Replies

Globalism / Great Reset –

Biden’s regime signed a global agreement with twelve other nations, including Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, and Spain, to crack down on farming to “save the planet” from “climate change.”

John Kerry, represented America in the pledge and said in May:
“We can’t get to net zero; we don’t get this job done unless agriculture is front and center as part of the solution,” Kerry, Biden’s climate czar, said at the AIM for Climate summit in Washington. “Food systems themselves contribute a significant amount of emissions just in the way in which we do the things we’ve been doing,” Kerry asserted.

“With a growing population on the planet – we just crossed the threshold of eight billion fellow citizens around the world – emissions from the food system alone are projected to cause another half a degree of warming by mid-century.”

OBSERVATION - Please note! First it was SUVs, next fossil fuel power plants, now it is agriculture. One of the stated goals of the WEF (Remember the Georgia guidestones statement too) is to drastically reduce the population to a ‘sustainable’ level. Eliminating electrical power, drastically cutting off the food supply will cause people to die. It will also cause increased resource wars which will also kill more people. Too many are asleep at the wheel on this issue, so this issue is rapidly growing - from Netherlands killing its agriculture, to Ireland culling up to 200,000 head of cattle, to Canada essentially banning fertilizer and now the focus is fixed on the US.

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A trial of universal basic income (UBI) will be trialled for the first time in England where 30 people will be given a monthly stipend with no strings attached.
The UBI scheme, to be run by the Autonomy think tank, will see 30 people given a monthly allowance of £1,600 a month without any requirements. The scheme will take place in the town of Jarrow in the North East of England and in the East Finchley area of North London, Sky News reports.

The pilot scheme will also draft a control group that won’t receive the free cash, in order for the researchers to measure the impact of the money on the lives of the participants.

OBSERVATION - buried in the proposals and goals of the WEF is this UBI concept tied to digital currency controls. Universal communism for all but the elite.

Economy –

Wednesday next week the fed is expected to come to a new rate decision. Early prognosticators are thinking that another quarter to half point increase is probable.

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Saudi Arabia will reportedly be cutting back on the amount of oil it exports to the world economy, in an effort to support the sagging price of crude after two earlier supply cuts by major oil-producing nations in the OPEC+ alliance failed to do so. The other OPEC+ members also decided to extend earlier production cuts through next year during a conference in Vienna, which coincides with the Saudi Arabian cut of 1 million barrels per day set to begin in July.

OBSERVATION - Recessions bring declines in oil demand. OPEC+ wants to keep prices “stable” and to do that they have to tailor supply to meet demand. Cutting production indicates that at the earlier reduced pumping rates, surplus was developing - which pushes down prices. So this global indicator shows economic slowdown. A big player in this is China who is facing an economic downturn - opposite of the hopes of OPEC+ who were earlier in the year looking at an upturn.

China –

There are multiple sources stateing that Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Iran agreed to conduct joint naval security for the region under China’s guidance.

OBSERVATATION - This grants China almost unprecedented control of the region if true. Further indication that the US has ceased to be the main influence in the region.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated June 1 2023

For all practical purposes, Russia’s winter offensive is over. Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders. Battlefield initiative is being taken over by Ukraine. At no location along the front is Russian succeeding in the attack.

Russia has been successful in finally capturing Bakhmut - a very pyrrhic victory by all counts, but doesn’t have the forces necessary to exploit the capture. It has also depleted its forces of a very usable reserve force to counter Ukrainian offensive actions.

Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles. Recent multi-way attacks on Kyiv resulted in most of the missiles/drones (well over 90%) being shot down and very few reaching a target.

Battle field shaping operations have forced Russia to spread its forces out, further complicating its defensive posture.

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PMC Wagner detained and interrogated no other but the commander of the 72nd Brigade, Roman Venevitin. Wagner and the 72nd Brigade shared positions in Bakhmut.

They detained the man, beat him, broke his nose, and forced to record a video admitting to firing at a car of PMC Wagner due to “personal animosity” towards them.

OBSERVATION - There is a great deal of hate between Wagner and regular forces. Part of this story includes regular Russian forces firing upon withdrawing Wagner elements. This follows reports that Russia also mined exit route taken by Wagner.

