Spain is at the peak of the curve

Daily Mail ^ | 4/2/2020 | Chris Pleasance

[Oshkalaboomboom]

Spain has suffered another record-breaking day of coronavirus deaths, with 950 people killed by the disease in the last 24 hours.

It marks the country's third consecutive day of record death totals, with 849 dead on Tuesday, 864 killed Wednesday and 950 dying between Wednesday and today.

The new toll also brings the country's total fatalities above 10,000, rising from 9,053 on Wednesday to 10,003 on Thursday.

The number of new cases also increased by 8,102 in the last 24 hours, bringing the total from 102,136 to 110,238, but marks the lowest percentage increase in cases yet - in a sign that lockdown measures put in place almost three weeks ago are working.

A rise of 8,102 is a 7.9 per cent increase on the previous day's figures, beating the previous daily low of 8.1 per cent which came on Monday.

The rate of increase was 42.7 per cent on March 13, the day before the lockdown was put in place and has gone as high as 200 per cent during the crisis.

Reducing the rate of infection is key to beating the virus, because each day of increases compounds on the number of cases the day before.

That means a 40 per cent increase in cases early on in the outbreak may only mean a few hundred more people getting sick, but the same percentage increase later on can mean tens of thousands of people getting sick in one go.

[Oshkalaboomboom]

I am living in Spain and we are on near total lockdown. Most people only leave their homes to buy food. I went out this morning. People are keeping 2 meters apart, wearing facemasks and gloves and the police are looking for people ignoring the restrictions. I passed a random checkpoint on the way back home. Since the majority of the cases are still in Madrid I can only assume city dwellers either aren't being as compliant or they already had so many people infected before the quarantine started (it was the original flash point thanks to an ill-timed women's march) that it hasn't started to flatten out yet.

[Travis McGee]

[bankwalker]

you have no way to know where the peak is until you’re substantially past it.

[JudgemAll]

Spanish flu was mild the first year and then came back super bad with high rate of death and spread. Someone dug up dead bodies to recreate the virus and study it...

[napscoordinator]

Sweden who said screw coronavirus, only has 250 deaths total. I’d say they are a success story for not screwing up their economy and having a low death count. I wish we had done the same. Unfortunately we have a communist media.

[Zhang Fei]

[Sweden who said screw coronavirus, only has 250 deaths total. I’d say they are a success story for not screwing up their economy and having a low death count.]

---

Sweden’s a late bloomer, but the ramp is starting. Check back in 2 weeks. Note that 2 weeks ago, US cumulative deaths were 150. We have just crossed the 5,000 mark.

[icclearly]

“ you have no way to know where the peak is until you’re substantially past it.”

You are correct. But, maybe it is a sign - until it’s not.

[cuban leaf]

Heh. That’s what I came here to post. :)

[cuban leaf]

I attended a “technical” stock trading class once. It was very interesting. The guy would take daily stock graphs from some past days and show them to us at snapshots and ask us to guess which way it went after that point, and then expose more of the graph.

There were times when you would see what looked like a solid upward trend and guess upward, yet that was the peak for the day. Or vice versa.

i.e. you can’t know what the peak was until significantly after the fact, even when a chart appears to be going in a certain direction. As they say, past performance does not indicate future performance.

[MoraBlack]

Their death rate is going to skyrocket in the days to come. Even now it`s way higher than in the US. 239 sounds low until you remember that Sweden has a population of only 10.000.000.

[ConservativeInPA]

I’m not in the mood to analyze numbers this morning, so could someone explain the difference between this article and the Guardian article which was posted several articles prior to this one. On the surface, they seem like opposites. This one has everything as a “record” and the Guardian is reporting “lowest”. I get the journalist technique of using the “record”. It is deceptive, since everything that is recorded is a record, e.g., this post of mine is record breaking, it just broke my lifetime record of total posts of FR. (I do that all the time - gemme an award.) But people, at least me, have a tendency to think of a record as being a high or a low for something, generally all-time high or low.

[napscoordinator]

That’s scary for them. If true they may be worse since they closed nothing and only recommended stay 6 feet from one another. We’ll have to wait and see.