Bush Strategist: Race will "swing wildly" in Kerry's favor within a month [15 pts lead]

AP ^ | July 5, 2004 | LIZ SIDOTI, Associated Press Writer

[Peach]

All President Bush needs to do is get out there with a few major, prime time speeches about how AQ was working with Saddam going back to the 90's, reference Clinton's federal indictment of OBL, mention just a handful of items that link the two madmen and support for the war, and Bush, will increase by large percentages.

BUT, he needs to get out there and do it himself. We can't do it for him. He should take along Lieberman, McCain, Powell to a few of these press conferences and they will bolster everything Bush has to say.

[Mike Darancette]

Dowd's memo included a chart showing that the challenger typically has gained a 15-point bounce in polls when the running mate is announced and the spotlight of the convention shines on the nominee.

I don't think that will happen this time since the media has been in full campaign mode since Dean tanked. Kerry wouldn't be announcing his VP now if he thought he could get a 15 point bounce at the convention.

[Right_in_Virginia]

I think Bush's strategist shouldn't be running around making such predictions, he should be working on a strategy to make sure it does NOT happen.

There really isn't a way to prevent this swing in public opinion. Three events will get major play: -- a multi-million dollar ad blitz by Kerry (he's got to use or lose lots of money before the convention)---his VP pick and ---the convention itself.

All three will combine and give a temporary boost and lead to Kerry.

I think the Bush strategist is right to prepare us.

[mombonn]

If he ever does start campaigning effectively what happens.

He campaigns most effectively while snowboarding in Sun Valley on a PRIVATE vacation. Every time he opens his mouth in public, he sinks in the polls.

I can't wait for the debates!

[FairOpinion]

"Bush team knows its Hillary."

Even that shouldn't give Kerry a 15 point bump -- the Bush team should make sure of that, instead of acting as total defeatists.

They almost sound, as if they are getting ready to explain why Bush lost.

I would literally fire them all, and get some real fighters in there.

I do not want to see a repeat of the Bush-Clinton election.

[POA2]

"Bush's entire election team comes across as light-weights."

You said! - The reelection team of GWB has been awful - they continue to do him a disservice - They ran the worst reelection campaign in history from OCT 2003 till March 2004 - And that is the only reason we are in such a dog-fight -

Had a competent reelection campaign been run since OCT 2003 - GWB would be sitting with a continual 5 to 7 pt lead - Yet, we are where we are - at that is in a complete dogfight with a 20 year-washed up -loser-NE liberal Senator -

It is probably the case that this is nothing more then trying to "set up high expectations" for the Kerry Convention - but with that said, the underlying "BS" behind it....is more of the problem - Clinton never played these type silly games with Dole - His people never said "we expect to be down much of the summer" - "we expect to be down by 15pts!" - Losers talk like this -

Losing the premise on the economy was just mind-boggingly dumb by the GWB camp - Now having to "hope" perception catches up with reality by Nov is just a ridiculous type of reelection strategy! ANd that is what we are "waiting" or "hoping" on....and that is it -

Just heard a local DEM on the radio down here in NC - said it will be Edwards (VP) - for what that is worth.

[jimbo123]

http://washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20040705-025958-1448r.htm

Bush strategist: Expect Kerry bounce



Washington, DC, Jul. 5 (UPI) -- The Bush campaign's chief strategist warned supporters to expect the Democrats to get a bounce in the polls as the post-primary season winds down.

Gallup presidential election polls since 1976 show the out-of-power party's "vice presidential selection and nominating convention can have a dramatic (if often short-lived) effect on the head-to-head poll numbers," Bush chief strategist Matthew Dowd said in a memo released Monday.

An analysis of historical trends, Dowd said, predicts Sen. John F. Kerry, D-Mass., the Democrat's likely presidential nominee, "should have a lead of more than 15 points coming out of his convention."

According to most recent public polls the presidential race remains a dead heat.

"Assuming Kerry enjoys the average challenger's bounce," which has been 15.4 percent since 1976, "we should expect the state of the race to swing wildly to (Kerry's) favor by early August," Dowd said.

