Beam me to Planet Gore !
Posted on 10/27/2009 10:07:42 AM PDT by ClimateDepot.com
'Warming had a natural origin...CO2 is 'not guilty' Tuesday, October 27, 2009 - By Marc Morano – Climate Depot
Reprint of new scientific paper: (Full pdf paper available here.)
THE SUN DEFINES THE CLIMATE
(Habibullo Abdussamatov, Dr. Sc. - Head of Space research laboratory of the Pulkovo Observatory, Head of the Russian/Ukrainian joint project Astrometria - (translated from Russian by Lucy Hancock) Dr. Abdussamatov is featured on page 140 of the 2009 U.S. Senate Report of More Than 700 Dissenting Scientists Over Man-Made Global Warming.)
Key Excerpts: Observations of the Sun show that as for the increase in temperature, carbon dioxide is "not guilty" and as for what lies ahead in the upcoming decades, it is not catastrophic warming, but a global, and very prolonged, temperature drop. [...] Over the past decade, global temperature on the Earth has not increased; global warming has ceased, and already there are signs of the future deep temperature drop. [...] It follows that warming had a natural origin, the contribution of CO2 to it was insignificant, anthropogenic increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide does not serve as an explanation for it, and in the foreseeable future CO2 will not be able to cause catastrophic warming. The so-called greenhouse effect will not avert the onset of the next deep temperature drop, the 19th in the last 7500 years, which without fail follows after natural warming. [...] We should fear a deep temperature drop -- not catastrophic global warming. Humanity must survive the serious economic, social, demographic and political consequences of a global temperature drop, which will directly affect the national interests of almost all countries and more than 80% of the population of the Earth. A deep temperature drop is a considerably greater threat to humanity than warming. However, a reliable forecast of the time of the onset and of the depth of the global temperature drop will make it possible to adjust in advance the economic activity of humanity, to considerably weaken the crisis.
Excerpts: Experts of the United Nations in regular reports publish data said to show that the Earth is approaching a catastrophic global warming, caused by increasing emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. However, observations of the Sun show that as for the increase in temperature, carbon dioxide is "not guilty" and as for what lies ahead in the upcoming decades, it is not catastrophic warming, but a global, and very prolonged, temperature drop. Life on earth completely depends on solar radiation, the ultimate source of energy for natural processes. For a long time it was thought that the luminosity of the Sun never changes, and for this reason the quantity of solar energy received per second over one square meter above the atmosphere at the distance of the Earth from the Sun (149 597 892 km), was named the solar constant.
Until 1978, precise measurements of the value of the total solar irradiance (TSI) were not available. But according to indirect data, namely the established major climate variations of the Earth in recent millennia, one must doubt the invariance of its value.
In the middle of the nineteenth century, German and Swiss astronomers Heinrich Schwabe and Rudolf Wolf established that the number of spots on the surface of the Sun periodically changes, diminishing from a maximum to a minimum, and then growing again, over a time frame on the order of 11 years. Wolf introduced an index (“W”) of the relative number of sunspots, computed as the sum of 10 times number of sunspot groups plus the total number of spots in all groups. This number has been regularly measured since 1849. Drawing on the work of professional astronomers and the observations of amateurs (which are of uncertain reliability) Wolf worked out a reconstruction of monthly values from 1749 as well as annual values from 1700. Today, the reconstruction of this time series stretches back to 1611. It has an eleven-year cycle of recurrence as well as other cycles related to onset and development of individual sunspot groups: changes in the fraction of the solar surface occupied by faculae, the frequency of prominences, and other phenomena in the solar chromosphere and corona. Analyzing the long record of sunspot numbers, the English astronomer Walter Maunder in 1893 came to the conclusion that from 1645 to 1715 sunspots had been generally absent. Over the thirty-year period of the Maunder Minimum, astronomers of the time counted only about 50 spots. Usually, over that length of time, about 50,000 sunspots would appear. Today, it has been established that such minima have repeatedly occurred in the past. It is also known that the Maunder Minimum accompanied the coldest phase of a global temperature dip, physically measured in Europe and other regions, the most severe such dip for several millennia, which stretched from the fourteenth to the nineteenth centuries (now known as the Little Ice Age).
The search for a relationship between large climate variations and phenomena observed in the Sun led to an interest in finding a connection between periods of change in the terrestrial climate and corresponding significant changes in the level of observed solar activity, because the sunspot number is the only index that has been measured over a long period of time.
Determinative role of the Sun in variations in the climate of the Earth
The Earth, after receiving and storing over the twentieth century an anomalously large amount of heat energy, from the 1990's began to return it gradually. The upper layers of the world ocean, completely unexpectedly to climatologists, began to cool in 2003. The heat accumulated by them unfortunately now is running out.
