A Scientific Explanation Of Why Shutdowns Are Useless To Fight Coronavirus

Powerline Blog ^ | 05/14/2020 | John Hinderaker

[SeekAndFind]

For the third time, Peter Robinson interviews Dr. Jay Bhattacharya of Stanford Medical School for Uncommon Knowledge. Dr. Bhattacharya is cogent and articulate, and this conversation, a little under an hour long, is well worth your time. Among other things, he reports on a study he has just completed of COVID-19 in employees of major league baseball.

Dr. Bhattacharya brings bad news:

1) Only a small percentage of Americans, less than one percent in his study, maybe two or three percent nationwide, have had COVID-19. Herd immunity requires something like 70 percent or 80 percent to have antibodies. So the disease has a very long way to go before it has run its course.

2) There is no vaccine for COVID-19 on the horizon, and there may never be one.

3) The shutdowns that have paralyzed the developed world have, to some degree, slowed the spread of the disease, at tremendous cost. But that only delays the inevitable. There will never be a time when it is “safe” to stop the lockdowns. The disease isn’t going away.

4) Dr. Bhattacharya is also eloquent in describing the disastrous human toll, in lives and misery, that the shutdowns have inflicted around the globe.

On the other hand, Dr. Bhattacharya has good news, too. The fatality rate from COVID-19 is low–worldwide, somewhere between 0.1 percent and 0.5 percent, probably closer to the low end of that range. The typical seasonal flu is said to have a fatality rate of around 0.1 percent. So COVID-19 is probably somewhat worse than the average flu virus.

Further, another of Dr. Bhattacharya’s studies found that 70 percent of those who contract COVID-19 are asymptomatic. That is, they wouldn’t know they had had the virus if they weren’t tested. That percentage may be low. Studies of prisoners in several states have found that more than 90 percent of those who tested positive were asymptomatic. So the good news is, when you get COVID-19–and it is highly probable that you will get it, regardless of what governments do–it is unlikely to do you any harm, and you probably won’t know you had it.

This is me talking, not Dr. Bhattacharya, but it follows, I think, from all of the above: The conventionally posed choice between fighting the disease and salvaging our economy is entirely wrong. The choice is not disease vs. economy. The disease is here, and there is nothing governments can do to stop it. (They can, of course, close down access to nursing homes, a mixed blessing if you are elderly.) The real choice is between the disease with a flourishing economy, and the disease with a devastated economy. The disease is a constant.

Here is the interview:

CLICK ABOVE LINK FOR THE VIDEO...

[TBP]

Who is this guy? He needs to follow the science.

[AndyJackson]

A Scientific Explanation

This is not a scientific explanation, and as a scientist I despise people who try to argue what are political decisions with bullshit.

Science is numbers, causes, means of transmission and statistics of outcomes, etc., what treatments result in what prognoses with what likelihoods, etc.

The choices one makes informed by that are political choices, also informed by law, economics, etc.

Scientists should stop abusing science to do what science cannot do, or what it should not be used to do, which is to force political decisions as if they are preordained.

And by the way, while I support valid and effective public health measures in the face of contagion, I don't support the lockdown and forced economic collapse of our country. But that isn't a "scientific choice," it's an economic and political choice. And if our laws and constitution don't allow it, it's a legal choice.

[proud American in Canada]

Great article!

Finally some good news!

[AndyJackson]

And do “what the science says.” Ever sit and listen to science speaking to you? I haven’t either. I hear daily jibber jabber from supposedly great scientists, but from science, not a word. Ask 10 scientists for political opinions and you will get 30 answers, except on the Trump question, any Trump question.

[SeekAndFind]

RE: Who is this guy? He needs to follow the science.

For your perusal:

SOURCE: https://www.hoover.org/profiles/jay-bhattacharya

Jay Bhattacharya, M.D., was a research fellow at the Hoover Institution. He is an assistant professor at Stanford University Medical School.

MORE HERE:

https://profiles.stanford.edu/jay-bhattacharya

Dr. Jay Bhattacharya is a Professor of Medicine at Stanford University. He is a research associate at the National Bureau of Economics Research, a senior fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, and at the Stanford Freeman Spogli Institute.

He holds courtesy appointments as Professor in Economics and in Health Research and Policy. He directs the Stanford Center on the Demography of Health and Aging.

Dr. Bhattacharya’s research focuses on the economics of health care around the world with a particular emphasis on the health and well-being of vulnerable populations. Dr. Bhattacharya’s peer-reviewed research has been published in economics, statistics, legal, medical, public health, and health policy journals. He holds an MD and PhD in economics from Stanford University.

