First hump day of 2023. A slow reporting day.
Economy –
According to CoBank Lead Animal Protein Economist Brian Earnest, both supply and demand side pressures will lead meat and poultry producers to take a cautionary stance on expanding production in 2023. Beef production is set to contract in 2023. CoBank estimates a 5% reduction in beef cow herds.
OBSERVATION – This means that inflationary pressures will continue in the beef market for several years at least because it will take that long to enlarge herds to pre-pandemic levels. Poultry will recover faster once the avian flu is over.
Invasion of Illegals –
Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) released its year-end report showing yet another uptick in the total of fugitive illegal aliens — those who have been ordered deported but have refused to leave the U.S.
According to the report, this number has now reached more than 1.2 million under Biden. This number doesn’t reflect millions released into the US after being caught and have not shown up for their court appearances in the same time frame.
Altogether, the total of illegal aliens living in the U.S. who have either final deportation orders or pending deportation orders reached nearly 4.8 million in Fiscal Year 2022 — an almost 100 percent increase since Fiscal Year 2017.
Biden / Harris watch –
Rumors growing that biden will dump harris as his running mate for 2024, replacing her with another woman – some believe to be Clinton or 0bama.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
In the latest release of the Twitter Files, reporter Matt Taibbi revealed how the State Department attempted to go to the media with information about suspect Twitter accounts. Twitter executives were under pressure from a a fledgling analytic/intelligence arms of the State Department to follow their requests.
POLITICAL FRONT –
McCarthy became the first person in one hundred years to not win house speaker in the first round of voting. In fact, three votes were taken yesterday and the only republican that gained ground was Jordan.
OBSERVATION - The speaker battle will define the fight for the heart and soul of the republican party actions during the next congressional session. Moderates are more inclined not to rock the boat and essentially process as democrat-lite manners and policies. Conservative members demand a change the method of operations. Some how, moderates consider the goals of a balanced budget and govt accountability things the public are not interested in.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Well, one mystery solved -
Two men were arrested on New Year’s Eve for allegedly shutting down four Washington state power substations in late December that led to power outages for thousands across Pierce County. Matthew Greenwood and Jeremy Crahan have been charged with conspiracy to damage energy facilities and Greenwood faces a separate charge of possessing illegal short-barreled rifles.
According to court documents, Greenwood, 32, and Crahan, 40, plotted to knock out power from four substations. While power was out in the first two facilities, the pair broke into a local business to steal from the cash register, Greenwood allegedly told investigators after his arrest.
Investigators identified Greenwood and Crahan almost immediately after the attacks took place by using cell phone data that allegedly showed both men in the vicinity of all four substations, according to court documents. Surveillance images cited in the court documents also showed images of one of the men and of the getaway car.
OBSERVATION - It does seem excessive to take out 4 substations just to rob a few stores. That may be due to simple lack of understanding of what substation serviced what area.
Perhaps on another level was the ability to use cell phone data to locate the men at the substations - tracking ability that govt could use against (and probably has) patriots in the future.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The U.S. Air Force is laying the structural foundation for a long-range over-the-horizon radar known as the Tactical Mobile Over-the-horizon Radar (TACMOR) on the western Pacific island of Palau. Air Force will likely use this radar as an early warning system for anti-ship ballistic missiles and land-strike ballistic missiles launched out of China.
China –
WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe.
I’ve encountered no new indicators/contraindicators to report.
Japan –
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said Wednesday that his country would deepen its military alliance with the U.S. under its new national security strategy.
Over the past two weeks, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army-Navy Liaoning Carrier Strike Group has been operating in and around Japanese waters near Okinawa and the Nansei Islands.
OBSERVATION – Japan’s accelerated military build-up efforts with increased diplomatic / military cooperation with others in the region points to how serious Japan considers China’s expansionist threats.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now closing out its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukranian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
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More Kremlin maneuvering between Wagner Group and the MoD. With the failure to capture Bahkmut and the recent HIMARS strike that took out as many as 600 soldiers, Wagner has been having their narrative of success sharply hit.
Russian sources report that poor COMSEC by soldiers hit with HIMARS stike was the cause of it being targeted. Apparently georeferenced photos hit the interwebs, enabling Ukrainian intelligence to quickly pull the data together and launch the strike.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Nasty mix of rain and snow throughout most of the 10 day forecast with cold temperatures. Weather forcasts continue with above freezing temperatures for the next couple weeks.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
No significant change in the level and locations of conflict. Wagner Group is catching flak from some Russian milbloggers for its failure to capture Bahkmut after 5 months of fighting for it and the majority of Russian logistical support given.
