Posted on 10/07/2020 5:38:39 AM PDT by EyesOfTX
Why do we pay attention to the Polls? For that matter why do we keep electing and reelecting Democrats? Why do we keep listening to the lying media especially when it pertains to President Trump? In every case, all the above are at least 90% wrong with truth and policy.
Yesterday’s NBC-Wall Street Journal “Poll” came out and said that Biden has a fourteen (14) point lead on Trump. That is flat out wrong as no presidential candidate, especially a largely successful incumbent, ever loses by anything near double digits.
I have always been fascinated by polls and their supposed influence which they are not supposed to do. At best, polling is an inexact “science”. If you were to look at how polls are conducted and want to assume they are on the up and up, you must realize it often takes hundreds of calls to get one respondent to actually talk to the pollster.
VDO.AI Assuming the poll is fair and unbiased, a huge assumption especially now, there are too many variables that are beyond the control of the pollster:
Land lines which often tend toward to a specific older demographic voter versus cell phones Respondents deliberately lying to or deceiving the pollster Shy Republican/Trump supporters either not responding honestly or are genuinely fearful of retribution by the Left’s anti-democracy radical mob. Who wants to expose themselves to grief when people are getting attacked, shamed, or assaulted for wearing a red (not necessarily TRUMP MAGA/KAG) hat, getting their car or home trashed for a MAGA/KAG bumper sticker or yard sign? With all the telemarketing, who wants to divulge any sort of personal information to any cold-calling stranger? The reality is most polling organizations are set up to manipulate and influence public opinion rather than reflect a snapshot of public opinion. This phenomenon occurs when polls are designed to be the news story which has been increasingly occurring on a grand scale since at least the Clinton administration.
It is often said that statistics don’t lie, but statisticians do, and pollsters are nothing more than statisticians.
Now, sprinkle in the agenda of most polling organizations:
Oversampling one political party over another – I am amazed they report the polling sample. The actual breakdown is close to 33% Democratic, 33% Republican, and 33% Independent. With all the #Walkaway movements, there is no way a poll that oversamples Democratic voters would ever be accurate. Asking loaded questions designed to elicit specific responses. I have responded honestly to a handful of pollsters over the years and have qualified many yes or no responses with certain caveats. The pollster patiently listens and acts like he/she is taking my input, but they do not as there is no option for them to do so. The one size fits all question is designed to generate a desired result and works as well as the one size fits all government programs like Obamacare. When there is an effort to get an equal number of Republicans, Democrats, and Independents, ZIP Codes are often employed to ensure they question soft suburban “educated” Republican women and men who are predisposed to reject Trump or any other strong conservative just because the Democratic Party’s platform sounds nicer. (One must wonder why so many liberals/moderates identify as “Republicans” and why so many “Reagan Democrats” who are basically conservative still identify as Democrats?) Another trick is to poll adults, versus registered voters, versus LIKELY voters. Likely voters are really the only ones who matter because they are the ones who are likely to actually vote. Age, Race, Gender, employment status and location are all variables that are sought to influence the poll’s results. Swing states versus the whole country. Oversampling California, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, and New Jersey voters rather than Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina voters, not to mention the deep red states, also contribute to skewed results. The actual number of the poll respondents – anything under a thousand in a big state or nationally is a big red flag where accuracy is concerned. The “margin of error” anything over three percent should render the poll result meaningless. The most important factor to consider when listening to these poll results is who is conducting the poll(s). There is no confirming audit as to the truthfulness of the poll results and the “internals” of the given poll are suspect when organizations like the Wall Street Journal/NBC or the ABC/WAPO and other Leftist outfits, including universities, conduct opinion polls. They are so biased in all their ‘news’ with so many “anonymous sources”, especially concerning Trump, why wouldn’t they just flat out lie about their polls? I am surprised they admit to the political registration samples and other obviously biased criteria; I guess they want to try to show some honesty and assume that the vast majority just reads the bad news for Trump headlines. When there is no confirmation of their polling criteria, why admit to the oversampling of Democrats by ten percent?
Some polls are more creditable than others and the best, most accurate, polls usually have no media or network affiliation. The best pollsters often ask these questions or use these matrixes:
Ask the respondents if they are willing to be polled again during the election cycle. Ask the respondents who their friends or neighbors are voting for. Poll only likely voters. Finally, no one should pay any attention to any wild outlier polls, or any polling organization that reports a ten plus lead for any candidate, and then tightens up the race near the election to protect their reputation. Also, no one should pay attention to any poll with outrageous results three or more months prior to the election as so much can change (the death of Ruth Bader-Ginsburg, Trump getting Covid-19, changing economic reports to name a few examples) in the month prior to the election. Always be aware of the agendas behind the organizations who conduct the polls; if they always report Trump stinks, what “public opinion” do you think their poll is going to reflect which is designed to dispirit the conservative vote?
