Free Republic

RALEIGH — Is North Carolina ready to be an early stop on the road to the White House? Thanks to recent legislation, the Tar Heel State has abandoned its traditionally late presidential primary, held in May. State lawmakers couldn’t let Iowa, New Hampshire, and especially South Carolina have all the fun. So they separated North Carolina’s presidential contest from the state’s other primaries and moved it to the Tuesday after South Carolina’s Saturday primary. Although some of the dates remain tentative, here’s how the nomination battles may unfold according to Josh Putnam, an Appalachian State University political scientist who maintains...

The next two years are a good time to be a local candidate or party organization in Iowa and New Hampshire. The political action committees supporting Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Ted Cruz and Hillary Clinton have already started doling out cash to the campaigns of potential supporters in the states with the earliest presidential contests of 2016. Leadership PACs — like the one Jeb Bush, the former Florida governor, will be forming soon — provide a natural vehicle for sending campaign money to state and local candidates and committees in key early presidential states. Several potential presidential candidates, through their...

I enjoy a good “maybe Huckabee’s going to be president” story the way I enjoy a good campfire ghost story. They’re BS, we all know they’re BS, but there’s nothing more satisfying than watching the terror build in your audience as you tell it. They’re even better than “Romney’s 2016!” stories. Well done, Scott Conroy. This one’s the political equivalent of “The Golden Arm.” [T]here is little doubt that a substantial segment of the South Carolina Republican electorate remains culturally and ideologically aligned with Huckabee—giving him a distinct chance of success in a state where he retains a wide swath...

There was a time when I thought that Mike Huckabee had a chance to win over enough “somewhat conservative” voters that, when added to his pre-existing base among conservative white evangelicals, would give him a good chance to win the 2016 Republican nomination. I don’t think that chance exists anymore (if it ever did). He hasn’t done any of the maneuvering he would need to do in order to expand his base of support. Thirteen months is not a long time and he has shown no inclination to make the moves he would need to make in order to expand...

There’s no doubt the Huck will need bucks if he’s going to make a successful run for the GOP nomination, but that’s not the only challenge he faces.Last night, Mike Huckabee bid adieu to his show on Fox, and made his interest in the 2016 Republican presidential nomination a matter of public record. Unlike former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, Huckabee is not immediately forming an exploratory committee. Still, the prospect of a Huckabee candidacy should be taken seriously. He finished second in 2008 behind John McCain, and maintains a reservoir of good will among...

What’s past isn’t necessarily prologue, but the outcomes of some recent political battles – and a look at who will be coming and going when Congress reconvenes in January – give us a pretty good sense of the dynamics that will shape the next two years of American politics. So while we don’t have a crystal ball, here’s our preview of what you can expect in the final quarter of Barack Obama’s presidency. 1. Gridlock, and an Endless Game of Chicken The past two sessions of Congress have been the least productive in our history, and the next likely will...

Few questions in American political debate recur with the regularity of this one: Can Democrats win the white working class? As soon as it’s time to start contemplating the next election, commentators begin to ask this question, demanding of Democrats that they explain why this time will be different and they’ll be able to win over those white voters. I’m going to argue that Democrats don’t have to win the white working class, so they shouldn’t worry themselves too much about it. But first, here’s the latest example of the genre, in today’s Wall Street Journal, which gets a little...

Since forming a presidential exploratory committee earlier this month, Jeb Bush is being considered a serious Republican candidate for president. But as George Will astutely pointed out last week, Bush has two significant hurdles; his support for Common Core and immigration reform. Will correctly points out that his support for the latter is far more nuanced than people understand. Bush does not advocate for more immigration through family reunification, which is the agenda of radical immigration activists, but instead for meeting employment needs, and he supports a path to legal status instead of citizenship. However, his support for Common Core...

On Sunday on ABC’s “This Week,” Daily Beast contributor Kristen Soltis Anderson made an amazing statement. She said Republicans “understand that they need to start cultivating new and fresh talent.” Fascinating. Because the GOP has been cultivating new and fresh talent for years now and is — finally — poised to look to a whole new generation of Republican leaders, quite possibly starting with the 2017 occupant of the White House. The past few election cycles have been grim. The Republican Party went with Sen. John McCain because, well, it was his turn (just like in 1996 with Sen. Bob...

The end of 2014 marks, as the ends of all years do, the creation of “best of” and “worst of” awards. It was in that spirit that the American Thinking awarded former Alaska governor, former vice presidential candidate, and most powerful female politician on the planet, the “American Achiever of 2014” award in a piece on Saturday. As she contemplates her political future, such as a possible run for the presidency, Palin can indeed look back on 2014 as a year in which much was achieved. When one describes Palin as the most powerful female politician on the planet, one...

