Globalism / Great Reset –
Senior officials from about two dozen of the world’s major intelligence agencies held a secret meeting on the fringes of the Shangri-La Dialogue security meeting in Singapore this weekend, five people told Reuters.
Such meetings are organized by the Singapore government and have been discreetly held at a separate venue alongside the security summit for several years, they said. The meetings have not been previously reported.
OBSERVATION - What a surprise, the ‘intelligence’ officials, spy kings of WEF directed govts.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Matt Walsh’s movie “What is a Woman” viewable for free on Twitter though this weekend, sent shockwaves through the interwebs after a cohort of twitter centrists - holdovers from the censor culture of Twitter sought to cancel the video. The ruckus around this video is remnant of the culture wars which have morphed IMHO into components of todays ‘cold’ CW2. As I’ve noted in a previous TM post, the left is now defining ANY view contrary to the narrative to be actual VIOLENCE and as such the left feels that their VIOLENCE is fully justified in return.
It is important we know who the enemy is and what their beliefs and goals are.
I strongly recommend viewing this today, as it may or may not continue in the free view format.
https://twitter.com/realDailyWire/status/1664424891372941312
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Conviction of members of the Oath Keepers group are a precursor of what the govt intends to do to the population in general. This is essentially a form of battlefield preparation - govt nipping leadership from established patriot related groups in an effort to put fear into the remaining membership as well as other groups. The bites they are taking are not big enough to trigger a major pushback but enough to serve their purpose to place doubt into the organizations. I’ve said it a thousand time, there is a very high likelihood of other patriot, 3 percent, etc groups being infiltrated by actual agents or paid informants. Time to seriously clean the rolls of your group.
Terrorism -
See Illegals below for terror arrests.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The USS Gerald R. Ford, the largest warship in the world, carrying more than 90 aircraft (60+ F-35’s) has been transferred to NATO Command. As of yesterday, 2 June 2023, the vessel was preparing to conduct activities in the Norwegian Sea with other Allied forces.
OBSERVATION - Some have freaked out about transfer of command to NATO. This is very common, especially for exercises. This is the Ford’s first full deployment and they are still working bugs out of many systems - most critical are continued problems with the catapult launch system.
Illegal Immigration –
With five months left in the 2023 fiscal year, 2022’s record of 98 watch list arrests will be easily surpassed in the coming months. Border Patrol agents caught 16 people on the FBI’s terror watch list trying to illegally cross the U.S. southwest land border between entry ports in April, bringing this fiscal year’s suspected terrorist arrest total up to nearly 100. With about 5 months left before the end of the FY, the number of identified terrorists will definitely continue to rise. The number of terrorists caught exceeds the TOTAL combined numbers for FY 2107-2019 and 2020. Data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection also suggests that the number of suspected terrorists arrested in April alone was five times the three watch list apprehensions listed for all of FY 2019 and FY 2020.
OBSERVATION - Bad enough for the increase in crime, but the potential for terror has increased substantially. The mayhem could be off the charts.
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Federal & TX law enforcement sources are reporting that multiple times this week, suspected members of the Northeast Cartel, armed w/ rifles, crossed into the US in the Fronton, TX area in the Rio Grande Valley with 5 arrested yesterday via Border Patrol.
OBSERVATION - Loss of border control has emboldened cartels to begin moving their forces northward to establish controlled territories in the US. This activity will only increase.
China –
A Chinese warship came within 150 yards of hitting American destroyer USS Chung-Hoon during joint Canada-U.S. mission. Embarked journalists captured the moment on video & witnessed the near collision. The People’s Liberation Navy ship picked up considerable speed and cut in front of the bow of the USS Chung-Hoon.”
“The fact this was announced over the radio prior to doing it clearly indicated it was intentional.”
OBSERVATION - playing chicken is a common ploy of the Chinese military. More commonly seen in aircraft intercepts, they are not adverse to use it on the sea as well, knowing that the US (or other vessel ) will likely back off its course to avoid collision.
BTW China continues to probe the Taiwan ADZ with aircraft and ships.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated June 1 2023
For all practical purposes, Russia’s winter offensive is over. Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders. Battlefield initiative is being taken over by Ukraine. At no location along the front is Russian succeeding in the attack.