What I would really like to see are the political parties’ internal polling results; they tell a much more accurate picture of public opinion – watch how the campaigns change their message on a dime – like when they drop the anti-police narrative and distance themselves from Antifa/BLM for example. Policy shifts are all driven by internal polling. Particularly on the Democratic side since at least the Clinton era; these people live and die by polls and focus groups.
That is all.
With all the #Walkaway movements, there is no way a poll that oversamples Democratic voters would ever be accurate.
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Do we really know how big the #Walkaway Movement is? I’f seen videos about it on YouTube, but how mny Leftists really stray away from the “The Faith” to vote for Trump?
I have a land line and everyday get many calls, some of which appear to be possibly pollsters. I never answer.
The new poll shows Biden up by 21! That’s insane.
I have a land line and everyday get many calls, some of which appear to be possibly pollsters. I never answer.
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Same here. I get a half dozen calls a day on my land line. If the caller ID isn’t someone I know, I don’t pickup.
If Biden were really dominating in preference polls, wouldn’t the MSM be ignoring Trump. They have been more insane than usual the past week which tells me they are doing everything they can to bring Trump down.
It’s bash PDJT 24/7 by the corporate media. If he was losing to Biden, they wouldn’t be so insane. They would be happy and just dismissive of all things Trump.
They are NOT Opinion Polls because they are intentionally skewed towards Sleepy Joe, they are Illegal In Kind Political Contributions and the FEC should PROSECUTE THEM!@
When we got DSL internet from Windstream a few months ago, as part of the deal we got our first landline since around the turn of the century.
It was ringing constantly, and all robocalls. We decided to answer a few and waste their time for fun. Oddly, we rarely get any robocalls now.
I don’t think any person should be polled on who he is voting for. Best thing to do is just not give an answer. After all, isn’t it supposed to be a secret ballot? People are being asked to disclose something that should not be disclosed to anyone else, except those who count the votes. It might be different if people didn’t have to think about what an unmitigated disaster it could be if the wrong person or persons were voted in. There should be some differences between the parties & their platforms, but not to the extent that it is now.
Well potential Biden voters who can see Joe isn’t all that going up against Trump w/ his massive rallies would not turn out and vote if he was behind in the polls as they think, shucks he is going to lose anyway, why bother.
We love winners, that is why there are so many NY Yankee fans etc. So tell me Joe is ahead so I turn out and vote for him, as I want to be associated w/ a winner. Just like sport teams.
Now the media, needs to bill this race as closest ever, evil infectious Trump vs. virtuous uncle Joe, most important race ever, soul of the country is at stake, like some hyped up prize fight wrestle mania for ratings sake so that we not only watch there news show on election night, but we will watch it all week till they finally count the votes in this train wreck to declare a winner.
Always ask, what is in it for them, and reporting facts has little in it for them.
If you poll the country Biden will come out ahead...it is the electoral college that matters
Biden is up so much in the polls, Blacks can just stay home and not vote if they support him.
The Sorry State of the Polling Industry.....which has become little more than a bought and paid for propaganda arm.
I don’t pick up either. Very, very few leave messages, and most of those are wanting to get into my pocket.
According to the People’s Pundit pollster NY Times/Siena polls by Nate Cohen are factoring in a HUGE 30% (41 million) increase in voters (which has absolutely no chance of happening) in their polls. “That’s ludicrous; that has never happened.”
“In all of these polls what you see is that Trump is actually leading in a normal electorate, but these new voters are breaking so heavily for Joe Biden with the massive new voters predicted it turns Texas from Trump plus 8 to plus 2; it turns Georgia from Trump plus 8 to even; it turns Arizona from Biden plus 2 to Biden plus 8; and it turns Florida from a Trump lead to Biden plus 5.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6E9GyaHzsUI
Typical Fake polling news: Biden widens lead 21 points after Trump’s coronavirus diagnosis: poll!
Fake news: Biden widens lead 21 points after Trump’s coronavirus diagnosis: poll
Newsweek ^ | October 6, 2020 | Aila Slisco
Posted on 10/7/2020, 6:48:11 AM by ReelectTrump2020
A poll released Tuesday by Franklin Pierce University and The Boston Herald shows Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s lead grew from 5 percent before the positive test result to 21 percent after Trump’s diagnosis was announced.
The author needs to get an English tutor ASAP. Here lies unbelievable gibberish.
I think we would agree that there is something wrong with anyone who does answer those calls. So, if you get only the opinions of nut cases, what can you call the result?
There is nothing wrong with me. I work out of my home and don’t have time to field all the calls coming in, the vast majority of which are scammers. If I knew which ones were for sure legitimate pollsters, I would answer, but I have no way of knowing that so my policy is to not answer (I did answer a few times and got push polled). Does my policy offend you?
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