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Broadcasting of MIR TV company was hijacked starting 12:41 and before 13:18, aired fake address of Putin, - statement of company

RUMINT-
The Russian Ministry of Defense has announced that they believe a Major Offensive Operation by the Ukrainian Armed Forces has begun with Battles and Ukrainian Advances from the 23rd and 31st Separate-Mechanized Brigades of the Ukrainian Ground Force being reported earlier today in 5-Sectors along the Front specifically near the Town of Novodarivka in the Zaporizhia Region and the Town of Neskuchne in the Southern Dontesk Region.

REMEMBER - there will be a lot of misinformation flying from both sides. This story is important for Russian as putin / MoD try to regain control of the narrative in russian information space. Video provided by Russian sources do not support this claim - Ukraine sources are silent.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs in the 70’s and 80’s. predominantly dry throughout the forecast period.

RUMINT –
Some suggesting that UK is supplying stealth versions of its cruise missiles to Ukraine.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian Armed Forces ask for silence in the information space. OPSEC making confirmation of some reports difficult.

Russian targeted Ukraine with more cruise missiles and Iranian-made drones on June 4 making it the fourth consecutive day of strikes across Ukraine

Ukraine’s losses in the Battle of Bakhmut were lower than Russia’s by a factor of 7.5, National Security and Defense Council chief Oleksiy Danilov told Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera.
NOTE - Historical averages for defender losses are often in the 8-10 factor. So these numbers fit pretty well to history and are being considered credible. Others have calculated that for every 19 inches of ground gained in Bakhmut cost one Russian life. While costly, the strategy effectively bleed Russia of forces they will desperately need in the coming weeks/months.

Donetsk Front ——
Explosion reported near Azovstal in Mariupol.

According to head of PMC Wagner mercenaries Russian troops have partially withdrawn from Berkhivka village north of Bakhmut

Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Explosions were reported in Russian controlled Mykhailivka of Vasylivka district of Zaporizhzhia region

Russian Territory –
“Already at least 4 towns have come under the control of the RDK and the Legion of Free Russia. The Kremlin does NOT control these territories. There are battles for Moore, Nekhotevka, Zibrovka, Arkhangelsk, Novaya Tavolzhanka, Shchebekino, Rzhevka, Nezhgolsk and Voznesenovka.”

NOTE - This appears to be the first statements that the RDK et al are retaining terrain and not pulling back out as with earlier raids. These forces are relatively small, about 500 men so even the success they have had so far is incredible.

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Explosions reported at railway in Kaliningrad.

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Electrical power object was damaged as result of drone attack in Belgorod region, - Governor

OUTLOOK –
The Russian blogosphere is announcing any Ukrainian attack to be the great ‘offensive’. And with it stories on how they have destroyed the attacks. What is reality at this stage?

Ukraine has issued a public call for OPSEC - so as not to tip off the russians of their true intentions

1) I expect a large number of smaller attacks mixed in with reconnaissance in force actions to probe Russian lines gauging weakness/strengths, response times, artillery support etc. These are not the main offensive, but means it is soon in coming.
2) June 17th is the new moon. Under US doctrine that is the most likely period for US operations to start because we have such a superiority in night vision capabilities. Not sure how capable Ukraine’s capabilities are. The modern armor they have received have superior night vision capabilities so around this date the assault may begin in earnest.
3. Keeping the Russians jumpy prior to the assault works to wear them out and cause problems sorting out real from over stated attack claims.

My forecast is that the actual kick off of the offensive is within day given the indicators I’ve noted today and in the past. Weather is the driver and the winds are to the back of Ukraine.

Europe / NATO General –

Sweden has met all the requirements of Turkey and has the right to join NATO, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg said after talks with Turkish President Erdogan.

OBSERVATION - This is being taken to mean that Turkey has dropped their rejection of Sweden’s entry based on the Kurd situation.

Economy –

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said his bank is now projecting a mild recession starting in the first quarter of 2024.

OBSERVATION - BoA pushing hopium? After how last year ended, I am surprised that we are this far into 2023 without the full expression of the recession. Many economists had predicted it to be in effect by now.

CW2 / Domestic violence -

The social welfare class in America continues to see illegals usurp their priority to govt goods and services, increasing tensions between them.

Antifa has turned out to support some gay/transgender events, but in most cases have found themselves to be outnumbered by the other side.

