See the TB2 drone heading to Ukraine after a Lithuanian crowdfunding drive
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Posted on 07/07/2022 6:09:29 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
A detailed list of the destroyed and captured vehicles and equipment of both sides can be seen below. This list is constantly updated as additional footage becomes available
(Excerpt) Read more at oryxspioenkop.com ...
Why "French?!" Because I used the word "bravo?!"
Is that really the best rejoinder you can make?
I pity you.
Regards,
Ukraine: military situation update with maps, July 6, 2022
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP2QApi8G2TKc8NZmeDWSUg/videos
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••denotes transcribed dialogue.
———————————————————————————————————————
Extras:
Ukraine May Finally Get Slovakia’s MiG-29s Thanks To Czech Air Patrol Deal
A budding partnership between Slovakia and the Czech Republic could finally facilitate the transfer of NATO MiG-29s to Ukraine.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-may-finally-get-slovakias-mig-29s-thanks-to-czech-air-patrol-deal
Excerpt:
The Slovakian MiG-29 fleet includes roughly 11 aircraft - a mix of MiG-29AS single-seaters and MiG-29UBS two-seaters. The aircraft received upgrades that made them NATO compliant, including the installation of special radios and Identification Friend-or-Foe (IFF) equipment, as well as a multi-function display, among other enhancements, during the mid-2000s.
Ukraine Disputes Russia’s Proofless Claim It Destroyed HIMARS Launchers
Russia’s HIMARS destruction statement has no evidence to back it up and Ukraine is saying it never happened.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-disputes-russias-proofless-claim-it-destroyed-himars-launchers
Russia Seems To Be Preparing The Vital Kerch Bridge For Missile Attacks
Deployment of decoy barges and smokescreens implies Russia is preparing for a possible attack on its highly prized Kerch Strait Bridge.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russia-seems-to-be-preparing-the-vital-kerch-bridge-for-missile-attacks
Russian Soldier Shows How NOT To Dispose Of S-300 Anti-Aircraft Missiles
Firing a machine gun at a close-by launcher full of long-range surface-to-air missiles is a terrible idea.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russian-soldier-shows-how-not-to-dispose-of-s-300-anti-aircraft-missiles
Russian Logistics
Trent Telenko
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1544472420484091905
I haven’t talked truck logistics in a while. This thread will revisit truck logistics of the Russo-Ukrainian War.
1. What we thought we knew.
2. The logistical truth on the ground.
3. And how Ukraine’s new HIMARS/GMLRS weapons are kicking over the logistical table.
What we thought we knew came from the outstanding November 2021 piece by Alex Vershinn titled: “FEEDING THE BEAR: A CLOSER LOOK AT RUSSIAN ARMY LOGISTICS AND THE FAIT ACCOMPLI”
https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army-logistics/
The passage I’ve clipped here was the heart of the November 2021 advanced Western understanding of Russian logistics. The problem with the passage below is everything Alex Vershinn stated as a ‘beer math’ model of Russian truck logistics is horribly wrong:
—
“Russia’s truck logistic support, which would be crucial in an invasion of Eastern Europe, is limited by the number of trucks and range of operations. It is possible to calculate how far trucks can operate using simple beer math.
“Assuming the existing road network can support 45 mph speeds, a single truck can make three trips a day at up to a 45-mile range: One hours to load, one hour to drive to the supported unit, one hours to unload, and another hour to return to base.
“Repeating this cycle three times equals 12 hours total. The rest of the day is dedicated to truck maintenance, meals, refueling, weapons cleaning, and sleeping. Increase the distance to 90 miles, and the truck can make two trips daily.
“At 180 miles, the same truck is down to one trip a day. These assumptions won’t work in rough terrain or where there is limited/damaged infrastructure.
“If an army has just enough trucks to sustain itself at a 45-mile distance, then at 90 miles, the throughput will be 33 percent lower. At 180 miles, it will be down by 66 percent. The further you push from supply dumps, the fewer supplies you can replace in a single day.”
—
Alex Vershinn, like every other Western logistician, was blindsided by the 80 year/four generation Western intelligence failure to notice the Russian Army doesn’t use mechanized logistics ‘enhancers’ to move its ammo & supplies.
The Russian Army has no pallets, no forklifts, nor any ISO containers.