OUTLOOK ——
Continued status quo. Ukraine seems to be happy to maintain the defensive in the Bahkmut - Donetsk zone as it requires a smaller force and Russia hasn’t mustered the men and equipment necessary to swing the force ratio into their favor. As a result, Russia has continued to absorb heavy casualities.
Once the weather cools enough to freeze the ground, the actions from both sides should become dynamic very quickly.
Iran –
As the protests have continued, Iran has tried to shape the situation as Kurdish and Sunni supported insurgencies. In part this is correct, but there is also a broader level of support from other sectors of the country. IRGC and Basji forces continue to increase brutal efforts to suppress protests.
Looks like criminals are stupid AND they're watching too many action movies... Cops doing the phone thing is great but the press should leave it out of stories.
There seems to be some internet issues with many servers this morning, and I’ve not been able to access half the websites I normally do. Haven’t been able to follow links down to root articles so I’ve possibly missed a lot.
Fortunately FR has not been affected.
Wuhan virus –
Lawsuits against the FDA and its alleged directives forbidding the use of ivermectin to treat wuhan are gaining traction. During a hearing in 2022, attorneys defending the government argued that the agency’s missives were just a recommendation.
“They did not say it’s prohibited or it’s unlawful. They also did not say that doctors may not prescribe ivermectin,” Isaac Belfer, one of the lawyers for the government, said during a Nov. 1, 2022, hearing in federal court in Texas.
“The FDA was the key creator of these hurdles when it launched a social media campaign stating that ivermectin is dangerous and only for horses. When faced with a lawsuit, the FDA now claims it was merely making suggestions—suggestions that have threatened my ability to practice medicine and more importantly, interfered with life-saving early treatment of COVID patients,” stated Dr. Mary Bowden , a plaintiff in one of the cases.
OBSERVATION - Another lawsuit – the crack in the dam widens as more and more evidence comes out of the deliberation actions to remove treatments for wuhan that were contrary to the official ‘narrative’. REMEMBER, many of these physicians and nurses lost their certifications and were fired because they prescribed ivermectin for their patients based on this “recommendation” that the covidians twisted into a ban. People lost their lives that could have been saved .
A study that looked into the age-stratified infection fatality rate (IFR) of COVID-19 among the non-elderly population has found that the rate was extremely low among young people.
“The median IFR was 0.0003 percent at 0–19 years, 0.002 percent at 20–29 years, 0.011 percent at 30–39 years, 0.035 percent at 40–49 years, 0.123 percent at 50–59 years, and 0.506 percent at 60–69 years,” the study conducted across 29 countries stated. “At a global level, pre-vaccination IFR may have been as low as 0.03 percent and 0.07 percent for 0–59 and 0–69-year-old people, respectively.”
Some countries have stopped their COVID-19 vaccine programs for children. In October, the Swedish Public Health authority ceased recommending vaccination for 12- to 17-year-olds except under special circumstances. The agency acknowledged that very few healthy children have been affected seriously by the virus.
“Overall, we see that the need for care as a result of COVID-19 has been low among children and young people during the pandemic, and has also decreased since the virus variant omicron began to spread,” Soren Andersson, head of a unit at the Public Health Authority, told broadcaster SVT at the time. “In this phase of the pandemic, we do not see that there is a continued need for vaccination in this group.”
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001393512201982X
OBSERVATION – These kinds of numbers were known early on during the plandemic. Yet the jab was pushed and mandated and now we have global aftereffects of ‘excessive deaths’, Sudden Adult Death syndrome (SADS), heart conditions, female reproduction issues, documented decline in the immune system strength/capability – just a short list. As much as I’d like to see a Nuremburg style of reconning against the pushers of the jabs and the govt agencies that encouraged it – it will never happen.
The U.S. is extending its requirement for foreign travelers to be fully vaccinated against COVID-19. The requirement was scheduled to expire on Jan. 8. However, it will now expire on April 10, according to an amended order from the Transportation Security Administration. The order applies to non-citizens and non-immigrants.
OBSERVATION – The biggest crier against this requirement is China and the extension decision was made largely with it in mind.
Economy –
A new Gallup poll shows Americans entering the new year with great pessimism about their country, the prospects for peace and prosperity, and their government’s ability to control crime, inflation and deficit spending.
Gallup summed up the poll like this: “Americans enter 2023 with a mostly gloomy outlook for the U.S. as majorities predict negative conditions in 12 of 13 economic, political, societal and international arenas.”
The poll surveyed 1,803 people on whether they had a negative or positive outlook on a host of pressing issues. Gallup states:
“When offered opposing outcomes on each issue, about eight in 10 U.S. adults think 2023 will be a year of economic difficulty with higher rather than lower taxes and a growing rather than shrinking budget deficit.
