Posted on 07/05/2004 2:02:13 PM PDT by nwrep
I'm thinking Kerry will go ahead 52-44 in national polls when all is said and done. But by the time of the RNC convention in early September, Bush will be back up by 50-45.
Otherwise he peaks way to soon. </sarcasm>
Thanks, jimbo, I started breathing again.
I also think that FatMoore's F911 will start having a pendulum effect. People who see it will nod their head enthusiastically, and then start entertaining doubts about the propaganda. In particular, folks will start looking around for confirmation to what Moore claims, and won't find it, just criticism, even from honest guys on the left. It seems to me that at some point folks will feel sheepish about having fallen for it, and if the economy is going well, and Iraq seems to be going well (which is definitely the case since the handover), then these folks may end up changing their vote from Kerry to Bush... particularly is Bush can ask THIS question:
Would you feel another 9/11 is more or less likely if John Kerry were President in 2005?
I expect a large swing towards Kerry due to the fawning coverage of the media, but your suggestion is not too bad. Bush has actually made a comback in the last month, but the campaign for most of the year has been lackluster.
This is based on the theory that the average American has a tiny attention span and can only remember what they saw on TV ten minutes ago. After the Democrat convention in 2000 Al Gore had a big surge. I knew one woman who said that for the first time in her life she was thinking of voting for a Democrat. Now I did not watch the convention but Al Gore had been a presidential candidate as long ago as 1988. What new looks could possibly have come from the convention? The thing that does scare me about this election is that with all the talk of what a jerkoff Kerry is, he is still tied for the lead. If he ever does start campaigning effectively what happens. Of course if the econmy stays good and Iraq improves Bush should win.
Don't take it so hard. This is the Bush camp playing the expectations game. There's only a few % points out there to swing. Kerry will pick up a few of the undecideds between now and the week after the 'Rat convention. But they'll still be largely undecided and after priming the pump for a huge 15% point swing, when that doesn't happen the Bush campaign can rightly point out that the public is not very excited about the 'Rat nominee.
Bush is going to clean Kerry's clock in November.
Easy. They will just start polling "registered and unregistered humanoids"
All kidding aside they will release polling data showing Kerry leading by 20 points among adults nationwide or a 15% lead among voting age adults.
It won't mean a thing because the numbers for likely voters will be static.
This election will be a referendum on the incumbent president, like most presidential elections are.
What a complete joke.
They won't *need* another 9/11 if Kerry is elected--Kerry will surrender to the Islamofascists without a fight.
Bush team knows its Hillary. Damn, just seeing that ***** in the White House again is making me sick.
The "Gore jump" was:
Forty-seven percent of likely voters said they would vote for Vice President Gore and Conn. Sen. Joe Lieberman, compared to 46 percent of those who picked Texas Gov. George W. Bush and former Defense secretary Dick Cheney.
It's way past time for the Bush team to pull out all the stops. They sat on their hands, while the Democrats were bashing Bush about Iraq for a year, doing a great deal of damage to Bush's ratings and poll numbers. The Bush team said, they really will get with the program, after there is a Dem nominee -- well, Kerry has been around pounding Bush for several months now, and the Bush team only makes a few feeble attemps, they mostly react, instead of really going on the offensive. Where were they, why didn't they change the topic, while the two months long Abu Ghraib was on the front pages for two months?
Now they are telling us that they will continue to sit on their hands, while Kerry is going to get a 15 point boost?
Do you really think that with the divided electorate, if Kerry gets that kind of a boost, Bush will be able to close it and actually win?
I am one of Bush's most ardent supporters, I want him to win, I dread a Kerry presidency.
The Bush team better get very strong and proactive not soon, but right now. If they aren't willing, Bush should fire the lot of them and get some people with some fire in them.
If they let the convention become a 4 day angerathon of venom and Bush bashing it could have a detrimental effect on thier numbers.
I used to marvel at the Dems power to fool people, but I am geniunely unsure if they can control themselves this year.
Yeah, BUT this is KERRY, I doubt he is going to be enjoying any sudden change of hearts.
Except the rats are going to pick the smartest, sexiest, most compassionate, efficientest, bestest, most noble human that has ever lived to be VP. It doesn't matter who that is, as soon as he (she is picked), that will be the case.
They could pick a lawn chair and press would orgasm over how great that pick is.
"light-weights" is an understatement. "Wimps" are closer.
"Then I got around to my second thought, which was closer to yours, that maybe he's trying to sandbag Kerry."
That's just wishful thinking -- as I said in another post -- they keep telling us they will get their act together 'tomorrow' -- at this rate it will be AFTER Nov. 2.
Look at the recent history for the past year -- they just let the Dems attack Bush and define the issues, they barely reacted.
I am no particular fan of Dick Morris, but he said, he started Clinton's reelection campaign 14 months before the election -- that is the way to win, not by conceding all the advantage to the opponent, falling further and further behind, than wishing for a miracle.
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