Globalism / Great Reset –
Category not quiet by any means, but is ever present through actions in other categories.
Economy –
The Fitch downgrad of the United States’ credit rating has given the regime and Wall Street the fits. Press Secretary Karinne Jean-Pierre said “extremism” from Republican officials, including undermining governance and democracy. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has defended the strength of the US economy, and called the decision by Fitch, one of the three big ratings firms, “puzzling” and “entirely unwarranted”.
CNN is now blaming the US credit downgrade to Jan 6.
Other views include Kevin O’Leary Chairman of O’Leary Ventures
“There is no way to sugarcoat this at all. It’s bad. And I’ll tell you how you measure it’s bad. Basically, when you downgrade the U.S. economy, which is what this downgrading is, you are losing a little faith in the U.S. dollar and the U.S. Treasury bill because the default currency of the world, defined by every commodity priced by U.S. dollars, is the good faith of the U.S. government and the whole world. Trust it. Most sovereign funds keep the majority of their liquidity in U.S. dollars. That got hurt 24 hours ago because now you start to ask yourself, well, where is this going? A downgrade from AAA to AA, does it go to single? Now, if you’re a sovereign wealth fund, you start to put that in your mind. And the bottom line for you and me is the cost of capital goes up. In other words, what it costs for us to borrow money to fund the government and deficit goes up. No sugarcoating that.
OBSERVATION - This downgrade destroys the regime’s narrative of a booming economy.
**
Jeremy Siegel, a finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, views the chances of recession this year to be at 30%.
**
Ukrainian deputy prime minister Oleksandr Kubrakov said the Russian drone attacks damaged almost 40,000 tons of grains which had been destined for countries in Africa as well as China and Israel.
Wheat prices spiked by 5% before settling down to a 1.6% increase. This follows a 10% increase since the collapse of the wheat deal with Russia.
OBSERVATION - This will have some impact on the US in that overseas buyers of Ukraine grain will press upon the US market, raising our prices as well. The drought and heat wave in the plains has reduced the wheat crop, creating potential shortages to begin with. If you are storing wheat long term as a preparation item, you better get on the ball and get your supplies now.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Jon Cooper, a Barack Obama and Joe Biden supporter, posted a picture Monday of a house decked in Trump memorabilia.
“What would you do if this was your next-door neighbor?” Cooper asked in the postThe Missouri Democrat Party responded to the post by calling to “burn” the home.
“The roof, the roof is on [fire emoji] we don’t need no water, let the ‘insert your word’ burn!” the Missouri Democrat Party’s official account wrote in a since-deleted response to Cooper’s post.
Libs of TikTok snagged a screenshot of the Missouri Democrat Party’s post before they deleted it.
OBSERVATION - This wasn’t a general democrat hack making these comments, but the official Missouri Democrat Party! Time to watch very closely if this triggers its followers to go out and actually target homes with Trump flags / signs. Political violence at this stage of the 2024 election cycle could spin quickly out of control and give greater justification to more extreme right wing retaliatory actions.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments – Category modification
NOTE - Modifying the title of this category to bring in other military related stories/topics tha affect our readiness.
Effective 01 July 2024, the Navy will no longer require a rating or professional military knowledge test to advance to E-4. After 30 months as an E-3, the sailors will automatically advance to the NCO ranks.
OBSERVATION - Included in this are racial ‘quotas’. All adds up to a less qualified NCO corps at the Navy level, and is sure to spill over into the other branches under the umbrella of trying to improve retention.
IN RELATED - According to a recent Gallup poll, Americans’ confidence in the U.S. military has been steadily plummeting over the last two decades.
The survey reported only 60% of people have ‘a great deal’ or ‘quite a lot’ of confidence in the U.S. military, the lowest approval rating since 1997.
This is based in part on such action as the poorly executed withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the increase of woke rhetoric in the military.
OBSERVATION - As a veteran, this pains me to see, but it is a very real reality. I haven’t been able to recommend a military career to anyone for at least the last 20 years. I saw much of this starting under Clinton, expanded under 0bama (purge of generals) and climaxing under biden. To submit to the global reset agenda, America must be brought under submission and gutting the military is a key component along with gun confiscation.
Wuhan Plandemic –
Federal officials on Wednesday announced the appointment of Dr. Jeanne Marrazzo as the incoming director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID). This position was previously held by Dr. Anthony Fauci. Marrazzo is a fanatical and outspoken supporter of COVID lockdowns, the WHO, vaccine and mask mandates for adults and children.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Trump is scheduled to appear this afternoon for a hearing at the Washington D.C. E. Barrett Prettyman Federal Courthouse, where he will be processed and arraigned. Security has been increased for the arraignment.