OBSERVATION – While the survey’s results are based on the subjective views of the surveyed, it is useful to see the gap between the govt’s narrative of happy days are here again versus the cold realities of trying to make ends meet. The public also doesn’t appear to agree with the regime’s actions on a global scale either.
RECESSION WATCH –
The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index crashed on Tuesday in the worst decline on record, sinking on prospects of a global recession. Baltic Dry Good Index is a measure of global shipping and economic health. The overall index, which tracks rates for capesize, panamax, and supramax shipping vessels carrying dry bulk commodities, plunged 17.5% to $1,250, the most significant daily decline since 1984.
OBSERVATION – Recessions result in decreased production of goods. A reflection of those good produced is how busy shipping is. Here the index is flashing global recession warnings.
Two-thirds of top economists at the United States’ largest financial institutions are predicting a recession in 2023, according to a survey conducted by the Wall Street Journal.
Primary concerns cited in the survey of 23 primary dealers, including those from Barclays PLC, Bank of America Corp, TD Securities, and UBS Group AG, were a dwindling of pandemic savings, a decline in the housing market, and a tightening of lending rules as potential warning signs of an incoming recession.
Jeremy Schwartz, Senior US Economist at Credit Suisse, one of the five banks that didn’t predict a recession, wrote of the outlook for 2023, “Several historically reliable lead indicators are sending recession signals, but in our view these measures are unable to correctly gauge recession risk in the current environment.”
OBSERVATION – In essence, Credit Suisse is whistling past the graveyard – contrary to leading indicators of a recession. They are correct in part that the current global economic environment is having unprecedented impact on the future economic outcomes – that environment by many are viewing that they will contribute to a much deeper and longer recession.
Federal Reserve officials reaffirmed their commitment to combating inflation at their December meeting and indicated that interest rates could remain elevated for “some time” until there is clear evidence that consumer prices are falling.
Minutes from the U.S. central bank’s Dec. 13-14 meeting released on Wednesday showed that policymakers worried that investors and financial markets could misinterpret their decision to raise interest rates more slowly as a sign they were ending their campaign to bring prices under control. Fed officials said that the smaller rate hike – 50 basis points, compared to the previous four 75-basis-point increases – “was not an indication of any weakening” and warned of continued risks on the inflation front.
The minutes show that officials remain determined to hold rates high as long as needed in order to tame inflation, even if it means risking higher unemployment or slower economic growth.
“Participants generally observed that a restrictive policy stance would need to be maintained until the incoming data provided confidence that inflation was on a sustained downward path to 2 percent, which was likely to take some time,” the minutes said. “In view of the persistent and unacceptably high level of inflation, several participants commented that historical experience cautioned against prematurely loosening monetary policy.”
OBSERVATION – Expect no changes any time soon. Even a 50 point rate increase is out of the norms of past Fed responses to inflation. Remember too that the common assessment that it takes 3 – 6 months for a fed rate change to fully affect the economy means the initial 75 point increases are just starting to show their teeth.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden is buddy-buddying up with McConnel over the support given to get the $1.7 trillion CR passed in the senate. This mammoth porkulus bill is one that even Godzilla cannot devour.
“I’m especially happy to be with my friend and colleague of many years, and I might add, longest-serving leader at the United States Senate, Senator Mitch McConnell. Mitch, it’s great to be with you,” Biden said while delivering a speech on the economy in Covington, Kentucky, in a rare appearance with McConnell.
The two leaders appeared at the site of a bridge due to receive funding from the package, spanning between Kentucky and Ohio, after riding in the same car together to the speaking event.
(snip) “Mitch… it wasn’t easy to get this done, and it wouldn’t have gotten done… without your hand, and I want to thank you for that!”
OBSERVATION – biden heaping praise on a republican – shows you how far the senate leadership has fallen.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Antifa supported violence against counter protestors of LGBT trans events are the biggest notes. However, these are local actions and not fully tracked up for nation wide violence.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Sixth round of voting yesterday and McCarthy is no closer to obtaining the chair. Rumors afoot that he has made significant concessions to opposition conservatives and that may swing enough votes in his favor
Meanwhile, republican infighting is getting vicious and there will be considerable animus between members for a long time to come. Could likely cancel out much of what the republicans could accomplish this term.
For example - Crenshaw (R-TX), called those who opposed McCarthy “terrorists”. NOTE – Crenshaw is a graduate of the WEF’s young leaders seminar – along with the likes of Canada’s Trudeau. In spite of using his military career to bolster is ‘conservative’ credentials, he has routinely voted with democrats on many issues.
There are even reports that some republicans are reaching out to democrats, offering them choice concessions of raising the debt ceiling and other issues. Many analysts look at that as being a none starter at this stage and would completely undercut stated republican goals before the current stalemate.
