Horowitz: Simple arithmetic demonstrates that the epidemic, outside nursing homes, is essentially over

https://www.conservativereview.com/news/horowitz-simple-arithmetic-demonstrates-epidemic-outside-nur ^ | May 7, 2020 | Daniel Horowitz

[conservative98]

We are weeks past the peak of coronavirus hospitalizations, yet the reported national death numbers keep rising 2,000 or more every single day. It made no sense to anyone who has followed the curves in any other country, but now we have our answer. The Hartford Courant reported that 90% of all deaths in Connecticut last week were in senior care facilities. This explains why these increased deaths don’t make sense with the reality of empty hospitals in most places.

This revelation should change everything we know about the current state of affairs with coronavirus. Governors are justifying the continued lockdown by pointing to rising deaths, sometimes significantly, in many states and counties. But it now appears, using simple arithmetic, that in most states, the overwhelming majority of deaths are in nursing homes, and in some states and counties, nearly every new death is in a senior facility. And in fact, even in nursing homes, it appears that while numbers are being recorded now, the actual deaths occurred earlier during the peak. Nothing else matters until this fact comes to life.

80%-90% of new deaths, 50%+ total deaths are in senior care facilities

As I reported yesterday, not only do deaths in nursing homes now compose more than 50% (and in some states as high as 80%) of total deaths from the beginning of the entire epidemic, that percentage is sharply increasing in every state day by day. This means that nearly all the new deaths, depending on the state, are occurring in nursing homes.

[cherry]

along the way, they've also started including deaths from several weeks ago WITHOUT LAB RESULTS as a covid death....

how can you make sense of the CFR if they change the way they calculate them?

we as a society have got to start thinking rationally about death....we all MUST die....the older and more diseases we accumulate the quicker we are on our way out...

this is biology...this is nature...and if we don't die of one thing, it'll be the other....

there's a reason long term patients are in nursing homes...

[goodnesswins]

I doubt nursing homes (seniors doctors, really) give appropriate doses of vit D3/k and Vit C either.

[Sicon]

This whole COVID thing is going to be used as justification for becoming a “cashless” society - something the left has wanted for years. Can’t have people spreading viruses with that dirty money! Of course, once there’s no cash, the government has complete control over you, even more than they do now.

[spintreebob]

COVID-19 targets 2 types. The elderly, in and out of Nursing Homes. Just check the assisted living and senior living complexes that are not Nursing Homes.

The second type that COVID-19 targets is those with already weakened bodies. Check out those with HIV, lung disease, heart disease, bad kidneys and livers. Obesity is a common feature. They are both obese and have weakened bodies.

COVID-19 doubly targets those who are both elderly and obese. Check out the hundreds of elderly in Nursing Homes in Albany GA. The obese died much more than the slender.

Many of the slender test positive. Everyone in those Nursing Homes was exposed. But not everyone died.

Among the dead are also many healthcare workers who are not particularly obese or in poor health.

The public policy we face is whether in response to a COVID-19 type threat, the government responds with a one-size-fits-all approach? Or if the response is more targeted, as the threat is?

Albany GA is the perfect example that should drive the policy discussion. In February a person with the symptoms of COVID-19 walked into the hospital. The hospital sent him home. The person died. A very large funeral was held. Everyone at that funeral caught the coronoavirus. So there was a second funeral. Many attended that funeral.

It was the elderly who died. So it was their friends from the Nursing Homes that attended the funeral as well as the non-elderly.

There is a second pattern. Nursing Homes bus their resident to church on Sunday. There, they exchange germs with residents of other Nursing Homes, and with the general public.

Funeral Homes and Nursing Homes are licensed to protect the public health. What role should they play in restricting the exposure of the elderly and vulnerable to the disease that was reported in January to target the elderly and vulnerable?

Should there be no restriction? Or Restriction of everyone? Or targeted restriction of just some?