Yesterday, an apparent hoax 911 call about an active shooting at the Capitol triggered a lockdown in three Senate office buildings and a major police emergency response.
U.S. District Judge Tanya S. Chutkan, an Obama appointee and donor - worked at the same law firm as Hunter Biden.
Biden Watch –
Biden remains on vacation. . . . .
Illegal Immigration –
NYC Mayor Eric Adams is begging biden to declare an immigration “emergency”. Doesn’t he listen to the regime’s claim that the border is secure and closed?
China –
China replaced two leaders of an elite unit managing its nuclear arsenal, triggering speculation of a purge. General Li Yuchao who headed the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) Rocket Force unit and his deputy had “disappeared” for months. Former deputy navy chief Wang Houbin and party central committee member Xu Xisheng were named as replacements.
This is the biggest unplanned shake-up in Beijing’s military leadership in almost a decade.
OBSERVATION - Xi is preparing his military for war and wants leaders that will support him and his plans. Perhaps he’s seeing putin’s woes with his many generals as a warning to his own military command structure.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated July 9, 2023 (under review Aug 2, 2023)
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. With Ukraine lacking air superiority, Russia has taken chance in using its aircraft (helicopters and fast movers) to more directly assist its ground forces, though at an increasing loss of airframes.
The month plus of Ukraine offensive action has forced Russia to give up terrain on all fronts - most notably in the Bakhmut area where Russian forces are now being in danger of being encircled.
Russian reserves are increasingly being used to try to stop Ukrainian advances. Just how big and combat capable of a reserve force is debatable. Reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv may be a ploy to freeze some of the Ukraine forces out of the offensive to the south. However, this number includes cooks, bottle washers and other logistic elements, so the ‘teeth’ numbers are likely much lower.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Thunderstorms early in the week with temperatures in eastern Ukraine forecast to reach the 100s towards the end.
Longer term forecasts for mid to late October include cold and rains across Europe. Highs only in the 50s and 60s Fahrenheit.
RUMINT –
Stories coming out that say Ukraine is about to launch a very large drone attack on Moscow. The recent attacks were designed to test for Russia AD weaknesses and prove out the new Ukraine “Beaver” drone capabilities. Mixed in with the rumors are those of newer drones that are designed to be decoys or hold EW systems to enhance the ability of the attack drones to reach their targets. It is being assumed that these drones are being constructed to be EW resistant - meaning their flight is programmed in and not needing to be connected to an operator or system to execute.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia launched another drone strike against Kyiv - with the Ukrainian air defense shooting down 15 Shahed drones. Russia for its part claims to have shot down 6 drones over Kaluga region(mid way to Moscow).
Though announced months ago, the red tape appears to finally have been cut and Ukraine pilots will begin training on the F-16 sometime this month. That means that pilots for the aircraft could be available by the end of the year.
Bakhmut Axis -
Russian troops have withdrawn from the positions at Andriivka, south of Bakhmut.
Russian Territory –
Explosions were reported at a battery factory in Achkasovo a town southeast of Moscow.
OUTLOOK –
More information on the conditions the Ukraine army is facing in its offensive operation. A key element appears to be the heavy and I mean heavy use of mines by Russia (by some reports mines as dense as 3 - 5 per sq meter). Such a concentration, with the season’s high grasses, have overwhelmed tactical mine removal equipment and makes quick armor thrusts deadly. Thus Ukraine has resorted to a slower, infantry based assault method supported by its growing superiority in counter battery fire as well as direct fire on an increasing stretched and exhausted Russian army. This process is by its very nature slow, but is effective for the Ukrainian method of operation.
Criticism directed toward NATO trainers in that, while combined arms action is good, it is heavily dependent on close air support. This is something Ukraine doesn’t have and won’t for 4-6 months. Part of this demands air superiority, which the F-16 can provide as well as a degree of ground support.
It is assumed that the mine concentration the highest in the approaches to the main prepared defense trenches and that the concentrations will diminish further to the south. That assumption remains to be seen.
Ukraine’s shift to a war of logistical attrition at the moment continues to show benefits and assists the fight on the ground - expect that to continue. Over the past week, Russian units have started to fall back quicker than earlier in the offensive when brought into contact with Ukraine forces.
Things remain dynamic and changes can happen quickly.
Belarus -
Current OSINT world assessment is that there is no indication that Wagner fighters in Belarus have the heavy weaponry necessary to mount a serious offensive against Ukraine or Poland without significant rearmament.