I’ve been dismissive of Jim Webb’s prospects for winning the Democratic presidential nomination. But Jacob Heilbrunn’s column on Webb, and Steve’s commentary on that column, made me take another look. On second look, I still don’t see Webb getting very far. Will female Democrats favor Webb — currently in his third marriage and the author of what some might consider a sexist novel — over Hillary Clinton? Not likely. Will African-Americans favor Webb — so proud of his Scotch-Irish heritage — over the wife of “our first black president”? Not likely. Will white southern Democrats favor Webb? Arguably. But he’s...

The tea party has, to date, been a uniquely Republican movement, with would-be progressive analogs fizzling and fading. “Occupy Wall Street” seemed more interested in drum circles than political engagement. And do you remember the Coffee Party? I didn’t think so. The lack of a tea party left is in part because having the White House helps paper over a lot of intraparty divisions. And it’s also in part a function of the parties’ differing structures, with the GOP’s recent purity pushes abetted by a media-entertainment complex that incentivizes ideological fidelity over electability as well as the conservative movement’s historical...

It is set to be one of the toughest US presidential races and certainly its most expensive. With 687 days to go to election day, the 2016 campaign is already rich with storylines as candidates hone their messages and handshakes for the gruelling primary schedule ahead. Will voters warm to another contest between America’s two modern political dynasties in Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush? Or will other, less well-known candidates capitalise on unrest in the US over its widening economic and social fault lines and growing disquiet over its role as the world’s policeman? For Republicans, the field will be...

Is the tea party a movement or just a mood? That was the question posed by Weekly Standard columnist and Fox News contributor Steven Hayes as he kicked off a panel at the Heritage Foundation celebrating the 5th anniversary of the tea party. Hayes and his co-panelists, Heritage Action for America CEO Michael Needham and University of Virginia professor of politics James Ceaser, all agreed that the tea party is in fact a movement. Moods, as Hayes noted, don’t last for five years. Recent polls regarding national tea party support show the panel’s assessment is correct. An NBC News/Wall Street...

Due to an increase in the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program’s budget, formerly known as food stamps, President Obama is requiring all SNAP agencies to add a sales team. The sales team will be responsible for telemarketing, cold-calling eligible Americans and persuading them to join the entitlement program that already services 50 million citizens and visa-holders.

National Review’s Eliana Johnson, in writing about Texas Senator Ted Cruz, begins her article this way: To hell with the independents. That’s not usually the animating principle of a presidential campaign, but for Ted Cruz’s, it just might be. His strategists aren’t planning to make a big play for so-called independent voters in the general election if Cruz wins the Republican nomination. According to several of the senator’s top advisers, Cruz sees a path to victory that relies instead on increasing conservative turnout; attracting votes from groups — including Jews, Hispanics, and Millennials — that have tended to favor Democrats;...

In the aftermath of President Obama giving the Castro regime diplomatic recognition, Senator Marco Rubio has been pretty much everywhere, including multiple television appearances and authoring this Wall Street Journal op-ed. According to Senator Rubio, “By conceding to the oppressors in the Castro regime, this president and his administration have let the Cuban people down, further weakened America’s standing in the world and endangered Americans.” Whether or not one agrees with Rubio’s position–and I’m sympathetic to it–he makes his case clearly, intelligently, and with passion. Despite some differences with him now and then–I found his advocacy for the tactics that...

Insiders agree the party has lost focus on ‘bread and butter’ economic issues.Elizabeth Warren may have captured the imagination of the Democratic Party’s base, but many in her party worry that it does not have a message that can reach beyond its most loyal supporters. In recent weeks, Democratic operatives have begun to voice concerns that the 2014 midterms made plain the limits of an approach that failed to reach beyond minority groups or those who are reflexively liberal. And yet what should come next is not yet totally clear. “You have to answer the mail about what people’s concerns...

The Bush family has had its share of disappointment and elation in Iowa and New Hampshire. George H.W. Bush finished a dismal third in the 1988 Iowa caucuses, before rebounding in New Hampshire. George W. Bush, however, won the 2000 caucuses, only to get thumped by John McCain in New Hampshire. Now, with Jeb Bush’s announcement on Tuesday, a third Bush seems to be preparing to face the demanding voters of the first two states in the presidential selection process, with uncertain expectations. But a chorus of top Republicans in Iowa and New Hampshire said that the former Florida governor...

Early national presidential primary polls are, at best, rough indicators of who will eventually become the party's standard-bearer. But the Republican primary field is especially scattered heading into the 2016 cycle, which is one reason why Jeb Bush's recent moves toward a candidacy are getting so much attention. In fact, the GOP field is more scattered at this stage in GOP primaries since at least 1987, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. The table below looks back at early Post-ABC surveys in the past five open Republican primary contests. A few findings help give a sense of just...