Posted on 07/05/2004 2:02:13 PM PDT by nwrep
The Bush-Cheney campaign sought to lower expectations about the impact of Kerry's selection of a running mate and the effect on public polls.
In an e-mail sent Monday, Matthew Dowd, Bush's chief strategist, predicted that the race will "swing wildly" in Kerry's favor within a month.
Dowd's memo included a chart showing that the challenger typically has gained a 15-point bounce in polls when the running mate is announced and the spotlight of the convention shines on the nominee.
These two developments "can have a dramatic (if often short-lived) effect on the head-to-head poll numbers," Dowd wrote. "In fact, historical analysis suggests John Kerry should have a lead of more than 15 points coming out of his convention."
Dowd did not say in his memo what factors might help Bush close the gap, or when that might happen.
Kerry is expected to name a No. 2 for the party ticket before the Democratic National Convention opens in Boston on July 26, and an announcement could come as early as this week.
It's a set-up of expectations that won't be met. Where in the world would those 15% come from? Bush has a solid base of just under 50%.
I htink I am going to be ill.
I think Bush's strategist shouldn't be running around making such predictions, he should be working on a strategy to make sure it does NOT happen.
He should be fired.
Have hope everyone. We will make it through this...
The idiots are much more bearable when Bush is ahead in the polls.
I agree. Unlesshe knows who Kerry will pick and that they expect the reaction to temporarily be in the Communists favor. It must be Hitlery for a 15 point swing.
I think he is being honest and setting expectations based on previous trends.
Take a deep breath......this sounds like they are setting Kerry up.....now what happens if Kerry doesn't get that 15pt bump?
Bush's entire election team comes across as light-weights.
Whoaaaaa! Did you see that this article is from AP?
My guess is that Kerry will get a bump, but no way near 15%. When Kerry doesn't get the 'expected' 15%, it makes Kerry's support look weak.
15% isn't happening.
40% of the people in this country are 100% for GWB. The alternative media (Rush, Sean, etc..) has cemented us in place in this regard that you can throw out the book on history.
Worst case post-convention poll might show Kerry by 8 or 9 IMO. Something like 49-41.
15% bump? Kerry will be lucky to get half. Nothing is going to push him near 55-60% in the polls, convention bumps included.
That'd be say, Bush 42%, Kerry 57%. No way does Kerry get 57% in real voter support.
That is nonsense. Bush has a solid base of around 40%, similar to Kerry. A 15 point swing in Kerry's (or Bush's favor) is very conceivable.
McAwful was saying he expected something like a 12 point lead. so its good to raise those expectations and then dash it if it doesn't come thru.
http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a39a0dd66179a.htm
Flashback:
Polls: Gore Jumps, Biggest Bounce in 40 Years
Flashback:
http://www.canoe.ca/CNEWSUSElection0008/02_poll.html
Tracking poll suggests Bush getting a bounce from convention
Scaling back government and fiscal responsibility are more than petty third party issues. They used to be Republican values.
My first reaction was sort of like FairOpinion's...i.e., "what in the world is Matt Dowd thinking?". Then I got around to my second thought, which was closer to yours, that maybe he's trying to sandbag Kerry. Devious. Let's hope it works.
Kerry is spending 170,000,000 in the next month not to mention M Moore's slanderous campaign and Soros's Moveon crap. As I said earlier, time to tune out the TV, cancel newspaper subscriptions and go fishing. Come back rested and ready.
W'04
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