Poor Democrats, every time they turn their backs the pollsters sneak in honest generic surveys

vanity | August 9, 2018 | By Kevin Collins

[jmaroneps37]

After the results of the special election in Ohio were announced and the air was taken out of both sides, the Democrat controlled media decided to celebrate anyway.

Truth be told the lackluster Republican, who got more votes on election day, might still lose because there are more than enough outstanding ballots to overcome his slim lead.

Nevertheless, since the Democrat controlled media has little else in the way of honest and verifiable good news to talk about for their masters, they turned to wild talk, no make that insanely disparate talk, about Ohio being a sign that Democrats will take 60 Republican House seats in November.

It made them feel good to say this but fortunately for America instead of a building blue wave of enthusiasm for Democrats a comparison of the generic ballot surveys from four different polling firms says just the opposite is happening.

It is an established fact which is accepted by both sides, that for a generic ballot survey to show good news for Democrats it must indicate a 6-point lead or better.

In 2016 even with a 6- point lead going into Election Day the Democrats picked up just 12 seats.

The just released generic survey numbers from four polling firms are very good news for Republicans and show an erosion of support for Democrats.

Consider the results of these newly released generic polls.

An August 7th Reuter/IPSOS survey that spoke to 1479 registered voters found Democrats leading by 2 points.

An August 7th Economist Yougov survey that spoke to 1289 registered voters found Democrats leading by 3 points.

An August 2nd IBD/TIPP survey that spoke to 878 registered voters found Democrats and Republicans tied.

An August 2nd Rasmussen survey that spoke to 2500 likely voters found Democrats leading by 4 points.

The previous surveys reported by these firms showed the following results.

A July 31st Reuter/IPSOS survey that spoke to 1222 registered voters found Democrats leading by 4 points.

A July 31st Economist/ Yougov survey that spoke to 1571 registered voters found Democrats leading by 6 points.

A July 26st Rasmussen survey that spoke to 2500 likely voters found Democrats leading by 6 points.

A June 29th (their last survey) IBD/TIPP survey that spoke to 900 “adults” found Democrats leading by 8 points.

In the four older reports Democrats averaged a lead of 6 points.

In the four recent surveys the average generic lead for Democrats is now 2.25%, hardly the stuff of a 60-seat smashing victory; but much more like a building Red Wave.

[jmaroneps37]

If these are the reported numbers what are the real numbers?

[BenLurkin]

Is there a vote fraud adjustment?

[Dilbert San Diego]

We have to be concerned about fraud and recounts.

Every time there is a recount in a close election, the Democrat gains more votes. There are always uncounted ballots found in the corner, or in someone’s car trunk, etc.

Someone once said, if it’s not close, they can’t cheat.

[jmaroneps37]

I see the “What can I turn good news into bad news and be afraid of today” crowd is up and at it early today.

[tired&retired]

I hang up on the pollsters. They call frequently. Earlier this week is was the Pew Research Poll. I used to answer them as a Black Female that hated Obama. Now I don’t even bother.

[DoodleDawg]

...but much more like a building Red Wave

So you're predicting the Democrats will lose 11 seats in the Senate, how many seats will the GOP pick up in the House from your "building Red Wave"?

[Liz]

Election officials in Ohio found 588 uncounted votes Wednesday in a suburb of Columbus, county officials said. “The votes from a portion of one voting location had not been processed into the tabulation system,” officials explained. “Election night results are tabulated through the use of a device called a master PEB that is returned to the Board along with flash drives from each machine. The Griswold Center voting location had two master PEB’s, only one of which was read and processed into the tabulation system on Election Night. The additional votes identified during this preliminary audit will be reflected in the final official results certified by the Board of Elections on August 24th.”

You dont say......a tech failure, eh?

Better call Obama.

Tech masterminds of the universe united.

[fireman15]

Truth be told the lackluster Republican, who got more votes on election day, might still lose because there are more than enough outstanding ballots to overcome his slim lead.

That's the way it works here in Western Washington. If a race is close, there will be endless recounts until the Democrats find just enough “lost” votes to push their candidate into the lead. I expect massive fraud this time around.

[jmaroneps37]

“So you’re predicting the Democrats will lose 11 seats in the Senate, how many seats will the GOP pick up in the House from your “building Red Wave”? “ I have not begun to look at House races but since you ask let’s consider the New Jersey Senate race. When I said Menendez was in trouble people on this site laughed and mocked me. Well now that the New York Times is saying the same thing I haven’t heard from them. Nevertheless, the illogical take the Times is spinning out is that in order to save and take House seats Democrats will pour into the polls and vote straight Democrat which will save Menendez. This new generic information doesn’t support that does it?

I worked in Republican campaigns many times over the years and the idea of enthusiasm moving upward is not something that happens. This 2.25% generic lead says it won’t happen. BTW I’ve now seen a new New Jersey Senate poll showing good news for the Republican but I can’t quote it because I don’t have the link.

[DoodleDawg]

I have not begun to look at House races but since you ask let’s consider the New Jersey Senate race.

I didn't ask about Senate races, I was asking about your Red Wave in the House. If you have not begun to look at House seats then how can you be predicting a Red Wave?

[jmaroneps37]

When I said I hadn’t looked at House seats I wasn’t saying I didn’t see good signs for Republicans in the House. The generic poll IS a measure devised to gauge voter sentiments on the kind of House they want. So a 2.25% “lead” for Democrats is actually far below what they need to take the House. In the spring I examined Wrong Way Larry Sabato’s 27”toss ups” he was touting. I deconstructed all but two. When the Senate picture becomes clearer I will turn to the House.