Posted on 05/15/2022 12:54:57 PM PDT by MercyFlush
Right now as I write this there are significant elements of the Ukrainian forces located within 40km of the strategic Soviet city of Belgorod.
This city is a critical transshipment and distribution hub for all manner of logistical support for the Soviet Army that is currently trying to steal more land from Ukraine.
The foolish Soviets have left this city all but undefended as they've moved their forces to concentrate on preventing the encirclement and capture of 20,000+ orc forces at Izyum, Ukraine.
The Ukrainians don't have to even seize the city. They may not even need to cross into enemy territory at all. But by at least threatening Belgorod and taking it under artillery fire the Ukrainians can force the Soviets to move precious forces to defend the city.
The return on investment for the Ukrainians for crossing into Russia to harass this city or maybe even capture it is great. They can readily retreat across the border after their objectives in Belgorod are achieved and they will get the added benefit of secondary objectives:
1. Vladimir Putin will be humiliated for leaving a critical Soviet city vulnerable to attack. 2. Supplies to Soviet combat forces in Ukraine will be disrupted. 3. Soviet forces will be degraded yet again as a permanent force will be required to garrison and protect Belgorod from future Ukrainian incursions. 4. That permanent garrison can then be targeted by long range artillery.
Putin could of course declare war and call for a general mobilization of Soviet forces. The problem for Putin is that doing so makes Ukraine look strong and the Orcs look weak in the eyes of the Soviet people who were told to expect a short and glorious war of conquest.
The added psychological effect of this stupid war leading to the first foreign forces on Soviet soil since World War Two will be huge...and it will be blamed on the failures of Pidor Putin.
Regardless of what Ukraine decides to do here Belgorod is critical and vulnerable and it is a legitimate target.
If the Ukies just ran a simple raid on Belgorod and then immediately pulled back the Orcs would probably pull back a division or two to defend the critical city.
I hope they do this since the opportunity is sitting there. It’ll force the Orcs into reacting to an incursion and they’ll freak out and predictably overreact.
I try to read articles on the same or similar subjects from the UK, India and Japan. Especially anything from Japan the author has to explain why both sides are saying or doing what they say or do. That is sometimes surprising.
But yes. I’d say Trust but verify. But since about 2016 I’m one cynical bastard.
One thing that has really damaged my trust is the clickbait panic porn. We’re all going to die in 8.2 years!!!! We’re all going to drown!!! (While our top politicians are buying beach front property worth millions. So, yeah, sure.) The most storied scientist at NASA could announce a comet was about to hit the Earth and I’d yawn.
Yep. That's sufficient.
“Not my fight”
So you’re going to stop fighting for Russia? Well, that’s good news.
I think this would be a mistake, it would give the Russian Army motivation to fight that has been lacking so far.
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The Nazis steam rolled through Ukraine in 9 weeks, couldn’t take Russia, you think the worn down Ukies are stupid enough to cross into Russia? They have not, and will not. Once energized, Russia would fully mobilize ( they have not yet), then Vlad would crush the Ukies with full support of the Russian people- full mobilization.
Your nonsense aside- the Ukies are being strangled by lack of fuel, arms, equipment, rail lines east destroyed, fuel from Romania stopped, when Vlad decides to destroy the dozen or so bridges across the Dniepner- all over for the Ukies. Vlad has exercised much restraint, restraint that will go out the window if the Ukies crossed the border in a publicity maneuver.
Could be. But they weren't there.
Neither were you and neither was I.
I still think they would love to have you in charge.
General Smarty Guy who can magically make brilliant tactical decisions
from half a planet away using only sketchy suppositions as intel.
That's a gift, right there.
What part of it’s not my fight don’t you understand?
Not my fight”
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Ukraine has no strategic value to the US, think Bosnia, Libya, Somalia, Iraq, Syria….this is senile Joe’s war, not the American people. The Ukie war cheerleaders are getting sucked in.
Classic talk from a typical person who supports Putin.
You do know the Soviet Union ceased to exist 30 years ago, don’t you?
Yeah, unfortunately that fear porn extends far beyond just the climate change hysteria, and it all boils down to propaganda that pushes the narrative(s) they want to support.
Probably not a good idea.
This would highly motivated the Russians, likely they could declare total mobilization and all attack Ukraine.
Russians love Mother Russia and would give anything in defending it! When attacked they all unite around the leader and fight back.
See e.g. WWII. Most Russians hated Stalin. The war with Finland went terribly wrong.
But then, they were attacked by Germany and suddenly all united around Stalin, went through terrible suffering and defeated the Germany.
Russia deserves this but I think it would be ill advised. Russia could respond in ways that would not be good for any involved. There really is no symmetry between Russian and Ukrainian capabilities.
Any escalation at this point would probably risk dragging in border nations and Russian ‘allies’ (Belarus, Libya, Turkey, Iran).
It does look like that is where we are headed towards regardless. I imagine Poland and Romania becoming proxy targets soon as well as Finland and Sweden.
Ukraine has nothing to lose by going on the offense.
The EU and the rest of the civilized world will not like Russia’s response.
No. Stay in your own country and defend . They cannot be condemned .
Remember General Robert E. Lee’s experience at Gettysburg .
Why don’t you go there and help them?
OTOH I’ve read that russia has something like a NATO self defense agreement with countries too, like Belarus,Georgia,Kazakstan maybe syria or others and i don’t know what could trigger that but i’d be cautious when it comes topoking the bear with a sharp stick.One nuclear bomb could ruin your whole day.
Mother Tussia , the great ‘babushka’
Wow! 14 Minutes since the last Pro-Ukrainian Post! The Zelensky fan club can’t stop posting!
“Is it time for Ukraine to attack and occupy Belgorod?”
Officially no. Just send the little green men, denazify the area and start setting up the Democratic Republic of Belogrod.
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