OBSERVATION – What little hope I placed in the republicans in the house have been shattered as it seems the eGOP branch wants the decimation of America. Remember, over 50 house republicans voted for the abominable LGBT ‘marriage’ act. Similar goes to house republicans who voted for the year long CR that effectively blocked the republican ‘controlled’ house from effecting budget controls for half (one year) of the term.
Cutting deals with the democrats would definitely hit republicans if they go that route. It would confirm what the hold-outs are indicating is the case – a status quo in the house and the republicans being demoted to a ‘democrat-lite’ party.
China –
WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe.
I’ve encountered no new indicators/contraindicators to report.
China and the Philippines have agreed to set up a direct communications channel on the South China Sea and to handle disputes over the contested waterway “through peaceful means”, according to a joint statement by the two countries.
The agreement on Thursday came a day after Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing amid efforts to mend a relationship that has been strained by Manila’s decision in 2016 to seek an arbitral ruling on China’s expansive claims in the South China Sea. The United Nations tribunal invalidated China’s claims, but Beijing has rejected the ruling.
OBSERVATION – China may be trying to head off or reduce the effect of renewed cooperation and security agreements between the Philippines and the US. Without a doubt, any agreement made will be canted to give China the most benefit and control they want in the region.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now closing out its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukranian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
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Russia has deployed a frigate to the Atlantic Ocean armed with new generation hypersonic cruise missiles on Wednesday. In a video conference with Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Igor Krokhmal, commander of the frigate named “Admiral of the Fleet of the Soviet Union Gorshkov”, Putin said the ship was armed with Zircon (Tsirkon) hypersonic weapons.
“This time the ship is equipped with the latest hypersonic missile system - ‘Zircon’,” said Putin. “I am sure that such powerful weapons will reliably protect Russia from potential external threats.”
OBSERVATION – A restatement of the nuclear threat by putin. Theoretically, the Zircon provides a pretty stout first strike capability. Any use by Russia would throw the world into a global nuclear conflict and decimate Russia.
Logistics –
- Rumors are circulating that Russia has been able to procure another 1700 Iranian drones. At the current use rate, this stockpile could last as long as May.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing. However, due to heat retention by soils, it will take a prolonged sub-freezing period to render the soils frozen enough for maneuver by tanks/armor.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
No significant change in the level and locations of conflict. Combat on the ground has been largely controlled by winter weather conditions.
OUTLOOK ——
Continued status quo. Ukraine seems to be happy to maintain the defensive in the Bahkmut - Donetsk zone as it requires a smaller force and Russia hasn’t mustered the men and equipment necessary to swing the force ratio into their favor. As a result, Russia has continued to absorb heavy causalities.
With Russia working to get more Iranian drones, Ukraine’s defenses against them are improving to the extent that the Russian swarm attacks may no longer be able to effectively meet their goal of demoralizing the Ukrainian people. Ukraine success actually boosts the morale of the citizens.
Weather conditions are beginning to switch over to the low temperatures necessary for maneuver combat. Good news for Ukraine and bad for the poorly equipped Russians.
Belarus -
Belarusian Ministry of Defense confirmed efforts to build up the joint Belarus-Russian battlegroup. There have been other unconfirmed reports that Russia is planning on sending more troops to Belarus for both training as well as putting together a force that could once again threaten N Ukraine and Kyiv.
OBSERVATION - Within all this activity, Belarus has been very vocal towards NATO, emphasizing almost imminent invasion by NATO. This persistent ‘defensive’ type of talk indicates Belarus is still pretty well entrenched against marching into Ukraine along side Russian forces. Belarus military command is well aware that Russia has drained much of its war reserve of ammo and armor/tanks over the past 10 months of fighting – leaving very little reserve for any kind of Belarus expeditionary force incursion into Ukraine.
Assessment continues that Belarus will not enter the war in Ukraine.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
Calls from the E.U. for Serbia to join in sanctions against Russia over its war in Ukraine were bluntly rejected by Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic on Wednesday. In an address to the nation, Vucic said the E.U. sanctions represent a “brutal” interference in Serbia’s internal affairs.
OBSERVATION – Serbia has applied for membership into the EU. However, its aggressive approach to N Kosovo and its alliance with Russia has soured that application to many in the EU.
Israel –
Israeli diplomats are working damage control following the visit to the temple mount by Israeli govt officials.
Turkey -
See Russia for talks with Russia.
Misc of Note –
Shortages of over the counter cold and flu medicines have deepened globally. This is in part due to a shortage of prescription cold/flu medicines. Shortages are being blamed on production problems and supply shortages. Many of these drugs are also produced in India and China – increasing uncertainties for supply.
OBSERVATION – If your family uses these kinds of OTC drugs, buy them when you see them – even if you don’t currently need them. Chances are when you do need them there will be none to find.