Posted on 09/15/2020 6:44:01 PM PDT by byecomey
Several states have begun releasing reports on voters who have requested vote-by-mail (VBM) ballots. North Carolina, in particular, has begun publishing a daily report here.
Lockdowns have driven a surge in demand for mail-in voting. North Carolinas mail-in requests currently stand at over fourteen times the demand at the same time in 2016.
In 2016, Republicans had the advantage, requesting forty percent of all VBM ballots to the Democrats thirty-one percent. In 2020, Democrats hold a commanding advantage: having fifty-one percent of all VBMs to the Republicans 16 percent. The charts below show the difference:
2016 vs. 2020 VBM makeup. Dont panic. This is actually bad news for Joe.
Should Republicans toss in the towel then?
No! Actually, Joe Biden needs to throw in the towel.
I will explain why.
It is well known that the MSM has made a massive push to get Americans to vote by mail. Thus far, this push has been effective on Democrats, but not so much Republican. Nate Silver says:
According to a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 30 percent of registered voters said they planned to vote by mail, and 43 percent said they planned to vote in person on Election Day. But among Trump supporters, only 11 percent said they planned to vote by mail, and 66 percent said they planned to vote in person on Election Day. Among Joe Biden backers, 47 percent said they planned to vote by mail, while only 26 percent said they planned to vote in person on Election Day. (The share who said they would vote early in person was consistently 20-21 percent among all three groups: Trump supporters, Biden supporters and voters overall.)
The percent of Democrats intending to vote by mail rises to 57% in battleground states, which have remained locked down for the most part. Source
Polls show that Democrats strongly believe that voting is a health risk.
Sixty-three percent of Democrats believe voting is dangerous Source
Given these priors, it seems exceedingly unlikely that Democrats are inclined to go out and vote during Election Day. Joe Biden must get the majority of Democrats to vote by mail!
So what voting methods will voters take? Heres what a poll says:
The surveys are consistent:
What does that mean for North Carolina ballots? Well, we can take the numbers from 2016 and extrapolate them to figure out target turnouts for Joe Biden based on stated voter preferences.
First, we find out how many people in each registered party voted in 2016 Source:
In 2016, 1,872,593 Democrats voted in the election, compared to 1,571,730 Republicans and 1,305,330 Independents. Assuming the respective parties voted for their respective candidate at 100%, independents broke strongly for the Republicans.
We can use these numbers to establish target baselines for each party to reach 2016 turnout levels using stated voting by mail preferences.
2016 NC turnout | VBM % (estimate) | 2020 NC VBM target to match 2016 | |
---|---|---|---|
Democrats | 1,872,593 | 50% | 936,296 |
Republicans | 1,571,730 | 18% | 282,911 |
Independents | 1,305,330 | 33% | 430,758 |
Using the published reports, we can detect the linear trends and make a projection as to how the parties are currently tracking.
We capture the projections to October 27th, the last day a ballot can be requested, and find the following.
2020 NC VBM target to match 2016 | Currently on track for | Gap | |
---|---|---|---|
Democrats | 936,296 | 761,992 | -174,304 (Severely underperform) |
Republicans | 282,911 | 288,630 | +5,719 (Slightly Outperform) |
Independents | 430,758 | 513,106 | +82,348 (Well Outperform) |
In short:
The above models were using optimistic assumptions - that only 50% of Democrats intend to vote by mail (polls indicate closer to 55%), whereas 18% of Republicans intend to VBM (recent polling shows this number can be as low as 11%).
When these other factors are considered, Joe Biden is done maybe even 1984 done but if and only if Republicans can deliver on their Election Day and early voting GOTV efforts.
The media will be trumpeting the mail-in voting numbers as if they are portending a doomsday scenario for Trump. You can smile and know they are in for a nasty surprise on Election Night.
Stay on top of mail-in statistics. Have a model turnout in mind for each state and each district, and stay on top of any deviations or funny games.
Double down on GOTV efforts. Joe Bidens nightmare scenario can happen IF AND ONLY IF the Republicans match their 2016 turnout.
Communicate these news to supporters. The media will be attempting to demoralize Trump supporters with misleading statistics. Dont let them
Jeb Bush said something nice about Trump today. It’s definitely over.
https://twitter.com/JebBush/status/1305808628377681922?s=19
“This scenario disregards post election vote discovery. Thats how the Democrats expect to win. They plan on going from 400+ electoral votes for Trump on election night to less than the 270 needed by the end of the year.”
They have a shorter window than that - EC votes are cast on the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December. That will be the 14th. If they miss that deadline they aren’t supposed to get to vote. So all the cheating has to happen before that deadline. It will be hard as they won’t even know how many votes they need to steal right away and just manufacturing them willy-nilly will be risky.