Over the past decade, global temperature on the Earth has not increased; global warming has ceased, and already there are signs of the future deep temperature drop (Fig. 7, 11). Meantime the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere over these years has grown by more than 4%, and in 2006 many meteorologists predicted that 2007 would be the hottest of the last decade. This did not occur, although the global temperature of the Earth would have increased at least 0.1 degree if it depended on the concentration of carbon dioxide. It follows that warming had a natural origin, the contribution of CO2 to it was insignificant, anthropogenic increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide does not serve as an explanation for it, and in the foreseeable future CO2 will not be able to cause catastrophic warming. The so-called greenhouse effect will not avert the onset of the next deep temperature drop, the 19th in the last 7500 years, which without fail follows after natural warming.
The earth is no longer threatened by the catastrophic global warming forecast by some scientists; warming passed its peak in 1998-2005, while the value of the TSI by July - September of last year had already declined by 0.47 W/m2 (Fig. 1). For several years until the beginning in 2013 of a steady temperature drop, in a phase of instability, temperature will oscillate around the maximum that has been reached, without further substantial rise. Changes in climatic conditions will occur unevenly, depending on latitude. A temperature decrease in the smallest degree would affect the equatorial regions and strongly influence the temperate climate zones. The changes will have very serious consequences, and it is necessary to begin preparations even now, since there is practically no time in reserve. The global temperature of the Earth has begun its decrease without limitations on the volume of greenhouse gas emissions by industrially developed countries; therefore the implementation of the Kyoto protocol aimed to rescue the planet from the greenhouse effect should be put off at least 150 years. [...] Consequently, we should fear a deep temperature drop -- not catastrophic global warming. Humanity must survive the serious economic, social, demographic and political consequences of a global temperature drop, which will directly affect the national interests of almost all countries and more than 80% of the population of the Earth. A deep temperature drop is a considerably greater threat to humanity than warming. However, a reliable forecast of the time of the onset and of the depth of the global temperature drop will make it possible to adjust in advance the economic activity of humanity, to considerably weaken the crisis. For complete paper see here:
Related Links:
UN Fears (More) Global Cooling Commeth! IPCC Scientist Warns UN: We may be about to enter 'one or even 2 decades during which temps cool' - September 4, 2009
Flashback: 'Sun Sleeps': Danish Scientist declares 'global warming has stopped and a cooling is beginning...enjoy global warming while it lasts' - Sept. 2009
Climate Fears RIP...for 30 years!? - Global Warming could stop 'for up to 30 years! Warming 'On Hold?...'Could go into hiding for decades' study finds – Discovery.com – March 2, 2009
Paper: Scientific evidence now points to global COOLING, contrary to UN alarmism
Meteorologist: 'Global cooling in its 8th year, declining ocean heat content, sea level rises slowed or stopped, sun in a deep slumber' – April 30, 2009
Geologist: 'Records of past natural cycles suggest global cooling for first several decades of the 21st century to about 2030' – June 5, 2009
Astronomers: 'Sun's output may decline significantly inducing another Little Ice Age on Earth' – August 15, 2009
Indian Geologist Dissents -- launches website: 'Enjoy Global Warming: Its natural' - Sept. 2009
BFL
Mankind should fear governments, not climate.
the Russians should fear it more than us. How many degrees can the earth lose before there are no grain crops in Russia?
No Mas Vodka
Thanks. Interesting point!
Or at all useful based on ice core data. Ice core data shows C02 rise follows temperature rise, not the other way around.....
This scares the crap out of me.
Time to buy more rice!
Zactly!
(Almost tag-line material 8^)
Still, if the pattern of the past revealed in the ice cores holds, we're not yet to the next interglacial maximum.
We will beg and pray for global warming if we end up with global cooling.
This is an excellent paper, but it won’t matter. Global warming isn’t about climate, and it isn’t concerned with the welfare of mankind. It is a scheme to transfer wealth and power to centralized rulers, increasing their ability to rule and the dependency the ruled will have on them. Our Founders had a vision of a new world order based on liberty, freedom and individualism. It was the freeing of man to achieve his greatness, the antithesis of the old world concept that there were rulers and the ruled. The new regime has a very different agenda, a different vision that sees the necessity of a new, enlightened ruling class, and it is them. Global warming is a way to transfer power from the old world to their new world vision. They don’t care if the ruled are cold or hot, dead or alive, as long as power and wealth continues to be theirs.
Am I the only one who struggles with a theory that includes effects that precede the cause? How is it that the warmth comes first and the CO2 that causes the warmth follows it?
It would seem much more reasonable to conclude that the rise in CO2 is an effect, like the carbonation leaving your diet Pepsi as it reaches room temperature. But that would leave you to search for a reasonable explanation for the global temperature rise, something like the variations in the amount of solar energy being emitted.
But then no one could blame mankind, and that is unacceptable.
Of course, Texas, Louisiana, et al, will add 100 miles more or so of land as the Gulf of Mexico recedes (the water is locked up in the glaciers).
Imagine Galveston 100 miles inland. Lots of very productive cropland possible on what used to be ocean bottom.
The CO2 could be released from tundra that is thawing as the Earth warms.
The chill is on.
Ice ages can occur in as little 20 years and last hundreds of years.
That’s a good point, when we get deep into the next ice age a lot of continental shelf will be land again. Many of us think there’s going to be some good archeology done in the future on the shelf around the world.
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