Russia has been successful in finally capturing Bakhmut - a very pyrrhic victory by all counts, but doesn’t have the forces necessary to exploit the capture. It has also depleted its forces of a very usable reserve force to counter Ukrainian offensive actions.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles. Recent multi-way attacks on Kyiv resulted in most of the missiles/drones (well over 90%) being shot down and very few reaching a target.
Battle field shaping operations have forced Russia to spread its forces out, further complicating its defensive posture.
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Wagner’s Prigozhin has opened up another verbal assault on the Russian MoD,this time in relation to cross border raids in the Belgorod region. He is
seizing on general Russian discontent with security on the Belgorod Oblast border to threaten that Wagner forces may operate in Russian territory without approval from the Russian military command. Prigozhin claimed that Wagner will not wait for an invitation or permission from the MoD to defend Belgorod Oblast if the MoD does not curb security threats to the region.
In another outburst , Prigozhin claimed that MoD forces mined the roads out of Bakhmut - slowing their withdrawal from the city, and that was purposeful to damage Wagner forces.
This open display of insurrection is an escalation in the behind the scenes knife fight with the MoD. There are already increasing thoughts that Prigozhin is fomenting conditions for a coup attempt against Putin, though putin continues to keep him in his circle.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Regular Russian forces have likely finished relieving Wagner Group forces in Bakhmut amid a low offensive tempo in the area as of June 3. Depleted VDV units identified as some of those forces.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs in the 70’s and 80’s. predominantly dry throughout the forecast period.
RUMINT –
Some suggesting that UK is supplying stealth versions of its cruise missiles to Ukraine.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that his forces stand ready to launch their long-promised counteroffensive to reclaim Russian-occupied territory.
The U.S. administration believes that together with allies and partners, they have adequately provided military assistance to Ukraine for conducting a counteroffensive, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on June 2.
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Much smaller missile/drone attack on areas outside of Kyiv overnight with 4 of 6 cruise missiles and 3 of 5 drones were shot down overnight
Russian Territory –
Those Russian Freedom fighter (and now with affiliated Polish legions) are continuing to make life miserable for border Russians, with shelling reported in Murom, Novaya Tavolzhanka villages, Schebekyne town of Belgorod region
Ukraine’s Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula, there are reports of explosions near the air base at Dzhankoy. Apparently Dzhankoy heli base in occupied Crimea was hit some hours ago too.
Mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, reports that the railway track near Dolyns’ke was blown up. It was used to transport Russian personnel and military equipment to the front,
OUTLOOK –
I continue to see the clock ticking down to the kickoff of the offensive. Weather across the southern and eastern Ukraine is favorable and nearly all of the mud has dried up. Recent Russian milblogger reports of considerable Ukrainian artillery fire across most of the front is suggestive of soon offensive action -as the broad artillery will mask the actual breakthrough areas.
Strategic missile fires into Crimea is serving to force Russia to move those assets further from the combat zone. Increasing targeting of rail lines pushing the Russian supply weakness. Though good work crews could have the lines back up and running in days, in those days several more sections will need repair/replacement.
The continued raids into Belgorod Oblast are creating favorable conditions as well - forcing deployment of precious operational reserve forces into the Oblast. Second is the big propaganda hit to putin - clearly showing Russia isn’t safe. So far these raids have been conducted by forces up to 500 men and Russia has been impotent from stopping them. Now they have reinforcements from Polish nationals.
Wagner PMC’s leader Prigozhin is really hanging it out there and it will be seen just how much rope putin will give him before reeling him in. His rants are powerful propaganda for Ukraine to build upon and the threat of a shooting insurrection is growing. Some think he may be given the Belgorod sector to command. One thing is coming out, Prigozhin seems to be changing his game plan from dropping Ukraine operations for Sudan to seeking another sector for him to command.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
The Turkish defense ministry announced Saturday it will be sending a commando battalion to northern Kosovo in response to a NATO request for troops to help quell violent unrest.
The request came from NATO’s Joint Force Command Naples, the ministry said in a press statement posted on its official Twitter account, and the battalion will join the alliance´s peacekeeping mission in the region, known as KFOR, as a reserve unit.
Iran –
See Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan below on weekend clashes.
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(Reuters) - Iran’s navy commander said his country and Saudi Arabia, as well as three other Gulf states, plan to form a naval alliance that will also include India and Pakistan, Iranian media reported on Saturday.
