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The Bush-Cheney campaign sought to lower expectations about the impact of Kerry's selection of a running mate and the effect on public polls. In an e-mail sent Monday, Matthew Dowd, Bush's chief strategist, predicted that the race will "swing wildly" in Kerry's favor within a month. Dowd's memo included a chart showing that the challenger typically has gained a 15-point bounce in polls when the running mate is announced and the spotlight of the convention shines on the nominee. These two developments "can have a dramatic (if often short-lived) effect on the head-to-head poll numbers," Dowd wrote. "In fact, historical...

POLITICAL MEMO atthew Dowd, President Bush's chief campaign strategist, is not just the man who conducts the president's polling. He also works to control public perceptions about where the presidential race stands, perhaps more aggressively than many other campaign aides in his position. When Mr. Bush has risen sharply in the polls, Mr. Dowd has stepped in pre-emptively with memorandums widely sent to Republican officials, supporters and journalists to dampen expectations and warn that the country remained closely divided. "President Bush's approval numbers will again fall back to more realistic levels fairly quickly," he wrote in a publicly released memo...

Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry would defeat President Bush if the election were held today, according to a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll that shows serious vulnerabilities for the president. The survey, taken Thursday through Sunday, reflects the battering Bush has received from the Democratic presidential contenders for months and the questions raised in the past week about the administration's rationale for going to war with Iraq. Even as a snapshot at a difficult moment, the poll shows perils for Bush early in the election year: • Kerry defeated Bush 53% to 46%, a lead outside the poll's margin of error. North Carolina...

<p>WASHINGTON (CNN) -- A GOP memo distributed to Republicans across the country predicts that President Bush's high approval ratings will soon "drop to more realistic levels" and that some polls may show him behind Democratic rivals, but cautions that such a development should not be cause for alarm.</p>

RNC RESEARCH Letter From Chairman Racicot And Attached Memo From Matthew Dowd on President Bush's Agenda Dear Friend,  President Bush continues to focus on his agenda of ensuring America's economic, national and homeland security. While the President remains focused on America's priorities, much will be written about his level of support among the American people. Today I received a memo that puts much of the political hyperbole surrounding that support into perspective, I thought it was important to share with you. President Bush has received unprecedented approval from the American people however, these ratings will settle over time. It is...