Academic Appointments:

Professor, Medicine - Primary Care Outcomes Research
Senior Fellow, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR)

Professor (By courtesy), Health Research & Policy
Administrative Appointments

Director, Center on the Demography and Economics of Health and Aging, Stanford University (2011 - Present)
Research Associate, Acumen, LLC (2007 - Present)

Research Associate, National Bureau of Economics Research (2002 - Present)

Professional Education:

PhD, Stanford University, Economics (2000)

MD, Stanford University (1997)

Patents:

Jay Bhattacharya, Michael Schoenbaum, Mark Spranca, Neeraj Sood. “United States Patent 7,426,474 Health Cost and Flexible Spending Account Calculator”, Sep 16, 2008

[AndyJackson]

There are grandstanding frauds on both sides of this argument.

[Bob434]

[[Science is numbers, causes, means of transmission and statistics of outcomes, etc.,]]

I’ll just add that it is an —objective analysis— of those things you mentioned- (NOT Michael Mann hockystick analysis- that’s for sure), but sadly in many cases it no longer is- science is being bastardized by propagandists-

[absalom01]

I’m pretty sure that I saw the peer-reviewed study that showed that the “clampdown” was better than “doing nothing” published in the J.I.R. the other day.

AmIWrong?

[KTM rider]

there was a video going around a few weeks ago that got taken down, if I remember correctly it was an interview with a coleague of Fauci's who was a virologist who said this same thing and basically claimed that this pandemic was produced as a worldwide extortion racket to advance socialism and crush the US economy in order to topple the USD as world reserve currency

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/world-will-need-new-financial-system-after-covid-19-1.4211363

[Fungi]

This was not meant to be an article on a peer reviewed “scientific” journal. So you are a scientist? So what, I am too.

[Secret Agent Man]

and then when science says, oops we need to do the opposite...

keep believing fully in us, sheeple

[KTM rider]

its a known fact that these cold viruses like SARS 2 (COVID19) are more under control by building natural immunity. Although it appears that there is a movement to exploit the virus just as "Climate Change" was intennded to perform,

but the Socialists of the world hit the jackpot with this virus, .....so why would they want it to go away !

[rfp1234]

Yeah, I saw it in JIR, right after the article on Preparation of Pure Crap.

[Cronos]

this is not a "scientific explanation" - the author just posts claims and political reasoning

If you look at the empirical evidence from the 1918-1920 Spanish flu the findings demonstrate a strong association between early, sustained, and layered application of nonpharmaceutical interventions and mitigating the consequences of the 1918-19 influenza pandemic in the United States. This separate study shows the same - lockdowns emphatically and empirically work

cities that adopted the most aggressive social distancing measures had the highest economic growth after the restrictions were lifted.

Moreover, cities that implemented NPIs 10 days earlier than other cities increased their manufacturing employment by 5% more than those that imposed restrictions later. The difference lasted through to 1923.

Overall they found an additional 50 days of social-distancing was associated with a 6.5% percent increase in manufacturing employment.

Countries that went into lockdown early - Austria, Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Romania, Greece, Portugal, Germany were hit far less hard than those who went into lockdown LATE like Italy, Spain, France, the UK and Sweden.

[poinq]

The science says there is no way to stop the virus. This guys last statement is true. You can’t stop the virus because you can’t track the virus. You would have to test everyone, everyday. Not going to happen.

If you can’t tell who has the virus,
and its highly infectious,
and 5% of the populous already has the virus,
and you don’t know who they are,
then you cannot stop the virus unless you can test everyone to figure out who has it. And of course you have to continually test these people while you are testing and tracking. Like a game of wack a mole. You will never win.

[dp0622]

I don’t know what the #### that charts means and I don’t care.

People die. This time it’s from a virus that picks on the weak and old.

Take some precautions and live life.

I can’t stand what faggots this country has become.

[seastay]

People standing in line at walmart, sharing the pipe cutter at home depot and having food delivered made by unknown cooks with grubby hands is not a quarantine.

Apollo 11 astronauts 3 weeks in a germ isolated environment is a proper quarantine , not three months of tyranny with home deliveries and “essential” approved outings by the governor

https://www.businessinsider.com/photos-apollo-11-crew-quarantined-3-weeks-after-moon-landing-2019-7

Its no wonder we have never been back to the moon

[Secret Agent Man]

exactly

this is why they hate the hcq discovery blowing up their plans

[AndyJackson]

BA