OBSERVATION - I think this is more propaganda than anything else. Iran continues to capture ships and threaten gulf neighbors, so the thought that these same threatened countries will suddenly form a military alliance with Iran is very questionable. But it does demonstrate the disintegration of US influence in the region.
Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -
The Taliban clashed with Iranian border guards over the weekend. The fight took place in the Nimroz province of Afghanistan, on its south western border with Iran. At least three people died, and others were wounded in a dispute about water rights in the region.
OBSERVATION - Big play on the interwebs was the videos showing the captured US equipment deploying to the conflict zone.
Turkey –
See SERBIA / KOSOVO above
Mexico -
Cartel elements now starting to routinely operate on US territory — See Illegalse above.
Biden's a POX on the Nation...
Globalism / Great Reset –
Biden’s regime signed a global agreement with twelve other nations, including Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, and Spain, to crack down on farming to “save the planet” from “climate change.”
John Kerry, represented America in the pledge and said in May:
“We can’t get to net zero; we don’t get this job done unless agriculture is front and center as part of the solution,” Kerry, Biden’s climate czar, said at the AIM for Climate summit in Washington. “Food systems themselves contribute a significant amount of emissions just in the way in which we do the things we’ve been doing,” Kerry asserted.
“With a growing population on the planet – we just crossed the threshold of eight billion fellow citizens around the world – emissions from the food system alone are projected to cause another half a degree of warming by mid-century.”
OBSERVATION - Please note! First it was SUVs, next fossil fuel power plants, now it is agriculture. One of the stated goals of the WEF (Remember the Georgia guidestones statement too) is to drastically reduce the population to a ‘sustainable’ level. Eliminating electrical power, drastically cutting off the food supply will cause people to die. It will also cause increased resource wars which will also kill more people. Too many are asleep at the wheel on this issue, so this issue is rapidly growing - from Netherlands killing its agriculture, to Ireland culling up to 200,000 head of cattle, to Canada essentially banning fertilizer and now the focus is fixed on the US.
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A trial of universal basic income (UBI) will be trialled for the first time in England where 30 people will be given a monthly stipend with no strings attached.
The UBI scheme, to be run by the Autonomy think tank, will see 30 people given a monthly allowance of £1,600 a month without any requirements. The scheme will take place in the town of Jarrow in the North East of England and in the East Finchley area of North London, Sky News reports.
The pilot scheme will also draft a control group that won’t receive the free cash, in order for the researchers to measure the impact of the money on the lives of the participants.
OBSERVATION - buried in the proposals and goals of the WEF is this UBI concept tied to digital currency controls. Universal communism for all but the elite.
Economy –
Wednesday next week the fed is expected to come to a new rate decision. Early prognosticators are thinking that another quarter to half point increase is probable.
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Saudi Arabia will reportedly be cutting back on the amount of oil it exports to the world economy, in an effort to support the sagging price of crude after two earlier supply cuts by major oil-producing nations in the OPEC+ alliance failed to do so. The other OPEC+ members also decided to extend earlier production cuts through next year during a conference in Vienna, which coincides with the Saudi Arabian cut of 1 million barrels per day set to begin in July.
OBSERVATION - Recessions bring declines in oil demand. OPEC+ wants to keep prices “stable” and to do that they have to tailor supply to meet demand. Cutting production indicates that at the earlier reduced pumping rates, surplus was developing - which pushes down prices. So this global indicator shows economic slowdown. A big player in this is China who is facing an economic downturn - opposite of the hopes of OPEC+ who were earlier in the year looking at an upturn.
China –
There are multiple sources stateing that Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Iran agreed to conduct joint naval security for the region under China’s guidance.
OBSERVATATION - This grants China almost unprecedented control of the region if true. Further indication that the US has ceased to be the main influence in the region.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated June 1 2023
For all practical purposes, Russia’s winter offensive is over. Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders. Battlefield initiative is being taken over by Ukraine. At no location along the front is Russian succeeding in the attack.
Russia has been successful in finally capturing Bakhmut - a very pyrrhic victory by all counts, but doesn’t have the forces necessary to exploit the capture. It has also depleted its forces of a very usable reserve force to counter Ukrainian offensive actions.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles. Recent multi-way attacks on Kyiv resulted in most of the missiles/drones (well over 90%) being shot down and very few reaching a target.
Battle field shaping operations have forced Russia to spread its forces out, further complicating its defensive posture.
