Posted on 02/20/2024 9:27:11 PM PST by SeekAndFind
I respectfully disagree. China is in no condition to fight a war like that.
Do they wish to take over the economies of the world? Yup. But they remain in a precarious situation right now. Their internal economy is in rough shape. Demographically, they are aging and cancer ridden. Their population is set to decline to under a billion people.
They depend on too many resources from outside. They get about 80% of their fuel imported through the straits, and through two pipelines from Russia. They are mining Africa and Central Asia into oblivion.
They are much more likely to try to grab resources in Russia before they go after the chip makers in Taiwan.
Taiwan is a strategic point for China as they would be able to control the sea lanes in the China Sea. But, right now that is not as critical as their resource constraints.
People thinking they are going to destroy Taiwan, engage the US, and have their economy destroyed are playing some kind of Call of Duty Fantasy game. Wars are won with logistics and the pieces are not lining up for them now-and they won’t for years to come.
China doesn't have to invade Taiwan to exert control over it. That could be done with military blockade or by exerting other economic pressures on it.
Taiwan has no chance against China in military conflict. And, we certainly shouldn't seek out a bloody war with China in its own backyard. It would be insanity for us to get involved directly.
That and bombard it until it’s a pile of dust. To stop these attacks Taiwan or the US and it’s allies would have to hit targets in China proper which I am sure will result in a response on the US mainland. How far are we willing to go to defend Taiwan? Under BiteMe, not far...
“I respectfully disagree. China is in no condition to fight a war like that.”
I respectfully agree!
But just because they are in no condition to fight a war of conquest against any overseas neighbor doesn’t mean they won’t do it anyway.
Just like we are seeing in the Russian war to conquer Ukraine the Russians were ill prepared and dreadfully overconfident of their abilities.
Why?
Because decades of authoritarianism has conditioned their people not to give their leadership actionable negative information. People who tell Putin or Xi a truth that is not what Putin or Xi want to hear risk being denounced as counter-revolutionary, defeatist, traitors, and etc.
It’s easier to tell them what they want to hear.
“Yes, Tsar Putin! We can esily defeat Ukraine in ten days!”
“Yes, Chairman Xi! We can easily defeat Taiwan in ten days!”
The ability of Russia or China to win a war does not at all factor into the political decision to go to war.
But I will say that China is better postured to win a land war than an amphibious war. Hopefully China turns its eyes north to reconquer Siberia while leaving Taiwan alone.
I dont think its possible to bombard Taiwan like that. China doesnt have the aircraft for a proper crushing air campaign.
And missiles wont do it. Too few. For proper city destruction it has to be iron bombs.
I agree with a lot of that.
But Xi is smarter than Putin.
Putin is a brawler. Xi will slice you with a razor.
“ Were they to even attempt it their society would collapse and the CCP would be either drastically altered or eliminated.”
I’m glad other people see this as well.
“ They have no experienced military, the PLA moral is low, all foreign ventures have ended in a humiliating failure.”
The PLA defeated people camped out in a public square in 1989.
That’s their victory.
And they had to use soldiers from way out in the boonies.
“ Taiwan IS China. The US recognizes that.”
Not true.
US pretends to recognize that for the sake of dealing with China.
And presumably to keep China from attacking Taiwan.
US has never recognized PRC sovereignty over Taiwan. Which is because that’s true.
Japan had sovereignty over Taiwan which it relinquished in 1952 as per the San Francisco Peace Treaty of 1951.
That’s where it stands now.
Japan surrendered to ROC/KMT Chiang Kai-Shek under General order 1 in 1945.
The Allies occupied it as a surrendered Japanese territory. That’s essentially what it still is, although it’s become a defacto nation.
“ This is Austria 1938, not Poland 1939.”
It’s neither.
The PLA defeated people camped out in a public square in 1989. That’s their victory. And they had to use soldiers from way out in the boonies.
—
They also defeated thousands of others: apartment dwellers, reporters, passers by, people on the way home from work, bus riders, medics, local militia troops, police, etc.
Out in the boonies - they were mountain troops - you get no further out than that for boonies in China.
“ I agree 100%. Most of the folks on Taiwan have family in China. They visit each other all the time.
China is not going to destroy the infrastructure there just to make a point.”
That’s not really true. Taiwan is like the US, settled over a couple hundred years in the 1600’s to 1800’s’s were a big influx and had family back in China. But it was 40 years or so before any contact could be made with family back in China and China went crazy over those years.
A lot of family visits did take place back in the late 80’s 90’s.
It’s a pretty small percentage maintain close ties with any family in China.
I’m beginning to think Xi is kind of crazy.
Yep.
Long live the people’s army.
He is not crazy. Just a committed commie of the Chinese variety.
Any decent board wargame will have those kind of odds. When you get to 6-1 odds victory is all but guaranteed.
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