Free Republic

A New York Times/Siena College poll finds that Joseph R. Biden Jr. is ahead of the president by 14 points, leading among women and nonwhite voters and cutting into his support with white voters. Published June 24, 2020Updated

GOP will retain control of the House. Video.

If you’re a close reader of political news, the website longroom.com might very well have come to your attention in the last week. The site hosts a polling page that purports to “remove the bias in the polls,” which mostly has the effect of showing Donald Trump up in the presidential race, though most polls show Hillary Clinton leading him by solid single-digit margins. If you’ve been a bit distracted by the Olympics and don’t have a clue what LongRoom is, no harm, no foul. In fact, that’s probably for the better, because the site’s methodology is askew and its...

Donald J. Trump 43.4% 0.6% Hillary Clinton 42.8% — Trump +0.6% LongRoom Unbiased - Methodology The LongRoom Polling Analysis uses the latest voting data from each state's Secretary of State or Election Division. The voting data is kept current by incorporating the latest updates from each state as they become available. This means that the LongRoom Polling Analysis accurately reflects the actual voting demographics, precinct by precinct, county by county, and state by state. Because the LongRoom Polling Analysis is exclusively data based, it makes it possible to demonstrate from the crosstabs of an individual poll whether that poll is...

For much of this election cycle, Democrats complained the polls were biased against them. They said the polls were failing to represent enough minority voters and applying overly restrictive likely-voter screens. They claimed early-voting data was proving the polls wrong. They cited the fact that polls were biased against Democrats in 2012. The Democrats’ complaints may have been more sophisticated-seeming than the ”skewed polls” arguments made by Republicans in 2012. But in the end, they were just as wrong. The polls did have a strong bias this year — but it was toward Democrats and not against them. Based on...

During the 2012 election, and to a lesser extent in the 2010 cycle, it became popular for poll-watchers on the right to dig into the sample data of individual polls, compare that sample available exit polling, and apply some judgment as to whether or not that poll was likely to accurately reflect the results on Election Day. In 2012, however, too many on the right began reflexively engaging in this practice for every poll with the aim of diving preferred results out of an otherwise disappointing poll. A few thoughtless types on the left would shriek, and not without...

When last we left Dean Chambers, the Duffield, Va., resident was licking his wounds in Virginia’s coal fields, trying to figure out how he’d fooled himself and much of a nation into believing the Mitt Romney would win the election. Chambers, 45, the founder of UnskewedPolls.com, ultimately decided he had incorrectly forecast that too few Democrats would vote. He admitted this mistake. Now, it appears he’s reconsidering. Recently he launched a new website, BarackOFraudo.com. It seeks to understand how four states that he had incorrectly predicted would go to Romney — Virginia, Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania — actually went to...

BEGIN TRANSCRIPT RUSH: Here's Jeremy in Toledo as we start on the phones. I'm glad you called, sir. Great to have you with us. CALLER: Hey, Rush, how are you? RUSH: Very good. Thank you. CALLER: Hey, I gotta tell you first off, I can't begin to express to you what an honor it is to talk to you after being a listener for over 20 years. RUSH: Thank you, sir, really very much. CALLER: Nor can I express or do I think you'll ever be able to truly understand everything you have done over the years means to me...