There are no D-rings to tie down that huge rocket pallet. That is why the TOS thermobaric rocket pallet shifted off that truck & destroyed the wooden truck bed in the process. There is something else missing on this & every other Russian truck
And this one is from March 27th 2022 discussing the logistical advantages of Western & Chinese pallet capable supply trucks versus the Russian’s complete lack.
These were the sorts of ‘logistical things’ I had expected to be seeing in some form from the Russians in Ukraine, & haven’t. Pallet capable trucks are the Swiss Army knife/lego set of modern logistics. China has pallet trucks in their economy & military logistics.
https://twitter.com/CrankyThegn/status/1508080055632769032…
Alex Vershinn’s assumption that six hours of work day will fill & empty three truckloads of supplies in a 24 hour work day needs to be divided by 3 or 4 due to the lack of pallets & all terrain forklifts Moving ammo packaged thus by hand takes longer.
https://twitter.com/u24_news/status/1517368674352476160
I’ve talked to Ukrainian soldiers in the Twitter space & it is taking a whole day to do one round trip resupply run to a range of 90 km, not 90 miles. While Alex Vershinn mentioned in passing that damage to infrastructure invalidated his ‘beer math,’ expanding ... a bit on what ‘infrastructure damage’ means is required. When people on Twitter think of destroying bridges in Ukraine, they think like this:
This Maxar video of the infamous “64 km convoy” north of Kyiv in mud season shows lots of little places where creeks or water drainage culverts go under the roads. Any one of those blown up, see photo, require longer truck by-pass logistical routes.
https://twitter.com/kamerknc/statu
Infrastructure destroyed by Russian artillery plus the utter lack of mechanized logistics yields much different truck logistics ‘beer math.’
1. 90 km on Ukrainian artillery ravaged roads is minimally a 2 hour drive one way or 4 hours on the road round trip.
2. Since Russian trucks need to be loaded by hand, you are looking at least 3 hours to load & a further 3 hours to unload.
3. Add in needed break times for the drivers, etc. & 1 Russian tactical truck can do 1 supply run a day to between 60% & 75% the radius of action ... that ‘FEEDING THE BEAR’ beer math laid out, call it 30% of Vershinn’s logistic capability model.
This has huge implications given the Ukrainian artillery depot interdiction campaign.
According to the US Army Chief of Staff, the latest versions of US GMLRS that Ukrainian HIMARS fire reach out to at least 85 km to hit within the various OSINT circular error probabilities of 3-to-7 meters.
https://twitter.com/UW_Observer/status/1543961351059652609
Effectively, GMLRS will push Russian tactical trucks outside their sustained one-day, round trip, supply range. This means Russia is going to have to rely far more on railways than it has to date. And the Russians have been relying more and more on railways.
The easiest way to get around reduced truck supply lift is to ‘bomb up’ your tanks, AFV’s and artillery at railway siding. See the T-72 getting resupplied next to a train
https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1542850143111843840
Or simply base, resupply & fire your longest ranged & most logistically intensive rocket artillery from railway siding.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1544405990346555396
Once Ukraine works through the most critical artillery depots on it’s list (map). It will use all its newly acquired deep strike assets to slam Russian ammo supply trains like in those retweets.
Map
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1544472480357777408/photo/1
Russian ammo trains in range of GMLRS are a whole lot easier to find & strike than tactical trucks. Plus, when detonated, extensive train clearance & EOD removal will have to happen before the rail lines line can be used again. GMLRS means Russian logistics is hosed.
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••Ukrainian command new strategy
Addressing problem of Orc artillery - hit artillery shell and fuel depots in Russian rear. Probably will help temporarily to halt their advance and pressure, but in long run Russia can bring in more shells and fuel, both of which they have plenty.
Weaker link is the canons and the crews because cannon are in short supply and crews more so. Crews need to have certain levels of knowledge and intelligence. Training quality crews takes time. Like a bottleneck - hitting a bottleneck creates more problems down the road.
This new strategy seems more driven by quick goals and quick results, which may or may not work. (Edit: “quick goals and quick results” seems to also benefit the Ukraine PR machine. Coincidence?) This strategy is happening while Russian troops are on break after capturing Severodonetsk-Lysychans’k. Attacks on logistics will slow down the Orc re-supply and conscript replenishment.
••Disagreement between Ukraine President and Chief of General Staff
The disagreement (over free movement of men) clearly shows the difference in the forces that Ze represent and the general staff.