The Democrats apparently hold the same view. On Sunday, Democratic National Chairman Terry McAuliffe predicted Kerry would, when the Boston nominating convention ends, be ahead by eight to 12 points.

[FairOpinion]

"You said! - The reelection team of GWB has been awful - they continue to do him a disservice - They ran the worst reelection campaign in history from OCT 2003 till March 2004 - And that is the only reason we are in such a dog-fight -"


==

I totally agree. And they are not doing much better now.

[rwfromkansas]

I don't understand how the campaign is lowering expectations by wildly giving Kerry a 15-pt. lead. That seems to be raising expectations to me.

[Right_in_Virginia]

Prepare yourself. Kerry's going to get a bounce and jump temporarily ahead.

Would you prefer the Bush team appear surprised by this or expecting it as part of a normal cycle?

[bayourod]

What have your third party canndidates ever done to scale back government?

[FairOpinion]

"we expect to be down by 15pts!" - Losers talk like this -

===

Exactly right. I agree with everything you say 100%. I had the same reaction.

[bilhosty]

let's argue for the 15% Kerry lead as an historical fact. Then when he does not get it we can point out that his gains are very below average.

[NittanyLion]

I think Bush's strategist shouldn't be running around making such predictions, he should be working on a strategy to make sure it does NOT happen. He should be fired.

The event which will drive this temporary bump are outside his control. He's right to prepare the public for this bump; I see it as analogous to a company preparing the market when earnings will fall short of expectations.

[Servant of the 9]

It's a set-up of expectations that won't be met.

No kidding.

Kerry will be lucky to get a 5 point bump for one week on the VP pick. Some of his candidates could actually drive his numbers down.

The convention won't gain him 3 points if the VP is already known.

So9

[demlosers]

he's trying to sandbag Kerry.

Exactly.

[California Patriot]

This doesn't have to happen. Dowd is clearly the GOP's
designated "expectations" spinner. But instead of playing that tricky game, everyone should focus on supporting Bush and attacking Kerry. Dowd's memos risk damaging morale.
Let's not do the same.

[COEXERJ145]

I predicted this two weeks ago. It doesn't matter if Kerry really gets a bump or not although he probably will. Dole got a nice bump when he named Jack Kemp as his running mate but that quickly faded. Regardless of whether or not Lurch gets a bump, the media will puke up some polls telling us he got a 10% bump when he names his VP and a 15%-20% bump during and after the convention.

[FairOpinion]

"The event which will drive this temporary bump are outside his control."


Only because they are inept or worse.

They should come up with events, news, etc. ot overshadow Kerry and the Dem convention.

Next they'll tell us how it was outside their control that Bush lost the election.

Are they inept, or does Hillary has some FBI files on some of them?

I really think the Bush reelection team is that bad -- judge from the results so far. Bush should be ahead 10 points, not even, when the challenger is THE most liberal Senator in the US Senate with ZERO accomplishments.

[Salvation]

i just got this in an email from GeorgeWBush.com TO: BC '04 CAMPAIGN LEADERSHIP FROM: MATTHEW DOWD, CHIEF STRATEGIST RE: EXPECTED KERRY BOUNCE As the post-primary season winds down and Kerry's VP selection and convention approach, I wanted to share with you what we should expect polls to show in early August. An examination of Gallup polls in presidential elections since 1976 reveals that a challenger's vice presidential selection and nominating convention can have a dramatic (if often short-lived) effect on the head-to-head poll numbers. In fact, historical analysis suggests John Kerry should have a lead of more than 15 points coming out of his convention. As the below chart illustrates: 1. An average of the most recent public polls shows the race is a dead heat. 2. Assuming that Kerry enjoys the average "challenger's bounce[1]" (15.4% since 1976), we should expect the state of the race to swing wildly to his favor by early August. Democrats themselves expect Kerry to have a sizeable lead after his convention. On Face the Nation on Sunday, DNC head Terry McAuliffe said, "We are about to pick our vice presidential nominee. We're about to go into a convention of four days and I think once we finish up our convention, I think you're going to see Senator Kerry anywhere from eight to twelve points up."