[cherry]

"The widespread medical neglect of the elderly in America is a scandal."

we took my grandma into our house with one br, poor income, 6 kids.....she stayed thru her cancer in her own room....we kids doubled up/tripled up in our two bedrooms...boys/girls...with my little brother spending some time between my sister and I....

people shouldn't complain about nursing home care or "care of the elderly" unless they're willing to keep them in their home themselves and care for them.....

[cherry]

this is an apparently highly contagious virus that gives mild or no symptoms to most people...but hits the frail elderly or the sickly the worse...

isolate the vulnerable...

life is just a chance, and we're not guaranteed a certain number of yrs anyway...

[SkyPilot]

The libs have no problem with people going to grocery stores, hardware stores and the like, but they think it is too dangerous to stand in line to vote.

Dont' forget liquor stores and abortion mills. They're "essential" donchaknow.

Also, in both of the above, you need a photo ID.

ID for voting? Well, that's racist.

[amihow]

I agree. It is hard, but not impossible.

My grandfather took my Mom and Dads bedroom with a cowbell to ring. Haha.

My sibs had a sleepover. My parents had a fight. My Mom fell asleep on sofa with 6 boys in sleeping bags in front of fireplace.

In A.M. Grampa woke up. Rang bell over and over. Got up. Toddled to living room. Saw Mon on sofa and boys on floor. Toddled to kitchen called cops. Said had been a mas murder in living room.

First Mom knew, cop shaking her awake asking what going on.

Rest of story just as funny, but...

Crazy family!

[a real Sheila]

Math is not my strong suit, but I did some ciphering, based on the information available on the JH Covid website.
Since NY is by far the state worst hit and with the highest number of deaths, I chose to take it out of the equation.

331,002,651 U.S. POPULATION
19,450,000 NY STATE POPULATION

JOHN HOPKINS WEBSITE
8,408.788 total tested
1,291,100 confirmed
77,490 TOTAL DEATHS

NEW YORK
1,121,543 TESTED
330,407 CONFIRMED
26,243 DEATHS

7,287,245 TOTAL TESTED MINUS NY
960,693 CONFIRMED CASES MINUS NY
51,246 DEATHS MINUS NY

331,002,651 U.S. POPULATION
19,450,000 NY STATE POPULATION
311,552,651 POPULATION MINUS NY

960,693 / 7,287,245 = 13.18% OF POPULATION CONFIRMED

13.18% POPULATION CONFIRMED
X 311,552,651 POPULATION (WITHOUT NY)
= 41,062,639 PROBABLY HAVE OR HAD COVID

THEREFORE
51,246 / 41,062,639

= 0.12% FATALITY RATE

Anyone here who is good at math, please look at this and the JH website and tell me what your fatality rate is (without NY).

[FreeReign]

And in fact, even in nursing homes, it appears that while numbers are being recorded now, the actual deaths occurred earlier during the peak. Nothing else matters until this fact comes to life.

Worldometer has been adding earlier deaths to recent daily totals making it appear that the recent daily deaths are higher than they actually are.

For example, on Wednesday, Worldometer tacked on 521 additional deaths in NYS and on the national total, increasing the national total from about 2k deaths to about 2.5k deaths.

[lowbuck]

From the start I have said that none of this makes sense unless the government know s something that they can't or won't tell us.

By now the latter would have leaked out so I am left with “it does not make sense”.

Report after report show that the actual dynamics are similar to a bad flu season. The same groups that are at risk from the flu are at risk from COVID-19. The very old, very sick or with complications (cancer, heart or lung disease, very high blood pressure). The virus does not kill them it only makes it so the other illnesses can finish them off.

The gutless politicians and experts will never say “sorry we got it wrong. . . go back to a normal life and keep Oma at home until this passes”. No, it is going to be the people who just return to a normal life and the pols/experts follow.

The damage that has been done by social isolation will take years to correct.

Meanwhile the left and MSM will play this out in the hopes that finally they can pin something on Orange Man Bad. I can only hope that in a just world they would all rot in Hell.