Free Republic

SUGAR LAND, Texas (AP) -- Rep. Tom DeLay won the GOP nomination to the House on Tuesday, beating three challengers in his first election since he was indicted and forced to step aside as majority leader. With 14 percent of precincts reporting, DeLay had 10,005 votes, or 64 percent. His closest challenger, environmental attorney Tom Campbell, had 4,049 votes, or 26 percent. "I have always placed my faith in the voters, and today's vote shows they have placed their full faith in me," DeLay said in a statement. "Not only did they reject the politics of personal destruction, but they...

Two days ago, I began to discuss what I believe to be the best way to predict congressional elections. Developed first by Edward Tufte and later refined by Gary Jacobson, the “Tufte/Jacobson theory” is starting point I have chosen. It argues that we can predict the outcome of a congressional election based upon three factors: exposure, presidential job approval and changes in real disposable income per capita (RDI/cap). It is time to supply the details, supplement the theory with some extra concerns, and make a prediction for 2006.Exposure is the extent to which the party of the President is above...

Most political commentators remain ambivalent about the chances of a Democratic capture of the House. Most are willing to say that they cannot capture the Senate – especially now that Lott has decided to return. It would require them to run the tables on every vulnerable and “vulnerable” incumbent Republican out there: Santorum, Dewine, Burns, Chafee, Talent. This would be at a time when incumbents are, historically speaking, as invulnerable as they have ever been, and Republicans are as invulnerable as they have been since Hoover. Most think this is impossible.But what about the House? To take the House, the...

To lose control of the House of Representatives, the Republican Party, which is now in its 12th year as the chamber's majority party, would have to suffer a net loss 15 seats in the November midterm elections. By historical standards, that is not a very tall order. On the other hand, if historical trends played out during the 2002 midterm elections, Republicans would not have added half a dozen seats in the House. To be sure, midterm elections have not been kind to presidents or their parties. For example, since 1862, there have been 36 midterm elections held during the...

FORGET MAGAZINES AND EDITORIAL PAGES. The only endorsements that really matter in the GOP House leadership contest are those from the members themselves, especially the members with clout. Two such Republicans are Jim Sensenbrenner, chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, and Mike Pence, head of the conservative Republican Study Committee (RSC), both of whom endorsed Arizona congressman John Shadegg this week. Shadegg, an erstwhile chief of both the RSC and (more recently) the Republican Policy Committee, remains a dark horse--but he's gaining steam. "The 'Big Mo' is on our side," says one pro-Shadegg Republican.The timing of Pence's public support came...

The following is a transcribed excerpt of "FOX News Sunday," Jan. 15, 2006. "FOX NEWS SUNDAY" HOST CHRIS WALLACE: President Bush's agenda and the fate of House Republicans in the fall elections could be determined by a fight on Capitol Hill. It's the battle to replace Tom DeLay in the very powerful post of House majority leader. There are three candidates and they're our exclusive guests today, acting majority leader Roy Blunt, Congressman John Boehner, and Congressman John Shadegg. Congressman Blunt did what most frontrunners do. He insisted on being interviewed separately. Congressman, we'll start with you. Good morning. U.S....

WASHINGTON — Democrats hope the stars are aligned for a big victory in the 2006 mid-term elections, saying more than astrology is on their side — recent Capitol Hill scandals and wavering popularity of President Bush is helping to boost their chances for a congressional takeover. "We're in a very strong position right now," said Phil Singer, spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. "We're poised to make gains." Winning a majority of the House or Senate would be unlikely based on the current numbers, say most political observers. Still, Democrats are riding a growing wave of disenchantment with Republicans...

House members left town for the year, leaving the Senate to determine the fates of a massive defense spending bill and a budget-trimming package, both of which the House passed in the early morning hours yesterday. In the Senate, Democrats are vowing to block the defense spending bill unless Republicans drop a provision that would allow oil and gas exploration in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). Senate Republican leaders late yesterday filed a motion to limit debate and force a final vote on the defense bill. Senators will vote on the motion tomorrow. Democrats are working to round up...

House Democratic leaders this week will try to block any effort by members to adopt an official Democratic Caucus position on the Iraq war, recognizing such a move would highlight internal party differences and invite new political troubles.

I am asking all FReepers who are outraged at Rep. John Murtha for his devastating political stunt yesterday to contact him. Murtha may not care to hear from you unless you are one of his constituents, but HE put himself on the National stage yesterday calling for the immediate withdrawal of our troops in Iraq and as Americans, we need to let him hear from us. If ever there was a time for us to ban together on this forum, we need to do it now. The anti-war drumbeats are becoming deafening and ALL OF US need to find our...

BATAVIA, Ohio — Jean Schmidt campaigned nearly nonstop in the 24 hours before the polls opened, hitting all-night restaurants in search of voters. The 53-year-old Republican wore out staffers half her age, and she was still going strong as the sun came up, casting her own vote, attending Mass and then continuing to campaign until around 11 p.m., when it became clear she had won the special election for Congress. On Sept. 6, she'll be sworn in to replace Rob Portman, a 12-year Republican representative who left to become U.S. trade representative. "If you want to do something, nothing holds...

When Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Tex.) hustled onto the House floor Wednesday night, he knew that he was about five votes short of the number needed to pass a trade agreement that had become the toughest bill of the year for the Republican leadership. "Your adrenaline is pumping 100 miles an hour -- you're excited about the prospect of winning a big one," he recalled in an interview. "At the same time -- especially in something like this, when you go on the floor knowing you don't have the votes -- there's this seed of doubt back there that we...

House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.), who has been publicly vague about whether he will give up the reins at the end of this Congress, told a group of supporters last week that he plans to run again and serve as speaker for the rest of President Bush's second term. Republican officials said they are relieved by the development because it postpones what is likely to be a brutal succession fight that would be a distraction from next year's midterm elections, which are historically tough for the party in power, and from Bush's domestic agenda, which is already having a...

There is much hand-wringing now in Washington about the inability of Republicans and Democrats to compromise even on seemingly unimportant issues. I think it is the inevitable result of long-term trends going back 100 years. The movement started in 1913 with the 17th Amendment to the Constitution. This requires election of senators by popular vote. As provided by the Founding Fathers, senators previously were elected by state legislatures. Before the 17th Amendment, senators represented states as states. This made the states much more significant players in national politics -- collectively coequal to the national government in our federal system. But...

H.R.418 REAL ID Act of 2005 (Introduced in House) Beginning January 26, 2005 SECTION 1. SHORT TITLE. TITLE I--AMENDMENTS TO FEDERAL LAWS TO PROTECT AGAINST TERRORIST ENTRY SEC. 101. PREVENTING TERRORISTS FROM OBTAINING ASYLUM. SEC. 102. WAIVER OF LAWS NECESSARY FOR IMPROVEMENT OF BARRIERS AT BORDERS. SEC. 103. INADMISSIBILITY DUE TO TERRORIST AND TERRORIST-RELATED ACTIVITIES. SEC. 104. REMOVAL OF TERRORISTS. TITLE II--IMPROVED SECURITY FOR DRIVERS' LICENSES AND PERSONAL IDENTIFICATION CARDS SEC. 201. DEFINITIONS. SEC. 202. MINIMUM DOCUMENT REQUIREMENTS AND ISSUANCE STANDARDS FOR FEDERAL RECOGNITION. SEC. 203. LINKING OF DATABASES. SEC. 204. TRAFFICKING IN AUTHENTICATION FEATURES FOR USE IN FALSE IDENTIFICATION...

Below is the floor peech of Rep. Ric Keller (R.-Fla.) regarding Electoral Vote count delivered on January 6, 2005. There's a wise saying we've used quite a bit in Florida over the past four years that the other side would do well to learn -- GET OVER IT. Isn't it ironic that the only people who refuse to "move on" are the people from MoveOn.org and their hero Michael Moore? My colleagues across the aisle have two sides to choose from, the John Kerry side that acknowledges the election is over and President Bush has won. Or the Michael Moore...

Alright, I've been tasked with the unusual-but very solemn-obligation of reporting back to FreeRepublic Land on the progress of Paul's campaign to unseat that noxious, vile, contemptible, harridan of a congresswoman, Nydia Velasquez; she of the twelfth congressional district, representing constituents in New York County. And Queens County. And Kings County.I know, I feel for all you people who happen to live in that general vicinity. Now, you freepers perusing this thread are by this point, probably asking yourselves-quite reasonably, in my estimation-why the Paul Rodriguez campaign would entrust such an important duty to such a complete and utter numbskull....

To: National Desk Contact: Jeff Lungren or Terry Shawn, 202-225-2492, both of the House Committee on the Judiciary WASHINGTON, July 14 /U.S. Newswire/ -- The House Judiciary Committee today approved by a 21-to-13 margin legislation that would ensure States continue to decide state marriage policy. H.R. 3313, introduced by Rep. John Hostettler (R-Ind.) and amended today by the Committee, removes the federal courts' jurisdiction to hear cases involving the provision in the 1996 Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) that allows States to decide whether to legally recognize out-of-state same-sex marriage licenses. Article III, Section 2, clause 2 of the Constitution...

Best-selling author Brad Meltzer's latest Washington thriller, The Zero Game, involves congressional staffers running betting pools on upcoming votes (naturally, things go awry, and the next vote is for…danger!). Since its publication, he's heard from lots of Capitol Hill folks regaling him with descriptions of real betting games that go on. One of which involves the loquaciousness of Houston's own (very loquacious) U.S. Representative Sheila Jackson Lee. (Actually, Meltzer wouldn't identify the specific congressperson in question; one current Hill worker, though, says, "Lee is the only member I've heard of the game being played with.") How does it work? There's...

Elect, Never Appoint U.S. Representatives On June 20, 2003, we issued the following alert: "The clock is ticking. A well-orchestrated, well-financed campaign to quickly amend the Constitution is underway. A proposed constitutional amendment would take away your right to vote for your U.S. representative. We can't and won't stand by and let our republic be gutted by this amendment." This alert was in response to the "Continuity of Government" (COG) report made public on June 4, 2003. The report calls for a constitutional amendment that would allow for the appointment of members of the U.S. House of Representatives under vaguely...