World Famed Oddsmakers Favors George Bush to Win Election

Ladbrokes ^ | October 14, 2004 | PRNewswire

[West Coast Conservative]

After last night's Presidential debate in Tempe, Arizona, Ladbrokes, the world famed London based oddsmakers, has fine-tuned their projections and now see President George W. Bush remaining in the White House after January 20th and quotes odds of 4/7. For those wishing to back challenger Senator John Kerry, Ladbrokes current odds are 5/4.

The announcement, made through Ladbrokes American spokesperson, reflects Ladbrokes cutting the odds from 11/8 on Senator Kerry based of strong wagering for the Senator over the past week.

According to Warren Lush, Ladbrokes, Chief Oddsmaker, "We see the President emerging victorious in 31 states and Senator Kerry in 19 plus Washington DC. This election is garnering by far more interest than any previous election globally. Ladbrokes believes that oddsmakers headquartered outside the United States currently have booked the equivalent of almost $10-million with one Canadian punter placing over $100,000 on the re-election of George Bush in June when the odds were 8/11."

As to prospects for Senator Kerry, Mr. Lush continued, "The Democrats have not been favorites at any point, but as of today there is pronounced on going momentum behind the Kerry candidacy following the three debates."

[West Coast Conservative]

For whatever it's worth.

[reagan_fanatic]

Heh heh heh. Kerry's toast.

[DiscoJohn]

French Toast!

[68-69TonkinGulfYachtClub]

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[dead]

Heh heh heh. Kerry's toast.

[West Coast Conservative]

...one Canadian punter placing over $100,000 on the re-election of George Bush in June when the odds were 8/11.

That's one smart Canuck.

[drangundsturm]

Those odds make it approximately a 63% chance of a bush win. That is somewhat higher than current quotes on IEW or Tradesports. Of course, Tradesports was beaten down today by some very suspicious looking trades, in one case approximately 10,000 contracts were sold off in a matter of minutes, depressing the price all the way down to 10 (i.e. a 10% chance of bush winning). It quickly recovered to the mid 50s but has not climbed back all the way yet. IEM is now trading in the high 50s. There is currently an arbitrage play available between IEM and Tradesports. Tradesports contract should theoretically trade a few percent higher than IEM because they are slightly different contracts, meaning if you believe IEM is correct then tradesports should be around 60 right now, close to what this oddsmaker has set.

It is possible the tradesports action today was the result of a bookie laying off a large pro-bush bet, using tradesports to hedge his position, sort of like an arbitrage between a private bet and a public market. That's the only scenario I can think of that is logical for the way that trade went down.

[Stirner]

How do British odds work? If Bush is 4/7 does that mean if you bet 7 you get your original bet of 7 back plus 4, i.e. 11?

[badmrbunny]

yes.

[justshutupandtakeit]

So it is about 2 to 1 for Bush and 4 to 1 against Jean Fraud.

[savedbygrace]

C. S. Lewis told of a woman who, when warned during WWII of impending bread rationing, replied, "Oh, we never eat bread. We always have toast."

(From memory. Not a word for word quote.)

[Puzzleman]

It seems to me that when you translate odds of 4/7 into probabilities, you get 63.6%. And 5/4 becomes 44.4%. Those two add to 108% reflecting the 8% that the odds maker collects. To get a true probability, you need to divide the 63.6% and the 44.4% by 1.08. You end with a probability of Bush being elected of 58.9% and Kerry with 41.1%.

[drangundsturm]

You're right, thanks for the correction. Note that the 58% probability of a bush win matches very closely with IEM right now (although IEM is slightly different parameter, probability that bush takes the 2 party popular vote).

[cpforlife.org]