Free Republic

Michelle Obama says she wants nothing to do with politics now, but oddsmakers still say she’s got the best chance of any Democrat of winning the White House in four years. Bovada, an online gambling site, says the odds of Mrs. Obama winning are 12-to-1. The next-best Democrats, Sen. Tim Kaine and Elizabeth Warren, get odds of 14-to-1. By contrast three Republicans have higher odds: President-elect Donald Trump is a 2-to-1 bet to repeat, while Vice President-elect Mike Pence and House Speaker Paul D. Ryan are each given 10-to-1 odds.

William Hill claims 65 per cent of all the bets it has taken on the race have been for the Donald to win, despite him being the overwhelming underdog. The bookmaker said a similar pattern was at play in the lead up to Britain's Brexit vote, which was shockingly won by the 'Leave' side. 'It was the case that consistently throughout the EU Referendum campaign, some two thirds of the money gambled was for "Remain", but in terms of individual bets, it was around two thirds for "Leave",' spokesman Graham Sharpe said. 'The stats currently show 71 per cent of...

A question I often am asked is: "Who would you bet on to win the presidency?" Personally, I don't bet on politics, but here's my current take on the 2016 presidential race—with, of course, the caveat that we don't know which campaigns will turn out the best in terms of organization, strategy, tactics, or execution, much less which candidates will step on land mines along the way. The Democratic nomination appears fairly straightforward. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is now the prohibitive favorite. If her early stumbles during her book tour, or remarks like the one she made about...

Ex-NBA referee Tim Donaghy recently accused the NBA of coercing referees to help the Brooklyn Nets defeat the less glamorous Toronto Raptors in their first round playoff series. This echoes previous claims by Donaghy about the NBA manipulating games. The most notorious example is Game 6 of the 2002 Western Conference finals, when the two-time defending champion Los Angeles Lakers staved off elimination by defeating the Sacramento Kings. Donaghy alleged that two referees (understood to be Dick Bavetta and Bob Delaney) fixed the game. Donaghy was convicted of betting on games so he may not seem a reliable accuser, but...

WASHINGTON – Will it be Hillary vs. Rudy? Mitt vs. Barack? Or will the 2008 presidential race involve two currently undeclared candidates? A new poll placing Fred Thompson in the lead nationwide among Republicans and increasing speculation that former presidential candidate Al Gore might enter the race give a whole new look to the campaign. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds former Tennessee Sen. Thompson earning support from 28 percent of likely Republican primary voters. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani attracts support from 27 percent. While Thompson's one-point edge may be statistically insignificant, it is the...

Virginia's tight Senate race is also one of the most vicious. On Thursday, Virginia Republican Senator George Allen came out denouncing books his opponent, James Webb, had written years ago depicting among other things a father having sexual relations with his teenage son. The Washington Post writes that with 10 days remaining before Election Day, the allegations about sex-laced passages in Webb's writings inject a new question into a campaign that has centered almost exclusively on character issues: Should the author of a fictional work who runs for office be personally held to account for the scenes in his books?...

In the 1980s, I was attending a panel at an annual meeting of the American Association for Public Opinion Research when a discussion of pre-election poll releases erupted. Some participants urged that the public be given several trial-heat numbers: for the whole sample, for likely voters, for most likely voters, etc. One notable attendee, the now-deceased Burns Roper, skeptically and even grumpily dismissed this proposal as likely to cause confusion and branded it an attempt by pollsters to avoid accountability for a single “prediction” of the election outcome. Because of personal and professional respect for this son of the founder...

After last night's Presidential debate in Tempe, Arizona, Ladbrokes, the world famed London based oddsmakers, has fine-tuned their projections and now see President George W. Bush remaining in the White House after January 20th and quotes odds of 4/7. For those wishing to back challenger Senator John Kerry, Ladbrokes current odds are 5/4. The announcement, made through Ladbrokes American spokesperson, reflects Ladbrokes cutting the odds from 11/8 on Senator Kerry based of strong wagering for the Senator over the past week. According to Warren Lush, Ladbrokes, Chief Oddsmaker, "We see the President emerging victorious in 31 states and Senator Kerry...