OBSERVATION - IMHO, they don’t need to mount a ‘serious’ offensive in order to significantly influence the war. Smaller scale insurgent operations striking stratigic nodes in Western Ukraine or even Poland would do the trick. And don’t forget, they could fall on the equipment of the Belarus army - who is reluctant to get into a scrape with Poland or Ukraine - to take care of the heavy weapon needs.
Current NATO stance is that any attack by Wagner will be treated as an attack by Russia proper - since Russia as part of the agreement stopping the rebellion - has incorporated Wagner into its more structured regular army command.
Poland –
Poland moving more units to the Belarus border as a result of the Belarus helicopter incursion.
Africa general –
According to Reuters, power supply from Nigeria to Niger, on the Birnin-Kebbi 80mw transmission line, has dropped to zero, indicating Nigeria has cut off power supply to Niger following the coup.
Meanwhile, the United States is preparing to evacuate most of its embassy staff from Niger, according to Politico. The potential evacuation would include spouses, children, and many U.S. diplomats not key to critical embassy functions.
Misc of Note –
Noted India’s rice closure and the panic buying, particularly here in the US. Thought I’d check the local wally world the other day to see what ripples have hit here in the Redoubt Virtually empty shelves where rice is normally placed for sale, and the prices seemed high. Our wally world is notoriously poorly stocked anyway, but this seemed to be worse than normal. Got Millet?
Wuhan Plandemic –
Pfizer just completed their purchase of Arena Pharmaceuticals for $6.7 billion, gaining dominant control of cardiovascular “treatments” for the horrific health trauma caused by the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vascular-clogging clot shots they themselves manufacture.
OBSERVATION - Follow the money, honey.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Trump was arrested yesterday and officially charged on four counts related to the J6 protests. He pled not guilty.
The RNC is unquestionably quiet about the latest round of political persecution. The never-trumpet RINOS as well, though one shouldn’t be surprised at that.
**
Text messages provided to the FBI show that a Chinese energy conglomerate that struck a controversial deal in 2017 with Hunter Biden began its pursuit of a relationship with the future first family back in late 2015 when Joe Biden was still vice president, hoping to seize on the name of one of America’s most famous political dynasties to provide cover for its ambitious plan to buy up energy assets inside the United States.
OBSERVATION - Nothing concerning the biden crime family surprises me anymore.
**
The Biden White House inquired in meetings with Facebook executives asking whether Facebook could tweak its algorithm to showcase stories from The New York Times and Wall Street Journal over content posted by “polarizing” conservative journalists and commentators in early 2021, according to meeting notes the social media firm turned over to Congress that are alarming some constitutional lawyers. The alleged focus of the meetings was to assist the administration while it struggled to combat COVID vaccine hesitancy
OBSERVATION - No First Amendment for you. . . .
Biden Watch –
Biden remains on vacation. . . . .
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated July 9, 2023 (under review Aug 2, 2023)
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. With Ukraine lacking air superiority, Russia has taken chance in using its aircraft (helicopters and fast movers) to more directly assist its ground forces, though at an increasing loss of airframes.
The month plus of Ukraine offensive action has forced Russia to give up terrain on all fronts - most notably in the Bakhmut area where Russian forces are now being in danger of being encircled.
Russian reserves are increasingly being used to try to stop Ukrainian advances. Just how big and combat capable of a reserve force is debatable. Reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv may be a ploy to freeze some of the Ukraine forces out of the offensive to the south. However, this number includes cooks, bottle washers and other logistic elements, so the ‘teeth’ numbers are likely much lower.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
See Europe / NATO General for discussion below on a possible Russian drone that hit Romanian territory.
See also Russian landing ship severely damaged by a Ukraine sea drone.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Thunderstorms early in the week with temperatures in eastern Ukraine forecast to reach the 100s towards the end.
Longer term forecasts for mid to late October include cold and rains across Europe. Highs only in the 50s and 60s Fahrenheit.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian USVs attacked the Russian port of Novorossiysk this morning. Russia’s largest port that it uses exports grain etc in the Black Sea. The USVs struck a Ropucha-class landing ship “Olenegorskiy Gornyak” , seriously damaging it and causing it to list heavily to the port side. Videos show it being towed back to Novorossiysk.
Russia continues to lose ground around Bakhmut, with Ukraine gaining tactically important territory south of the city.
In the south, Ukraine continues to work its way through the massive mine fields, but has established itself in Russian trenches constructed for the first line of defense.
Russian Territory –
In the Moscow region, an oxygen-battery warehouse has exploded - a place where batteries for drones were made.
Fire is burning in Yakhroma near Moscow: a warehouse with rubber and plastic is burning on an area of 2.5 thousand square meters.
