Posted on 10/24/2022 1:08:00 PM PDT by janetjanet998
as of this morning mail ins
Dems 491,693 return rate 26.5% Reps 444,933 return rate 31.8
Dems up 46,760 in mail ins as of this morning
1st day of EV as of 3pm
Reps 40,482 Dems 23,575
Reps +16,907
Keep in mind not all counties started EV yet and the one missing are mostly red!! (will start later in the week)
FLORIDA VBM/EARLY VOTING UPDATE
VBM (as of 8:12 AM):
545,154 DEM
493,169 GOP
234,711 NPA
18,540 Other
1,291,574 Total
IPEV (as of 9:30 AM):
61,049 GOP
37,745 DEM
17,521 NPA
1,545 Other
117,860 Total
TOTAL:
582,899 DEM
554,218 GOP
252,232 NPA
20,085 Other
1,409,434 Total
Dems lead down to 28,700
FLORIDA 10/25 12PM EARLY VOTE IN PERSON UPDATE
81,745 GOP
48,935 DEM
23,348 NPA
1,999 Other
https://mobile.twitter.com/JackMFromBoca/status/1584941490249551874
Sumter killing it
1634 R to 265D
Dems lead down to around 22900
R’s killed it in person vote but huge mail in day saved the Dems so the R net was only +7Kish
More bigger Red counties start tomorrow and Tuesdays in usually the biggest mail in day (weekend backlog) So R’s may have a good rest of the week
R’s may take the lead Late Thursday or Friday
Updated Dems lead 20K
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PjXYZ8XnHeHBQp5cPf-gZ0Xi4b9t5qdA5iPYgFwDdoQ/htmlview#
Holy Sh*t look at Miami-Dade combined VBM/EV
R35,575 D46,196 Other1,355 Indie24,000
update
DEM lead down to around 9000
R64,814 D73,876 O2,145 IND38,342
If indies vote against Biden like they poll, then Palm Beach is a red county.
If indies vote against Biden like they poll, then Palm Beach is a red county.
Reg R’s might even overtake Reg D’s on election day
John Couvillon
@WinWithJMC
NEW EVING COUNTIES IN FL
I was told about 6 counties in FL starting their EVing today (before today, only 38/67 counties were early voting). Those numbers are:
21558 EVs, 63-21% R/D (these counties supported Trump 60-38%)
The IP data for the other 38 counties before this AM was 52-32% R/D, or 223K in person early votes, for proper context.
Daniel Gruhn
@dg_sailingfan
·
42m
Replying to
@WinWithJMC
https://tqv.vrswebapps.com/?state=FL&county=DAD
D’s only lead 74,353 to R’s 65,677 in the combined VBM/IP Vote in Miami-Dade. TRULY MIND-BOGGLING John! I’ve never seen anything like that.
John Couvillon
@WinWithJMC
FLORIDA IP EVing
Before: 223K, 52-32% R/D
Today so far (44/67 counties’ voting): 135K, 55-29% R/D
NEW TOTAL: 358K, 53-31% R/D
Dems only up 142 votes overall now
Wow
John Couvillon
@WinWithJMC
ONE MORE FLA POST
Mail today: +138K, 45-35% D/R
IP today: +138K, 54.5-29% R/D (44/67 counties voting)
TOTAL: +276K, 45-37% R/D
GRAND TOTAL: 1,937,118, 40.50-40.49% D/R (+142D)
https://mobile.twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1585429205898395653
I think all these data points (EV, Florida and general polling) are just re-affirming the governor and senate races aren’t really competitive.
Yes the vote-by-mail has shifted blue a bit. But there’s only so many votes there. In terms of in-person EV, the Dems are winning the following counties:
Alachua (Gainesville/UF) by 200
Broward (South Fl) by 4,000
Gadsden (Tally) by 600
Leon (Tally) by 200
That’s it. Orlando is a push. Dems losing in Jacksonville, Tampa, Miami-Dade County (lol), Palm Beach (lol!) and getting absolutely decimated everywhere else.
Too cool!
PublicSq. and Dan Bongino follow
Florida’s Voice
@FLVoiceNews
BREAKING: In the 2022 election, Republicans have taken the lead in Florida early voting, including mail-in and in-person
🔴814,652 Republicans
🔵807,311 Democrats
CONTEXT: In 2020, Democrats lead early voting (mail-in and in-person combined) by 115,416 on Election Day when Donald Trump won the state by 3.4 points
update
Dems lead now below 7900 in Dade
update
MAIL R 633,336 D 720,762
EARLY R 262,654 D 144,638
TOTAL R 895,990 865,400
R + 30,590
https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats
Early voting should be illegal. And where it IS legal, any reporting on trends should carry the same penalty as jury tampering.
Ok Jim. This is party registration of who has voted only, not who they actually voted for.
Might wanna join the 21st century.
Dems lead in Dade has fallen to about 6750
That is just about the only thing interesting left to watch.
Got the remaining 14 counties starting EV on Saturday, as all counties are required to do the next 7 days. They’re all pretty small.
It’s hard to make comparisons to 2020. VBM was D+14%, EV was R+13% and then ED was R+17%. So Election Day was even stronger than EV. I can’t see that repeating, but it’s hard to comprehend a R+25% in EV so far (that if anything .. is trending up).
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