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PMC Wagner detained and interrogated no other but the commander of the 72nd Brigade, Roman Venevitin. Wagner and the 72nd Brigade shared positions in Bakhmut.
They detained the man, beat him, broke his nose, and forced to record a video admitting to firing at a car of PMC Wagner due to “personal animosity” towards them.
OBSERVATION - There is a great deal of hate between Wagner and regular forces. Part of this story includes regular Russian forces firing upon withdrawing Wagner elements. This follows reports that Russia also mined exit route taken by Wagner.
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Broadcasting of MIR TV company was hijacked starting 12:41 and before 13:18, aired fake address of Putin, - statement of company
RUMINT-
The Russian Ministry of Defense has announced that they believe a Major Offensive Operation by the Ukrainian Armed Forces has begun with Battles and Ukrainian Advances from the 23rd and 31st Separate-Mechanized Brigades of the Ukrainian Ground Force being reported earlier today in 5-Sectors along the Front specifically near the Town of Novodarivka in the Zaporizhia Region and the Town of Neskuchne in the Southern Dontesk Region.
REMEMBER - there will be a lot of misinformation flying from both sides. This story is important for Russian as putin / MoD try to regain control of the narrative in russian information space. Video provided by Russian sources do not support this claim - Ukraine sources are silent.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs in the 70’s and 80’s. predominantly dry throughout the forecast period.
RUMINT –
Some suggesting that UK is supplying stealth versions of its cruise missiles to Ukraine.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian Armed Forces ask for silence in the information space. OPSEC making confirmation of some reports difficult.
Russian targeted Ukraine with more cruise missiles and Iranian-made drones on June 4 making it the fourth consecutive day of strikes across Ukraine
Ukraine’s losses in the Battle of Bakhmut were lower than Russia’s by a factor of 7.5, National Security and Defense Council chief Oleksiy Danilov told Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera.
NOTE - Historical averages for defender losses are often in the 8-10 factor. So these numbers fit pretty well to history and are being considered credible. Others have calculated that for every 19 inches of ground gained in Bakhmut cost one Russian life. While costly, the strategy effectively bleed Russia of forces they will desperately need in the coming weeks/months.
Donetsk Front ——
Explosion reported near Azovstal in Mariupol.
According to head of PMC Wagner mercenaries Russian troops have partially withdrawn from Berkhivka village north of Bakhmut
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Explosions were reported in Russian controlled Mykhailivka of Vasylivka district of Zaporizhzhia region
Russian Territory –
“Already at least 4 towns have come under the control of the RDK and the Legion of Free Russia. The Kremlin does NOT control these territories. There are battles for Moore, Nekhotevka, Zibrovka, Arkhangelsk, Novaya Tavolzhanka, Shchebekino, Rzhevka, Nezhgolsk and Voznesenovka.”
NOTE - This appears to be the first statements that the RDK et al are retaining terrain and not pulling back out as with earlier raids. These forces are relatively small, about 500 men so even the success they have had so far is incredible.
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Explosions reported at railway in Kaliningrad.
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Electrical power object was damaged as result of drone attack in Belgorod region, - Governor
OUTLOOK –
The Russian blogosphere is announcing any Ukrainian attack to be the great ‘offensive’. And with it stories on how they have destroyed the attacks. What is reality at this stage?
Ukraine has issued a public call for OPSEC - so as not to tip off the russians of their true intentions
1) I expect a large number of smaller attacks mixed in with reconnaissance in force actions to probe Russian lines gauging weakness/strengths, response times, artillery support etc. These are not the main offensive, but means it is soon in coming.
2) June 17th is the new moon. Under US doctrine that is the most likely period for US operations to start because we have such a superiority in night vision capabilities. Not sure how capable Ukraine’s capabilities are. The modern armor they have received have superior night vision capabilities so around this date the assault may begin in earnest.
3. Keeping the Russians jumpy prior to the assault works to wear them out and cause problems sorting out real from over stated attack claims.
My forecast is that the actual kick off of the offensive is within day given the indicators I’ve noted today and in the past. Weather is the driver and the winds are to the back of Ukraine.
Europe / NATO General –
Sweden has met all the requirements of Turkey and has the right to join NATO, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg said after talks with Turkish President Erdogan.
OBSERVATION - This is being taken to mean that Turkey has dropped their rejection of Sweden’s entry based on the Kurd situation.