Protest activity is still present in the Atlanta area over the new law enforcement training facility. Group “Stop Cop City” having continual protests and more reports of booby traps in public areas surrounding the facility.

POLITICAL FRONT –

(fox) House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer said Monday he will begin the process of holding FBI Director Christopher Wray in contempt of Congress, despite viewing and being briefed by bureau officials on the subpoenaed document that alleges President Joe Biden was involved in a criminal bribery scheme.

The FBI brought the document in question – an FBI-generated FD-1023 form that allegedly describes a $5 million criminal scheme involving then-Vice President Joe Biden and a foreign national relating to the exchange of money for policy decisions – to Capitol Hill on Monday for Comer, R-Ky., and ranking member Jamie Raskin, D-Md., to review in a secure SCIF (sensitive compartmented information facility), resulting from a back-and-forth between committee Republicans and the bureau over whether it was in compliance of his subpoena. The FBI initially offered to allow Comer to review the document at FBI headquarters, but amid Comer’s threats to hold Wray in contempt of Congress, the bureau offered additional accommodations to bring the physical document to Capitol Hill.

Despite the accommodation, Comer said Monday that the FBI is still not in compliance with the subpoena to turn over the physical document to the committee.

“At the briefing, the FBI again refused to hand over the unclassified record to the custody of the House Oversight Committee,” Comer said in a statement. “And we will now initiate contempt of Congress hearings this Thursday.”

OBSERVATION - Reviewing an UNCLASSIFIED document in a SCIF is extreme. Some FBI claims the higher security is necessary to protect the document as it is reportedly involved in with an investigation into Biden. Either case, congress is well within its rights to press contempt of congress charges against Wray.

Illegal Immigration –

A couple dozen illegals were dropped off in Sacramento CA and it causes newscum to go into a frothing conniption.

The great ‘flood’ of illegals still has’t materialized, although illegal entry has increased over past rates.

North/South Korea –

The influential sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un vowed on Sunday to push for a second attempt to launch a spy satellite as she lambasted a U.N. Security Council meeting over the North’s first, failed launch.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated June 6, 2023

Russia is on a defensive footing in Ukraine with some attempts at preemptive assaults in the east. In the face of increased Ukrainian probing attacks, Russia has yielded some large amounts of terrain.

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The Russian Ministry of Defense announced a major exercise in the Pacific Fleet starting on June 5th, just weeks after a major snap exercise. From June 5th to the 20th, they will conduct an exercise involving 60 combatant and auxiliary ships, 35 naval aviation aircraft, and more than 11,000 troops.

OBSERVATION - Could be a do over for commanders following the recent snap alert/deployments.

RUMINT-
The Russian MoD says that Ukraine began a large-scale offensive in the South Donetsk direction yesterday. Russia claims to have destroyed dozens of tanks and APCs along with killing thousands of Ukrainian troops.
NOTE - Russian MoD reports like this have always been way, way overblown, so I wouldn’t give it much credibility.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs in the 70’s and 80’s. predominantly dry throughout the forecast period.

RUMINT –
Remember, at this stage of the fight, much of what is being reported by either side is exaggerated or false reports. Pro - and Con- of any Ukrainian action should be viewed as a battle in the information sphere (propaganda) and that it shouldn’t be held as valid information. Once the offensive kicks off, much more verifiable information will become available.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
A number of reports out there that the Ukrainian offensive has begun. See OUTLOOK below on what this is based on.

However, the destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Dam and Power Plant in Kherson Oblast, has taken over reporting overnight. It appears that Russian forces (who controlled the dam) set off explosives at the power plant and the eastern half of the spillway, causing a breach in the dam and releasing a massive flood down stream. Photos show 300+ meters of the dam taken out. Russia denies the allegation and blames Ukraine.

Kakhovka HPP is the sixth (lower and last) stage of the cascade of Dnieper hydroelectric power plants, located five kilometers from the city of Nova Kakhovka, Kherson region. The loss of the Kakhovka water reservoir will create enormous challenge for the upstream Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Enerhodar as waters flowing now down the river were used to cool down the reactors

However, destroying the dam is a two edged sword as Crimean Canal, long disputed water supply to Crimea, is now lost with the dam. Flood mapping indicates that most of the severe flooding impact will be on the left bank of the river, causing much of the Russian defensive positions on the east bank of the Dniper River are also being flooded.