••Kazakhstan
(Russia blocking oil export - 67-69 million tons per year. Leadership of Kazakhstan is acting independent, so Russia sends message - creating lot of pain in Kazakhstan.) Largest oil field had huge explosion and is out of action. Very, very suspicious. Their President wants to enforce same sanctions as the West on Russia.
••Norway, Spetsbergen:
Norway has decided to allow Russia to supply the Russia mine workers. Seems resolved.
••Alaska
Speaker of Russian lower Parliament reminds US thaw Alaska belongs to Russia. Shows that the tone gets more and more aggressive day by day.
———————————————————————————————————————
Summary: No major changes.
Key areas:
- Izyum bridgehead: no changes.
- Popasna/Lysychansk area: no changes.
- Svitlodarsk area: no changes.
- Donetsk West: no changes
- Kherson bridgehead: no changes.
1. Kharkiv: No changes.
North of Kharkiv: Definite increase of shelling along border (Bransk, Sumy, Kursk). Some firefights; Orcs claim some of their border guards killed (no confirmation).
2. Izyum bridgehead. No changes.
3. Popasna/Lysychansk area: No changes.
4. Svtilodarsk area: No changes.
5. West of Donetsk: Avdiyivka and Maryinka. No changes.
6. Vugledar: No changes.
7. Velyka Novosilka - Gulyapole stretch of frontline. No changes.
8. Kherson bridgehead: No changes.
Using tanks as a metric, Russia has lost almost 30% of all of it’s tanks that it had (2800). Not a good sign for Russia. But, Russia has taken control over eastern Ukraine.
This has turned into a war of attrition. In essence, Russia is loosing tanks to gain ground. That is not a sustainable strategy. Russia will need to find a way to force Ukraine to give up and surrender it’s territory before it runs out of military hardware.
However, politically, no Ukrainian politician will sign a treaty UNLESS the people of Ukraine decide to give up. And my read of the Ukrainian people is that they are still very pissed at Russia.
LOL, this from the second strongest military on earth. Thanks for posting.
“my read of the Ukrainian people is that they are still very pissed at Russia.”
More than 1/3rd of the troops the Ukrainian government are fighting against are... Ukrainians.
Russians are forcibly conscripting Ukrainians in occupied territories.
Angry relatives say young men with no military experience are being plucked from the streets and sent to war
Andrey, a young car mechanic, was walking through the city of Horlivka in separatist-controlled eastern Ukraine with his friend Elena in late March when they were stopped by a military conscription officer who thrust call-up papers into his hands.
Within a week, Andrey, who had no military experience, was on the frontline fighting alongside Russian troops in Moscow’s confrontation with Ukraine. “I don’t know where he is now,” Elena said. “I don’t even know the unit number. He rarely called . . . then there was no longer any contact with him.”
https://www.ft.com/content/e5b88958-b6e4-4417-ba50-eb1916092acd
See the TB2 drone heading to Ukraine after a Lithuanian crowdfunding drive
There is conscription throughout the Ukrainian government controlled portions of Ukraine also.
Your citation makes it sound as if it is only in the separatist anti-government portions of Ukraine.
I read Ukraine is now drafting women to fill the ranks. They better not be captured by the Russians! This war will not last longer—Over by winter. Russians fight well in Winter. A freezing Europe will push for peace to get gas.
Russians are grabbing any male on the streets in the occupied territories aged 18-65. Within a week, they are on the front lines as cannon fodder.
Shows a military patrol escorting a forcibly mobilized man in a Donetsk street.
OK, so you deny the reality that government controlled parts of Ukraine are doing exactly the same thing.
I wish we could see more TB2s in action over the Donbas region taking out artillery.
Ukraine has more volunteers than they are able to use at this point. What I find egregious is that Putin invaded Ukraine, and is now using the Ukrainians from occupied territories as cannon fodder, and not Russians from Moscow, St. Petersburg, etc.
“Some great news! The HIMARSare proving extremely effective in assisting Ukraine!
Russia Telegram chats literally beg Putin to “please do something!” And that HIMARS are wiping-out 🇷🇺 positions w/ mass casualties.
Map of 🇷🇺 stockpiles destroyed by 🇺🇦 using HIMARS 🇺🇸.”
“Luhansk Oblast Governor: Russian forces blame residents of occupied settlements for explosions in their depots.
According to Serhiy Haidai, Russian troops have started looking for locals who could have reported the locations of Russian depots to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.”
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