Posted on 10/27/2020 9:44:15 AM PDT by Yo-Yo
Several weeks ago, presidential opinion polls showed Joe Biden with a double-digit lead over Donald Trump, like the supposed lead Hillary Clinton enjoyed four years ago. Despite prognostications of an almost certain Clinton victory, reality provided a different story ending.
Will the big media be right this election cycle, or are they repeating their folly from the last election?
Rasmussen Reports, one of the most accurate pollsters in the 2016 election, shows a significant narrowing in its White House Watch poll, from a 12-point Biden lead two weeks ago to a 3-point lead a week ago. Now it’s Trump by one.
In the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, comparing Trump’s job approval today with Obama eight years ago, they have about the same approval numbers, varying by a point or two. Obama won his reelection eight years ago easily. Rasmussen also shows Trump holding a three-point lead over Biden in crucial Florida. In other key states, Rasmussen found Biden up by two points in Ohio with Trump up by one point in North Carolina, a toss-up as far as polls go.
Other polls echo Rasmussen Reports. The most recent IBD/TIPP presidential poll also demonstrates a tightening race with Biden now leading Trump by only 2.3 points, well within the margin of error.
Gallup finds Trump’s job approval rating at 46%, close to his all-time high of 49% several times earlier this year. And asking an important question of not who you want to win but instead who you think will win, Trump tops Biden 56% to 40%.
When Gallup asked registered voters, “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?”, 56% of registered voter said yes, compared to only 32% saying no.
Trafalgar Group correctly predicted Trump winning key battleground states in 2016, and for 2020 they are forecasting Trump’s reelection. They project a minimum of high 270s in Electoral College votes, “possibly going up significantly higher based on just how big this [hidden vote] undercurrent is.”
Chief Trafalgar Group pollster Robert Cahaly explains their methodology. Aside from shorter and simpler surveys, they measured the “neighbor question” - who do you think your neighbor is voting for?
Although blacks comprise only 13% of the U.S. population, they have voted almost exclusively for Democrat presidential candidates. No recent Republican presidential candidate garnered more than 10% of the black vote, Trump winning only eight percent in 2016.
This year may be different. As The Washington Post asked recently, “What’s happening out there with black men and Trump?” Support from rappers Ice Cube and 50 Cent can’t hurt.
Are polls again this year understating Trump’s support? Cato Institute found that 62 percent of Americans have political views they are afraid to share, including 77 percent of conservatives. Only staunch libers feel they can freely express themselves. That includes to pollsters.
Then there is the energy and enthusiasm of the two campaigns. Joe Biden on Sunday called “a lid” on his campaign with no more in-person campaigning until the election - after he claimed to be running against George Bush.
Donald Trump, on the other hand, is holding two or three rallies a day, increasing to four or five per daily in the final days of the campaign, each rally drawing tens of thousands of supporters.
Unmeasured by any pollster are the local outpourings of Trump support, unrelated to official rallies, especially in Democrat strongholds like Beverly Hills, Brooklyn, and New Jersey. Conservative Treehouse posted a collection of tweets showing huge parades and rallies in electorally blue territory, in contrast to Harris/Biden events which can’t draw more than a few dozen attendees.
There appears to be a palpable shift in electoral momentum in the final weeks before the election. But the ultimate poll on Election Day will be the final arbiter.
Brian C. Joondeph, MD, is a Denver-based physician and freelance writer for American Thinker, Rasmussen Reports and other publications. Follow him on Facebook, LinkedIn, Twitter, Parler and QuodVerum.
I think it’s more a case of the pollsters trying to hedge their bets after spending the last four years lying about what the American people really think.
Yes there are internal polls which have him ahead and the others are now picking it up!
Anyone who pays attention to ANY polls during the last 14 days before this election is just being a masterdebator.
GET OUT THE VOTE! And do it better than these Socialist Ass hat totalitarians who want to sell out our Country.
Pollsters are trying to stay at least close to reality so they can salvage some credibility.
Yeah, I agree. I'd go further and say that they're trying to salvage the entire political polling industry because they know that they've been putting out false polls for big bucks paid for by the billionaires behind the DNC as part of their ongoing PSYOP against the American people.
Instead of "we've been lying to you as we were paid to do the last 4 years" they'll say "Trump got the Big Mo from out-campaigning Biden (insert excuse-of-the-day here) the last few weeks of this election cycle."
That way, they retain at least some credibility and can go on selling their souls another four years lying to us and trying to demoralize us with utterly fake polls.
Trump was never behind in the polls.
The internal polls had Trump ahead, the question was not will Trump win next week. But will Trump win enough to offset the voter fraud?
Opinion Polls are paid polls that are tweaked to provide a message for a Fake News article. They did everything they could to help Joe. But as the election is a week away, they have to bring it back to at least the margin of error to try to save what little credibility they have left.
The bottom line is this. Forget the polls and go vote, get family & friends out there and vote.
But if you want a sign........
Look at all the PUBLIC support Trump has from all the car, boat, Amish buggy and foot traffic parades all across America.
Measure that against the signs of public support for Joe Biden.
Biden never had a double digit lead, so you know those polls were lies. These polls are actually lies. They are all manipulated to give a result the pollster wants. Now they want to look like they didn’t blow it totally like they did in 2016. So they make them tighten into a coin toss. That way they look right either way.
I did believe this until the IBD/TIP poll that came out yesterday showing Biden at over 50%. I realize that’s a bit of an outlier with other polls lately, but it is concerning.
Trump has won already!
He has HUGE crowds!
They love him and he loves them and he has COME THROUGH FOR THEM.
Biden CAN’T FIND A CROWDIn fact, for most of this election, NO ONE CAN FIND BIDEN!
LOL!
Carl Rove last night said this is typical. 3 weeks before buying a car people express what they want find flashy and attractive , three days before the purchase you are paying more attention to needs and practicalities and you are looking at minivans. Joe Biden is hiding in the basement. I think there are some horrible revelations on the lap top and Biden is hoping he can weather the storm by saying and doing nothing.
Keep in mind that the polls smooth out the fluctuations by using weighted averages and other smoothing techniques.
This Trump’s big increase is buffered by including weighting of past inaccurate polls.
Trump has won already! He has HUGE crowds!
SMH. Those 5 block lines in big cities of liberal immigrants and poc people waiting to vote and the fired up suburban woman who want their abortion rights and think they are going to set back 100 years and chained to the stove and young socialist kids on campus all scare me.
Trump is either going to win in a landslide or lose in a landslide.
I have no idea how it is going to turn out.
Methinks the nets will call the election for Biden before Election Day, citing the large amount of early voting as justification...
Just listened to Rush talking frustratingly about the polls all saying Biden is ahead. He seemed to have overlooked that the polls are intentionally deceptive.
Early voting is at a high record just now. It would seem to be logical that the enthusiasm inspired by Trump in generating record crowd turnout for his rallies would be the same enthusiasm driving people out early to vote.
And, if Biden can’t get people to come out to see him, why would his supporters all of a sudden race to the polls to vote for him.
Joe’s gonna need to get out there and campaign if he really wants that Senate seat he’s after.
I didn’t support the guy, but you could look at Obama and see he was talented in campaigning for himself back when he was in office. The same can not be said for Joe Biden. I really don’t see Biden offering anything, not a vision nor even a cult of personality, just anger and the latest establishment party member saying, “It’s my turn.”
Win in a landslide. That is what the objective facts are saying.
Win in a landslide. That is what the objective facts are saying.
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