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It will be hard for the Cubs to come back from this 3-1 deficit. As the Cavaliers taught us earlier this year, a 3-1 lead isn’t insurmountable, but Elo rates the Cubs’ the total chance of winning the Series at a measly 15 percent. (That’s a smaller chance than FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast model currently gives Donald Trump to win the White House.) But if Chicago is going to have any chance of a Series win, they’ll have to awaken their bats in Sunday’s game.

Nate Silver has Trump's odds of winning at 29%. Been slowly climbing all day. He has been wrong about Trump every time but the new polls are making him move.

Link only due to copyright issues: http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/us-election-2016-statistician-nate-silvers-big-donald-trump-mistake-20161030-gseaye.html

The Florida geography is also working against us. Hillary has 53+ Field Offices and they’re empty of volunteers. This lack of enthusiasm is showing up in the voting responses and it’s killing us. The “cell phones” rationale will only hold out for so long.

Dunh-dunh-duuuun Last week, we discussed the fact that Hillary’s odds of victory were collapsing - despite massively outspending her opponent. At the time, her chances of taking the White House had fallen to just over 53%. The data came to us via Nate Silver’s 538 site. Long a favorite among Democrats, Silver is a statistician who rose to national prominence during the 2008 presidential race, when he correctly predicted 49 of 50 state outcomes. In 2012, he went 50 for 50. A month ago, he gave Hillary Clinton a 96% chance of victory. How times have changed:

Clinton chance of winning: 51.8% Trump chance of winning: 48.2%

(TWEET-AT-LINK) A model from election-forecasting whiz Nate Silver shows Donald Trump once again closing in on Hillary Clinton, as he did right after the party conventions in July, and warned that Clinton's lead is "a lot less safe" than President Obama's lead in the polls in 2012. Silver's FiveThirtyEight website currently gives Clinton a 58.1 percent chance and Trump a 41.9 percent chance of becoming president. That's not the closest the two candidates have been, as Silver's widely-respected projection showed them neck-and-neck on July 30. Clinton opened a wider lead over Trump in August in Silver's model, but Trump has...

Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning the White House are still near an all-time low in the FiveThirtyEight forecasts, although they’re up a smidge from earlier in the week. Our polls-only forecast gives her a 59 percent chance of beating Donald Trump, while our polls-plus model shows her with a 58 percent chance. Some interested parties are pointing to individual polls as evidence of a Clinton rebound, but a closer look at all the data released over the past three days suggests that those people are stretching.

Outspending Trump 53:1 Prior to September, Hillary had already tried everything she could think of. She introduced herself, she re-introduced herself, she had a soft reboot, she re-re-introduced herself, and she still hadn’t managed to seal the deal with the American people. That meant there was only one thing left to do. When you’re a trainwreck candidate that no one wanted in the first place, you have no choice but to enact “The Jeb! Doctrine.” Hillary decided that cash would be enough to make you forget about the health concerns, the bad plans, her own achievement-free record, and the fact...

Statistics site 538 adjusted its swing state forecast for Ohio Monday, and the results are looking better for Republican nominee Donald Trump. Trump overcame a 5 point deficit mid-August to lead Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by three points in the state, according to the latest Ipsos poll published in September. Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2016/09/05/nate-silver-trump-improving-in-ohio-hillary-slipping/#ixzz4JQZrW0e1

Statistician Nate Silver on Monday said Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump would be favored to win if the general election occurred today. If the election were today, Trump would likely win. But Clinton's still favored long-term: https://t.co/2uB2oqpXy4 pic.twitter.com/HUTQMaVrBx — FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) July 25, 2016

If the election were held Monday, Donald Trump would likely win. That's what renowned statistician Nate Silver projected on Monday for his data journalism outlet FiveThirtyEight. In his "Now-cast" election model for who would win if ballots were cast Monday, Silver gave the Republican nominee a 57.5% chance of winning the presidency. Presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton had a 42.5% chance of securing the nation's highest office if voters were to take to the polls Monday. Silver's model had Trump winning in the swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire. He would win 285...

BEGIN TRANSCRIPT RUSH: If I've had one person send it to me I've had five people send me this idea that Nate Silver is out predicting that Trump doesn't have a chance to win the presidency. Have you seen this, Snerdley? (interruption) Well, yeah. Let me tell you something: Nate Silver used to be a god in the New York Times, and he's not a pollster. He's a renowned pollster analyst. Meaning he found algorithms and software programs and bots and all kinds of things to analyze all the data in all the polls. And what he would do is...

Nate Silver has spoken: Hillary Clinton will be the next President. The famed political pollster — whose past presidential predictions have been freakishly accurate — said Wednesday he gives the presumptive Democratic candidate a 79% chance of winning the White House come November. Her loud-mouthed Republican rival, Donald Trump, has only a 20% chance of winning, Silver said. “We're kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she's taking a 7-point, maybe 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver, founder of the political analysis website FiveThirtyEight, said on “Good Morning America.”

Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday. FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but...

natesilver (Nate Silver, editor in chief): I’m not ready to accept yet that we’ll have a whole new map this time around. There will probably be some differences, yes. But my prior is that we’ll still have mostly the same swing states as last time, and I haven’t seen persuasive enough evidence yet to convince me otherwise. Here’s why: These polls are showing huge, enormous numbers of undecided voters. In that Monmouth poll of New Jersey, for instance, it’s Clinton 38 percent and Trump 34 percent, leaving 28 percent undecided, voting third party or saying they’ll sit out the general...

Trump’s nomination shows the need for a more rigorous approach.~~~SNIP ~~~1. Our early forecasts of Trump’s nomination chances weren’t based on a statistical model, which may have been most of the problem. 2. Trump’s nomination is just one event, and that makes it hard to judge the accuracy of a probabilistic forecast. 3. The historical evidence clearly suggested that Trump was an underdog, but the sample size probably wasn’t large enough to assign him quite so low a probability of winning. 4. Trump’s nomination is potentially a point in favor of “polls-only” as opposed to “fundamentals” models. 5. There’s a...

In September 2015, writer and statistician Nate Silver urged people to "calm down" about the possibility of Donald Trump winning the Republican presidential nomination. Two months later, he wrote that the media should "stop freaking out about Donald Trump's polls" and that Trump's odds were "higher than 0 but (considerably) less than 20 percent." Six months after that, after Ted Cruz had dropped out of the race but before John Kasich had done so, Silver wrote: "Donald Trump is going to win the Republican nomination."

Nate Silver was a once respected pollster. His polls were accurate a lot of the time, though they always had a left wing bias. Now, Silver has completely lost it, predicting a Mark Zuckerberg-David Petraeus ticket. Not only does Silver predict such a ridiculous idea as a presidential ticket, he also claims that Zuckerberg-Petaeus would win 428 Electoral College votes.(GRPHIC-AT-LINK)Earth to Nate Silver, Mark Zuckerberg isn’t even 35 years old yet and therefore not eligible to be President of the United States. What dope Nate Silver is smoking, I’d like to get my hands on some. This guy has completely...

Facebook is spending millions to keep Mark Zuckerberg alive At Facebook, security is a top priority — that is, security for CEO Mark Zuckerberg. The social-networking giant spent more than $5 million last year on bodyguards and other measures to protect Zuckerberg and his growing family, according to a regulatory filing. The cost to protect Zuckerberg topped $6.2 million in 2014, up from $3.2 million the previous year, according to the filing. In all, the company has shelled out $14.5 million on security for the CEO over the past three years. Apparently, Zuckerberg presents a much bigger target than rival...