The democrats love the early voting by mail since, they know they have the votes in their pocket early and there is less work for them on election day, while the republicans exude intense effort on election day to make up the difference. Trump will wake up on election day way behind, just like in 2016, since Republicans like to vote on election day.
This is why democrats are favoring limiting voting precincts to cause confusion and chaos on election day. They are using Covid as an excuse.
Analysis of this year primaries had one great surprise, which nobody expected and for some reason has not been reported in any major media (inside info).
Lot of Democrats voting early, Republicans showed at the polls the last day!
Apparently the Republicans are afraid that the mail-in vote will be corrupted (yes), while Democrats are afraid to show up at the polls (coronavirus?). So disregard media spinning early vote results. Vote! At the poll station! Do not miss it.
Absentee voting by mail/early voting is when a voter requests a ballot via mail. There is a record of your request with your signature and you mail it back in. Your signature is verified with your voter registration and then tallied. This is how absentee voting/early voting by mail has been done for probably 100 years. Trump has endorsed this as being legitimate.
Vote by mail is the real concern. This is when ballots are sent out with no control. This is when a household gets 5 ballots with only two people residing there since anyone who has lived there will also get a ballot - similar to junk mail. You can vote and just mail it in using a fake name or using your neighbor's name. Many states have said that they do not want to or can't verify these signatures since they don't have the manpower to verify all these ballots. This is where all the fraud will take place. It is going to lead to all kinds of chaos and the dems are hoping that if Trump wins, will cast the election as illegitimate. If a state is close, these ballots will all be suspect and the lawsuits and haggling over them will make Florida in 2000 appear to be child's play.
The only solution is for Trump's win be so profound, so deep, so big, that no one can call the election as fake and these mail in ballots become irrelevant. That is a tall order and probably won't happen, but we can hope.
“Biden needs a massive wave to vote by mail to win the election, and they just arent there.”
How so? Isn’t the Dems’ key to stealing this election is state election officials declaring “not until every last vote is counted!!” for weeks on end and cars pulling up with boxes full of mail in ballots for Biden, “look what we found!!!”
Postmarks? We don’ need no steenking postmarks.
Tell me I’m wrong. Please.
It’s a take. We’re not going to know until afterwards. Some SWAGs will turn out right, but unrepeatable.
I live in Oregon, a vote by mail state. They do not send ballots out to everyone. Our ballots are verified by signatures, if you forget to sign your return envelope it gets set aside and I’ve had my signature challenged and had to provide a new signature card.
Now you can even check online to see if your returned ballot has been received. I prefer the paper ballots of VBM to electronic voting machines in person.
Of course it has taken decades to fine tune it and I am deeply suspicious of the urban counties because they are always chaotic by dint of volume and the incompetence that government employment seems to encourage.
States that try to jump into VBM for a major general election are just going to end up with endless counting and litigation.
They are already open
I wonder if the polls will be closed because of The Plague.
Well done! Methos8 had the spreadsheet btw. That’s what we tracked in 2016. Speedyintexas might know about this also.
I think the DNC has already cast a mail in vote on behalf of every registered Democrat in the country, whether the voter knows it or not. Let them forget to mail their ballot, Tom Perez has already voted for them.
When they say Joe will be found to be the landslide winner after ALL the mail in votes have been counted, they mean it. They have those votes ready to go. They just have to be “found” in somebody’s car trunk.
Polls ae not news....Total BS
>>>North Carolina is generally a RED State<<<
Try Purple, turning Blue. Too many Yankees have moved in.
“Not convulted.
Democrats are too scared by COVID-19 to vote in person, thus, they must have big vote by mail numbers.”
To my simple mind, it IS convoluted. How can the option to mail a ballot not be more convenient and less threatening? I don’t get it. Then, layer on the fraud potential, and it is not clear at all how this benefits Trump.
I hope I’m wrong.
any updates?
Ill update this particular post next week. Not much change but I am seeing an acceleration in independents. At their current pace, they will make up more VBM as a percent of 2016 than Democrats.
Im going to do a deeper dive and focus exclusively on the Independents. Unlike in 2016 where there was a clearer ideology in favor of Trump, I dont have a strong feel for these particular Is or why they seem more motivated than Ds.
“The trends simply are not there to get them where they need to be.”
We agree on the “not getting there.” The part I don’t understand is how a boatload of mailed in votes will help Trump. Those votes will be coming from, in many instances, places that don’t exist AND those who don’t show up to vote for Biden will simply mail in a ballot for him.
How does that help Trump?
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