[LS]

Here’s what I factored in:

*Student shortfall due to 100% closed campuses in all U Cal, Cal State, Pomonoa, Harvard, Princeton, Michigan State, and many other universities, combined with only 50% open campuses at almost all other locations, should see a 30% decrease in student voting. That’s 1 to 1.5m NON voters from 2018 when students voted at a 40% rate.

*Most polls have Trump at 15-25% approval. I figure this is an actual VOTE for Trump of 12-13% but a STAY AT HOME of another 5-8%.

This translates to 3-4 million more votes that Biteme won’t get. Trump will get 2 million of them. That brings Biteme down by 4 to 5.5 MILLION just in those two categories, before you get a single vote switcher.

*In NC, FL, PA, IA, NH, NM, and NV you have had substantial (sometimes astounding) voter registration shifts. In 2012 FL had nearly a +1m D advantage. It’s down to 160,000 and falling. Ravi thinks it could be close to even on election day. Same thing in NC. It’s over 100,000 net GOP gain in PA.

Once these are factored in Murphy’s law says Trump will win the popular vote and it shouldn’t be close.

[Songcraft]

Okay, sounds good to me!        :-)

(Your initial tweet -- reposted in this thread -- and your response here, really are very hope-inspiring to me, in these crazy, difficult days.   Thanks!)

[Texan]

Can we look forward to your updates on election night, please?

[lasereye]

You don’t address some allegedly negative trends for Trump. He is said to have lost some white senior voters because of Coronavirus. There is allegedly declining support among white suburban women. Are those real? They can potentially cancel out the positive factors.

[Keflavik76]

*Student shortfall due to 100% closed campuses
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That's a good point about the college kids. Remember voting back in 2012 and seeing a college kid attempt to vote and getting mad when his address didn't match his voting records. He acted like the poll workers were trying to stop him from voting and they just wanted him to fill out some forms. It seem obvious to me that the local college student activists send him on a mission for Obama.

I don't remember hearing or reading that 60 sitting senators or 300 House members are to be indicted by "Bull" Durham. Think I know where your getting that from but really, you won't find it; like you say nothing. You should try to be a little more up beat.

[Trump Girl Kit Cat]

LS you pulled me off the ledge several times in 2016 I am however very worried about this mail in BS and send out unrequested ballots to EVERYONE!! Our voter rolls in CA. probably haven’t been cleaned up in decades ballots will be EVERYWHERE!!