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To: Cronos
That’s a meaningless chart. It assumes: 1, they know the date of first infection from each nation’s patient zero, and delta time to the decision to lockdown are at all analogous. 2, it seems there is no adjustment for size of each nation’s population, and the "death count". 3, it acts as if every nation is homogenous in its death rate, regardless of population density related to lockdown. 4, assumes every nation are somehow equal when counting deaths, and that, 5, lockdown is the only variable that could possibly effect daily death counts.

It’s absurd. It’s a chart put together by a person who has no clue what he’s measuring, or what he’s trying to compare, and in fact is comparing many unsimilar things. It’s throwing data against the wall and saying, see, they correlate. But what do they correlate when nothing is normed?!

As for comparing ANYTHING to the Spanish Flu epidemic as a analog for what should be done today, there’s no possible comparison. They quarantined the SICK, not the healthy. The shut down travel, and limited contact through social distancing, and instituted cleaning and strict antiseptic practices, even though they had no knowledge of viruses, but not the economy.

To analogies to the Spanish Flu with its millions of dead is sheer fear mongering, especially when we don’t see anywhere near those levels of contagion or mortality in COVID19.

22 posted on 05/15/2020 12:42:54 AM PDT by Swordmaker (My pistol self-identifies as an iPad, so you must accept it in gun-free zones, you hoplophobe bigot!)
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To: Swordmaker

Nope, it’s far from meaningless.

1. it’s based on the date of the first reported infection

1.b. the time to decision to lockdown is not unknown but a fixed known

2. the adjustment is about the daily deaths - it doesn’t account for population, but India is lower than China for instance, and Austria is behind Switzerland

3. It does - that’s how you take a reasonable model rather than have multiple variables

4. Again, a valid assumption

5. Again, that’s the variable - if you wish to add in more, that can be done - like anything you limit the variables otherwise you end up with thousands of variables.

It’s not absurd. It’s a valid chart showing that lockdowns have worked.

Clearly if you compare Sweden to Norway+Denmark, then forced lockdowns have worked — and remember that Sweden has had a non-forced but de facto followed lockdown


24 posted on 05/15/2020 1:27:27 AM PDT by Cronos (Re-elect President Trump 2020!)
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