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Can anyone solve a statistical probability problem for me?
N/A | Feb 2, 2016 | vanity

Posted on 02/02/2016 1:35:32 PM PST by jmaroneps37

I am completing my family tree which goes back 39 generations on one branch and 14 on another. I would like to explain to my grandchildren how unique the DNA combination they have is. We have roots to a canonized saint in our bloodline as well as an American Revolutionary War solider and a famous Irish revolutionary hero too. I just need to show the children how small the odds are of duplicating our family tree. Anyone that can help please Freepmail me, Thanks much


TOPICS: Education; Miscellaneous
KEYWORDS: genealogy; helixmakemineadouble; statistics
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I have a feeling the odds will be astronomical
1 posted on 02/02/2016 1:35:32 PM PST by jmaroneps37
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To: jmaroneps37

Potato!


2 posted on 02/02/2016 1:36:36 PM PST by IllumiNaughtyByNature (Trump/Cruz 2016 or the other way around.)
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To: jmaroneps37
The closer your function approaches '1', the more likely it is true.

Wait...that might be epidemiology...


3 posted on 02/02/2016 1:40:25 PM PST by Cletus.D.Yokel (Catastrophic Anthropogenic Climate Alterations: The acronym defines the science.)
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To: jmaroneps37

How the Dickens did you go back so far? I can’t imagine reliable records being available prior to 1850.


4 posted on 02/02/2016 1:40:32 PM PST by Dalberg-Acton
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To: jmaroneps37

1:1395.2


5 posted on 02/02/2016 1:41:59 PM PST by Rio (Proud resident of the State of Jefferson)
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To: Cletus.D.Yokel

The answer is 42.


6 posted on 02/02/2016 1:42:09 PM PST by dfwgator
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To: jmaroneps37

42


7 posted on 02/02/2016 1:42:16 PM PST by Eddie01 (If you burnin' bandwidth with your mind, find time to pay the organ grind - Donate to FreeRepublc)
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To: dfwgator

Ha!


8 posted on 02/02/2016 1:42:35 PM PST by Eddie01 (If you burnin' bandwidth with your mind, find time to pay the organ grind - Donate to FreeRepublc)
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To: jmaroneps37

I don’t know what they are but they ARE astronomical. My cousin and I have been doing geneology for years. We’ve traced my dad’s line back to Jamestown and my mother’s side back even further...1606 in Acadia, (they’re Cajuns) just tracing the father’s lineage is a feat, but add in the wive’s lines and both sides of their family and so on and in just a few generations you have thousands of entries, if you go wide enough. My cousin is doing a lot of that, but just thinking about it makes my brain hurt.


9 posted on 02/02/2016 1:43:50 PM PST by pgkdan (The Silent Majority Stands With TRUMP!)
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To: jmaroneps37
I just need to show the children how small the odds are of duplicating our family tree.

Tell them to buy a lottery ticket

10 posted on 02/02/2016 1:44:00 PM PST by 1Old Pro
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To: jmaroneps37

I’m not sure how to attack this one, but I do know if you flip a penny 600 times there is a 100% chance you will get very bored.


11 posted on 02/02/2016 1:44:40 PM PST by Idaho_Cowboy (Ride for the Brand. Joshua 24:15)
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To: Dalberg-Acton

When you are able to trace your ancestors back to Europe, the church kept vital records such as births, weddings, and deaths. Many of those records survive today.


12 posted on 02/02/2016 1:44:51 PM PST by Blood of Tyrants (Liberals are the Taliban of America, trying to tear down any symbol that they don't like.)
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To: jmaroneps37

The odds duplicating you family tree are ten times more likely than finding Hillary Clinton getting indicted or having sex with Bill Clinton.

The odds are also more likely than finding Obamas birth certificate as being legitimate.


13 posted on 02/02/2016 1:44:52 PM PST by PA-RIVER
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To: jmaroneps37

My limit. 1+1+1 = 3


14 posted on 02/02/2016 1:46:12 PM PST by heights
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To: jmaroneps37

You are completely unique, so I’d say 1 in 7 billion or whatever earth’s population is.


15 posted on 02/02/2016 1:47:02 PM PST by DannyTN
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To: dfwgator

Thanks but, I have to go fix my motorcycle right now....


16 posted on 02/02/2016 1:47:11 PM PST by Cletus.D.Yokel (Catastrophic Anthropogenic Climate Alterations: The acronym defines the science.)
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To: dfwgator

And...I’ve been asked by my neighbor, Dr. Schroedinger, to see if I can catch his cat...in a box...

Quantum Funnies for the P-Chem crowd...


17 posted on 02/02/2016 1:49:41 PM PST by Cletus.D.Yokel (Catastrophic Anthropogenic Climate Alterations: The acronym defines the science.)
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To: Dalberg-Acton

Royal families had to keep track of their members to enforce property claims and noble entitlements.

I can trace my family back to the 800’s.


18 posted on 02/02/2016 1:49:48 PM PST by <1/1,000,000th%
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To: jmaroneps37

THIRTY NINE generations? Holy cow. What is a generation, 25 -30 years? So we are talking about 1170 years ago? The closest I ever got to that length was my mother was born in Scotland with a last name of Lumsden and I found out there was a Lumsden clan in the late 1200s that was at the negotiation meeting with King Edward the 1 reps, the evil King portrayed in the movie Braveheart, obviously he didn’t hang them or kill them all off though like in the movie otherwise I probably wouldn’t be here. But I mean going back 1170 years, that’s in the 800s, thats the time of Pope Leo III who crowned Charlemagne.


19 posted on 02/02/2016 1:49:53 PM PST by GrandJediMasterYoda (Can we please kill the guy already who invented the saying "My bad"?)
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To: jmaroneps37

Why? You grandkids don’t feel special enough?


20 posted on 02/02/2016 1:50:13 PM PST by Vermont Lt
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