Before destroying the Kakhovka dam today, the Russians raised the water level to a record-high 17.5 meters by keeping the gates closed. (1.5 m higher than normal levels in the 16 meter range). FYI water level stages are based on elevation above sea level. The purpose would be to make the flooding as large as possible in order to stop the Ukrainian Army from conducting a counteroffensive in the area.

This is not the first time Russia has done something like this in war. On August 18, 1941, the Russians used 20 tons of explosives to blow up the Dnipro Hydroelectric Station dam, trying to hinder a German offensive. That action cost the lives of tens of thousands of Ukrainians.

Final note on the loss of Kakhovka dam, flooding assessments were conducted/reported after the Russian explosion from the west side of the Dniper River. There was some rumblings at that time Russia may do something like this. Ongoing flooding is matching computer projected impacts. Those impacts show it was a very dumb thing for Russia to do and as tied up / lost a substantial amount of forces trapped by those same flood waters.

Many around the globe are decrying this act as a war crime. Many Ukrainians in occupied Kherson will die. Russian soldiers in the flood zone will likely suffer the same fate.

In other overnight news, Ukrainian air defense shot down 35 of 35 Kh-101/Kh-555 missiles, launched by Russia overnight. This is the 5th consecutive day of such attacks.

Donetsk Front ——
Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar says Ukrainian troops have made significant advances north and south of Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, on 5 June.

Crimean front ———
Russian base was hit in Novooleksiivka of Kherson region this morning

OUTLOOK –
While the Russian blogsphere is going crazy with every Ukrainian attack being “the” offensive, it is just a sign of how jittery the Russians are. What is likely happening are light mech/motorized units conducting reconnaissance in force, feints, rear area activities and other actions aimed at preparing a larger movement for success. The actual offensive is close, within days, based on these actions.

The Kakhovka dam disaster will force the Ukrainian govt to divert some of its attention to the disaster but is unlikely to impact the offensive, in fact may help motivate Ukrainian soldiers even more.. As most of the destruction is on the Russian side the river, there is little Ukraine can do to affect disaster relief. Russia has been very paranoid about Ukrainian amphibious assaults. Ukraine however doesn’t have the assets to force such an operation, thus with the dam intact that Russian flank was secure. The threat the dam held was as a crossing point for Ukrainian units.

Anyway, the breach of the dam was deliberate, but may turn and bit the Russian forces with large personnel and equipment losses.

Overwhelming news surrounding the dam disaster may actually assist Ukraine from an OPSEC level - diverting attention from their maneuvering in preparation for the offensive.

Belarus -

There are still no signs of preparations for a military operation against Ukraine from the territory of Belarus.

Pakistan –

: Former Pakistan prime minister Imran Khan is seen as the front runner in upcoming (sometime in late 2023) national elections. Khan wants to make the military subordinate to the elected government and keep it that way. The Pakistan military considers this unacceptable.

Khan was removed from power on corruption charges over a year ago and has since lead substantial grass roots protests against the current govt. Those protests nearly started a civil war.

OBSERVATION - As a nuclear power, great concern continues over those nukes getting into the wrong hands.

Iran –

The IRGC is deploying artillery and other materiel to Iran’s northwest border with Iraq. This action suggest to some that the IRGC may engage in a short-term military conflict to confront perceived Israeli threats from Iraqi Kurdistan.

OBSERVATION - The nature of these ‘threats’ may actually be kurdish opposition to Iranian rule. Slapping the term “israeli” is just a cover excuse. Last year’s protests were the largest and strongest in Iranian regions with a high Kurdish component and Iran accused Iraq of sheltering dissident leaders in Iraq.

Mexico -

Recent elections in Mexico has seen the leftist Morena party, winning the governorship of the state of Mexico, which surrounds Mexico City. Morena now holds 21 out of 32 state governorships as the leftist party has come to dominate Mexican politics.

OBSERVATION - A leftist Mexican govt is seen as a greater threat as it would facilitate illegal passage into the US. With much of Central and South America moving left as well, it is a further sign that US influence is waning and that Chinese influence is on the ascendency.