[thoughtomator]

It's a set-up of expectations that won't be met. Where in the world would those 15% come from? Bush has a solid base of just under 50%.

[FairOpinion]

I htink I am going to be ill.

I think Bush's strategist shouldn't be running around making such predictions, he should be working on a strategy to make sure it does NOT happen.

He should be fired.

[presidentbowen]

Have hope everyone. We will make it through this...

[bayourod]

I dread putting up with all the Third-Party wackos who will be continously posting "I told you so" and "it's because Bush didn't support my little single issue"

The idiots are much more bearable when Bush is ahead in the polls.

[tkathy]

Bush's entire election team comes across as light-weights.

[GiveEmDubya]

15% bump? Kerry will be lucky to get half. Nothing is going to push him near 55-60% in the polls, convention bumps included.

[tallhappy]

Somehow I doubt Kerry will be up by 15.

That'd be say, Bush 42%, Kerry 57%. No way does Kerry get 57% in real voter support.

[Liberty Valance]

Kerry is spending 170,000,000 in the next month not to mention M Moore's slanderous campaign and Soros's Moveon crap. As I said earlier, time to tune out the TV, cancel newspaper subscriptions and go fishing. Come back rested and ready.

W'04

[SamAdams76]

C'mon! This is a classic case of lowering expectations. No doubt Kerry will get a big bounce with his VP selection in the upcoming DNC convention. But 15 points? C'mon!

I'm thinking Kerry will go ahead 52-44 in national polls when all is said and done. But by the time of the RNC convention in early September, Bush will be back up by 50-45.

[chilepepper]

Count me as those who don't actually believe this... I think that Kerry perhaps swing 15 points, from about 7 behind to 7 in front, but that it will be short lived and things will return to more or less how they are now after the GOP convention...

I also think that FatMoore's F911 will start having a pendulum effect. People who see it will nod their head enthusiastically, and then start entertaining doubts about the propaganda. In particular, folks will start looking around for confirmation to what Moore claims, and won't find it, just criticism, even from honest guys on the left. It seems to me that at some point folks will feel sheepish about having fallen for it, and if the economy is going well, and Iraq seems to be going well (which is definitely the case since the handover), then these folks may end up changing their vote from Kerry to Bush... particularly is Bush can ask THIS question:

Would you feel another 9/11 is more or less likely if John Kerry were President in 2005?

[Mulder]

Kerry's VP selection really won't matter. Unless it's Hitlery, which in case, I would expect them to win in November.

This election will be a referendum on the incumbent president, like most presidential elections are.

[The Bandit]

Yeah, BUT this is KERRY, I doubt he is going to be enjoying any sudden change of hearts.

[CWW]

History (i.e., past polls at this time -- Gallup, etc...) tell us that, depending on who the VP choice is, the swing will be at least 5% and as high as 15%, but likely in th 8-10% range. Three weeks after the convention, it's almost even again, then the Repub. convention.

[Peach]

All President Bush needs to do is get out there with a few major, prime time speeches about how AQ was working with Saddam going back to the 90's, reference Clinton's federal indictment of OBL, mention just a handful of items that link the two madmen and support for the war, and Bush, will increase by large percentages.

BUT, he needs to get out there and do it himself. We can't do it for him. He should take along Lieberman, McCain, Powell to a few of these press conferences and they will bolster everything Bush has to say.

[Mike Darancette]

Dowd's memo included a chart showing that the challenger typically has gained a 15-point bounce in polls when the running mate is announced and the spotlight of the convention shines on the nominee.

I don't think that will happen this time since the media has been in full campaign mode since Dean tanked. Kerry wouldn't be announcing his VP now if he thought he could get a 15 point bounce at the convention.

[rwfromkansas]

I don't understand how the campaign is lowering expectations by wildly giving Kerry a 15-pt. lead. That seems to be raising expectations to me.

[bilhosty]

let's argue for the 15% Kerry lead as an historical fact. Then when he does not get it we can point out that his gains are very below average.

[Salvation]

i just got this in an email from GeorgeWBush.com TO: BC '04 CAMPAIGN LEADERSHIP FROM: MATTHEW DOWD, CHIEF STRATEGIST RE: EXPECTED KERRY BOUNCE As the post-primary season winds down and Kerry's VP selection and convention approach, I wanted to share with you what we should expect polls to show in early August. An examination of Gallup polls in presidential elections since 1976 reveals that a challenger's vice presidential selection and nominating convention can have a dramatic (if often short-lived) effect on the head-to-head poll numbers. In fact, historical analysis suggests John Kerry should have a lead of more than 15 points coming out of his convention. As the below chart illustrates: 1. An average of the most recent public polls shows the race is a dead heat. 2. Assuming that Kerry enjoys the average "challenger's bounce[1]" (15.4% since 1976), we should expect the state of the race to swing wildly to his favor by early August. Democrats themselves expect Kerry to have a sizeable lead after his convention. On Face the Nation on Sunday, DNC head Terry McAuliffe said, "We are about to pick our vice presidential nominee. We're about to go into a convention of four days and I think once we finish up our convention, I think you're going to see Senator Kerry anywhere from eight to twelve points up."

[deport]

July 30— George W. Bush’s “convention bounce” has begun early, lifting him to an 11-point lead over Al Gore — Bush’s largest advantage in the presidential race since January.

---

Gore Gets the Bigger Bounce

Al Gore has stepped out of Bill Clinton's shadow and back into political contention, bouncing to a five-point advantage over George W. Bush among registered voters, 50-45 percent. It's Gore's first edge in the presidential race since March.

Gore's gain – most of it among the key swing group, independents – more than erases the 14-point lead Bush built up at his own convention. It's a bigger bounce than Bush himself managed, and bigger than usual in polls measuring convention bounces since 1968.

Up and down

[INSENSITIVE GUY]

That is the dumbest comments they could ever make!They should be more like democrats and tell lies claiming that all these polls are false and that Kerry is losing support in all areas.