NOTE - Big fires in large, wartime related facilities in Russia have been on the increase. Little word out as to the causes, but relationship to the war is more than coincidental and may reflect internal dissidents or deep buried sabotage teams.
OUTLOOK –
Meat grinder conditions along the front, but interesting developments in the long range war being expanded. Ukrainian USVs strike further south than before and got a major amphi warship. On the surface, this may not seem very big, but if the Kersch Bridge is taken out in totality, Russia will be reduced to ferrying men and material into Crimea. The loss of one of Russia’s large amphibious ships will severely degrade that capability. The USV strike also severs to warn that Russia has fewer and fewer placed it can hide its warships and will have to take measures to secure even more military harbors in the northern Black Sea region.
Seems like the operational pause in southern Ukraine by Ukraine may be ending soon so that they don’t lose operational momentum and advantage. Changes can happen very quickly in this dynamic environment.
Poland –
Poland sent attack helicopters to the Belarusian border, placing them on full alert of a border intrusion by Belarusian helicopters.
Polish PM Morawiecki also met at the Suwalki Gap today with Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda in a show of force against Wagner.
OBSERVATION - Inept Belarusian leadership is going to do something to give Poland the clearance to act, causing the war in Ukraine to expand almost exponentially .
Europe / NATO General –
During the last attack of the Russian Federation on the port of Izmail, one of the drones fell on the territory of Romania, - Romanian media. The Romanian govt has so far denied the incident.
Iran –
Senior U.S. Defense Officials have stated that preparations are underway to soon begin the Deployment of Marines and Sailors onto Commercial Shipping Vessels as they a pass through the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz in order to Protect them from hijackings or attacks which are often perpetrated by the Iranian Military; an Official has gone so far as to state that Marines from Camp Lejeune in North Carolina have already been transferred to Bahrain to begin training on Maritime Security.
OBSERVATION - This would be a significant escalation in the effort to stop Iranian seizures of vessels in the region. Iran may well see this as a challenge and force the issue in an effort to seize one of these vessels and parade captured marines for PR purposes. The US has firepower in the region already, but has been reluctant to use it.
Syria -
Iran and Syria foreign ministers held a press conference, calling on foreign forces to leave Syria’s territory. Al Mayadeen: “Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Al-Mekdad stressed that the US army should withdraw from Syria before it is forced out”
Iran is reportedly training militants to use attack drones in eastern Syria, likely part of a campaign to expel US forces.
OBSERVATION - I’ve noted the mentality of strength and the perception of weakness as a guiding principle for radical islam. Iran sees the US as weak and is looking to exploit that weakness for success over the ‘great satan’. This is not an entirely false assumption by Iran, the US foreign policy is in a shambles, and military readiness has slipped to a very low level.
Africa general – WAR WATCH
World Bank suspended payments to Niger. The World Bank said they were “alarmed” by attempts to overthrow the democratically elected government in Niger.
“In response, the World Bank has suspended disbursements on all operations until further notice, with the exception of partnerships with the private sector, which will continue with caution,” the World Bank said in a statement.
Nigeria, Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire, and Benin have all agreed to partake in a possible military intervention by ECOWAS.
EU ready to support military intervention in Niger, according to the official representative of the EU foreign service, Nabila Massrali.
On the other side of the ledger, Mali and Burkina Faso have both stated that they will support Niger if there is an intervention.
Some ECOWAS members are yet to commit to involvement in a potential intervention:
- Guinea Bissau
- Cabo Verde
- Sierra Leone
- Liberia
- Ghana
- Togo
The Head of the Miliary Junta in Niger, Brigadier General Abdourahamane Tchiani has announced that Niger will Immediately suspend all military cooperation agreements with France including the agreement which allows French Military Forces to remain in Niger, with Tchiani further stating that Niger will swiftly respond to any sort of aggression by ECOWAS or the West African Community
ECOWAS delegation led by General Abdulsalami Abubakar (Rtd), Sultan of Sokoto, Alhaji Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakar and President of ECOWAS Commission, H.E. Omar Alieu Touray, arrived in Niamey, Niger Republic, for talks with coup leaders
OBSERVATION - Western Africa is set to explode as the deadline for the coup to restore the elected leaders is quickly approaching. All sides are preparing for a war.
The Nigerien junta appear to be unlikely to cave to international pressure to undo its coup. This may force the junta to seek alternative auxiliary forces like the Wagner Group and may prompt a regional ECOWAS military intervention.
Current intel shows that Niger and its allies are out gunned by the declared ECOWAS forces. ECOWAS also has the backing of the EU and particularly France who are more likely to provide more aid than Russia can for Niger at this stage..