such as regulatory reform. He’s throwing the ramen against the shoji and hoping something will stick. Some of those ideas are good ones, some probably aren’t. But it’s clear that Tokyo’s priority is growth, growth, growth. Time to get Nippon moving again. Nations probably never choose decline, at least not consciously. More likely they become victims of a creeping...

President Obama warned today that 2013 “can be a year of solid economic growth” but warned “self-inflicted wounds in Washington” would hurt progress. Translation: Republicans should surrender and allow more government spending, more “stimulus,” more debt, HIGHER taxes, etc. I don’t think that Republicans will fall for this ploy since it hasn't worked so far. Perhaps it would be easier for President Obama to deal with Grumpy Cat.

US economy actually SHRUNK in the 4th Quarter... Remember back in the closing weeks of the 2012 campaign... when Jack Welch questioned Labor Dept jobs stats that seemed to be cooked to prop-up Dear Leader on the eve of the election? If you'll recall, he stated (and was pilloried by the Left for it) that 'The economy would have to be growing at a breakneck speed' to make such numbers possible... and just as Welch had suspected- it ain't. But it's even worse than any of us thought: now you know what politicized federal agencies, the MSM, and the Obama campaign...

The American economy has had little to cheer about since the 2008 financial meltdown and the resulting recession. Recovery has been feeble, and many states continue to struggle. One bright spot in the general gloom, however, is Texas, which began shining long before 2008. Not only has Texas created jobs at a stunning rate; it has also — pace critics such as the New York Times' Paul Krugman — created lots of good jobs. Indeed, the rest of the nation could turn to the Lone Star State as a model for dynamic growth. Texan job creation has far outpaced the...

JAMIE DIMON: The Table Is Set For Booming 4% Growth, And 200K New Jobs Per Month Joe WeisenthalDecember 12,2012Jamie Dimon is on LIVE at the Dealbook conference talking fiscal cliff, the economy, and public policy. We're taking notes during his Q&A. Anything not in direct quotes. -- Says odds are politicians will do something between December 21 and December 28. -- On the impact of going over the cliff it might not be horrible... but it might be. -- 'We are one decision away from restoring our moral and fiscal authority in the world.... let's just do it."-- With...

I sometimes refer to the Magic Formula for economic prosperity. Here it is: Low Taxes, Stable Money. It’s only four words. That’s so it is easy to remember. The United States was founded on the principles of the Magic Formula. Until the introduction of the income tax in 1913, taxation was almost nonexistent. The principle of a gold-based currency was defined in the Constitution. The result was magical: the United States was the most successful country of the 19th and 20th centuries. We seem to have forgotten the Magic Formula today. Despite Republicans’ staunch efforts, we are drifting towards “austerity”...

China's Economy Will Overtake US In The Next Four Years, Says OECD Josephine Moulds, The GuardianNovember 9, 2012 China will overtake the US in the next four years to become the largest economy in the world, says a leading international thinktank. The Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said China's economy will be larger than the combined economies of the eurozone countries by the end of this year, and will overtake the US by the end of 2016. Global GDP will grow by 3% a year over the next 50 years, it says, but there will be large...

The most recent jobs report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) contains some disheartening statistics, reflecting just why Obama’s campaign is so off kilter. As usual, the media have chosen to focus on the two items most familiar to the general public, the monthly jobs number and the unemployment rate.

One of the most important issues in this year's election is energy. Our ongoing addiction to Mideast oil leaves us dependent on countries that are often unstable and hostile. Developing our own domestic energy resources and investing in renewable energy lessens this dependence. It also has the potential to create jobs and improve our trade deficit. The two presidential candidates have laid out energy plans that sound similar: both President Obama and Governor Romney want to continue to develop domestic energy resources, including renewable energy, with the aim of making the U.S. less dependent on foreign oil. But according to...

Our economy is lousy, the labor force participation rate is the lowest in 31 years, we’ve had 43 consecutive months with unemployment over 8 percent, and a record 47 million people are on food stamps, so one might expect President Obama would welcome as much help as he could get. Surely he would want private sector job creators – investors and entrepreneurs – to have the strongest possible incentives for turning around this Obama “recovery” where household incomes are falling faster than they fell in the Bush recession. But Obama’s priority is class warfare. That’s why he relentlessly denounces job...

When Bob Litan and I were discussing the premise of “Better Capitalism,” our sequel to “Good Capitalism/Bad Capitalism,” we thought we might build the book around the idea that entrepreneurs could push the economy to a sustainable 4% annual growth rate. In the depths of the Great Recession of 2008, this idea was decidedly out of sync with prevailing economic thinking. The grandees were declaring that the economy had somehow shifted as tectonic plates do. The new “frictional unemployment” was going to be 8% and not 4%, as in the past. The old average of 3% annual GDP growth was...

Is Eva Longoria right on tax policy? The very fact that she was given a prime time speaking slot at the DNC on the subject is a failure of Republicans. On that most important issue, tax policy and its effect on the economy and the deficit, Republicans have yet to make the case on what is best. If they don’t make the case between now and Election Day, Republicans may well lose this November. The prosperity issue, “the economy stupid,” is almost always the most important issue of any Presidential race...[Snip] Since 1980, tax policy has been at the center...

What makes cities grow? This question is the subject of countless magazine articles peddling lists of “best cities” and is fodder for consulting firms looking to sell advice. But in reality, the most reliable measure of a city’s future health is whether employment is expanding or contracting. Declining cities are not home to growing businesses that need people. Only true believers in the come-back story would move to Detroit, Cleveland, or Buffalo right now — the three big cities with the highest unemployment rates in the nation. So what features of a city correlate with expanding employment? The index-making experts...

President Obama argues that President Clinton’s economic record is proof that the current economy would grow if Congress passed the tax hikes he has long proposed. The American public should not fall for this misleading argument.The historical record is clear: The economy grew slower than it should have in the years after Clinton’s 1993 tax hike. The strong economic growth that is associated with his presidency occurred only after he agreed with Congress to cut taxes in his second term.President Obama’s cursory and errant analysis of recent history has serious implications for policymaking today. If Congress raises taxes based on...

RUSH: Last night on The CBS Evening News, they played a clip from an upcoming interview on CBS, Charlie Rose talking to Obama.  Charlie Rose said, "What do you think the lessons have been that might guarantee success for you in a second --" see, everything is oriented around this guy winning the election.  To hell with what happens to the country.  I guess Charlie Rose doesn't care.  I guess he's doing okay. He can't envision not doing okay.  He can't envision not being whatever he is today, so he doesn't care.  It's all, "what does it mean for Obama?" ...

A.K.A. Trickle-up, or Trickle-sideways- By: Larry Walker, Jr. -“The ignorance of one voter in a democracy impairs the security of all.” ~ John F. Kennedy -"Trickle-down theory" is a pejorative term in United States politics which refers to the idea that tax breaks or other economic benefits provided by government to businesses and the wealthy will benefit poorer members of society by improving the economy as a whole [1]. In the real world, and called by its proper name, supply-side economics has never failed. In fact, in spite of the ignorance of a few, any improvement in our economy since...