Posted on 12/01/2021 6:34:05 AM PST by blam
The final College Football Playoff rankings will be announced Sunday.
The 2021 college football season has been filled with unexpected upsets and coaching moves, but the playoff picture has come into focus. With conference championship week here, there are several intriguing playoff scenarios.
Four conference championship games will help clear up that picture. Here are the games to watch:
◾Big 12: Oklahoma State vs. Baylor, 12 p.m. (ABC)
◾SEC: Alabama vs. Georgia, 4 p.m. (CBS)
◾AAC: Houston vs. Cincinnati, 4 p.m. (ABC)
◾Big Ten: Iowa vs. Michigan, 8 p.m. (FOX)
MORE: Picks against the spread for Championship Week
Those games will help the puzzle pieces fit. Here is a look at the various scenarios that could unfold based on the results:
College Football Playoff scenarios
Playoff scenario No. 1: Chalk wins out
— Oklahoma State beats Baylor
— Georgia beats Alabama
— Cincinnati beats Houston
— Michigan beats Iowa
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (12-1)
3. Cincinnati (13-0)
4. Oklahoma State (12-1), Notre Dame (11-1) or Alabama (11-2)
In this scenario, we think two-loss Alabama drops out of the discussion. Oklahoma State could take this spot given the Cowboys would have back-to-back wins against top-10 opponents the last two weeks and a conference championship. Notre Dame would be considered here too based on strong play since the loss to Cincinnati. Would Brian Kelly’s decision to leave for LSU be part of this decision? It shouldn’t be, but the CFP committee dropped a hint by putting the Cowboys ahead of the Irish this week.
MORE: Brian Kelly will not coach ND if it reaches playoff
Playoff scenario No. 2: Made-for-TV playoff
— Baylor beats Oklahoma State
— Alabama beats Georgia
— Houston beats Cincinnati
— Michigan beats Iowa
1. Alabama (12-1)
2. Michigan (12-1)
3. Georgia (12-1)
4. Notre Dame (11-1)
Can you imagine? The conference championships create chaos that knocks out the Cowboys and Bearcats. Alabama wins, and gets Notre Dame in a rematch of last year’s semifinal matchup against an interim coach. Michigan takes on Georgia in a battle between two blue-bloods looking to end prolonged national championship droughts. These are four of the top revenue-producing schools. Ratings would be huge, but who coaches the Irish?
MORE: Updated college football playoff rankings
Playoff scenario No. 3: Bama wins by a little
—Oklahoma State beats Baylor
—Alabama beats Georgia
—Cincinnati beats Houston
—Michigan beats Iowa
1. Alabama (12-1)
2. Michigan (12-1)
3. Georgia (12-1)
4. Cincinnati (13-0) or Oklahoma State (12-1)
It’s the same board. Alabama, Michigan and Georgia would be locks, and Cincinnati fans would have to sweat out getting bumped by Oklahoma State. We still think the Bearcats hold their spot, and you get the David vs. Goliath angle with the Crimson Tide vs. Bearcats.
Playoff scenario No. 4: Bama wins by a lot
— Oklahoma State beats Baylor
— Alabama beats Georgia
— Cincinnati beats Houston
— Michigan beats Iowa
1. Alabama (12-1)
2. Michigan (12-1)
3. Cincinnati (13-0)
4. Oklahoma State (12-1), Georgia (12-1) or Notre Dame (11-1)
Let’s say Alabama beats Georgia in one of those patented SEC championship blowouts, like a 38-7 destruction. As unlikely as that is, it could knock the Bulldogs out if Oklahoma State is impressive in the Big 12 championship. Georgia’s resume is not exactly loaded with quality wins. Kentucky (9-3) and Clemson (9-3) are the best opponents it has faced. It at minimum creates a huge debate for that fourth spot.
Playoff scenario No. 5: Big 12 upsetM/B>
— Baylor beats Oklahoma State
— Georgia beats Alabama
— Cincinnati beats Houston
— Michigan beats Iowa
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (12-1)
3. Cincinnati (13-0)
4. Notre Dame (11-1) or Alabama (11-2)
This would leave the Big 12, Pac-12 and ACC out of the CFP. That’s two-thirds of the Alliance and a Power 5 conference that is losing Oklahoma and Texas. Giving the fourth playoff spot to an independent or two-loss SEC team would only make those calls the loudest.
Would the committee take the rematch with Alabama? It might if the SEC championship game is an instant classic. The Irish, even without Brian Kelly, are the better bet here.
MORE: Bowl projections include Georgia-Michigan title game
Playoff scenario No. 6: UC loses
— Oklahoma State beats Baylor
— Georgia beats Alabama
— Houston beats Cincinnati
— Michigan beats Iowa
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (12-1)
3. Oklahoma State (12-1), Notre Dame (11-1) or Alabama (11-2)
4. Oklahoma State (12-1), Notre Dame (11-1) or Alabama (11-2)
Take that, Group of 5. That would leave two open spots for Oklahoma State, Notre Dame and, yes, Alabama. The Cowboys would likely take the No. 3 spot in this scenario, and Notre Dame would slip in for a matchup with Georgia.
Playoff scenario No. 7: Michigan (and the Alliance) loses
— Oklahoma State beats Baylor
— Georgia beats Alabama
— Cincinnati beats Houston
— Iowa beats Michigan
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Cincinnati (13-0)
3. Oklahoma State (12-1), Notre Dame (11-1), Iowa (11-2) or Alabama (11-2)
4. Oklahoma State (12-1), Notre Dame (11-1), Iowa (11-2) or Alabama (11-2)
Who wants a two-loss Hawkeyes team in the CFP? Iowa is ranked No. 13, so that would be a monstrous leap. We still think the Cowboys and Irish would be the teams here, but this scenario is leaving out the Big Ten, ACC and Pac-12. Remember, Iowa athletic director Gary Barta is the committee chairman.
Playoff scenario No. 8: SEC and Big Ten upheaval
— Oklahoma State beats Baylor
— Alabama beats Georgia
— Cincinnati beats Houston
—I owa beats Michigan
1. Alabama (12-1)
2. Cincinnati (13-0)
3. Georgia (12-1)
4. Oklahoma State (12-1) or Notre Dame (11-1)
We’re back to the Oklahoma State-Notre Dame debate here, and most of these scenarios turn that debate out. The Georgia-Cincinnati rematch would be fun with the Bearcats as the higher seed.
Playoff scenario No. 9: We want an 8-team playoff now!
— Baylor beats Oklahoma State
— Alabama beats Georgia
— Cincinnati beats Houston
— Iowa beats Michigan
1. Alabama (12-1)
2. Georgia (12-1)
3. Cincinnati (13-0)
4. Notre Dame (11-1)
In this scenario, Cincinnati could theoretically lose and still get in based on the head-to-head victory against Notre Dame. But the problem is here is four Power 5 conferences are left out. The champions would be all two- or three-loss teams in Iowa (11-2), Wake Forest/Pitt (11-2), Oregon (11-2) or Utah (10-3) and Baylor (11-2).
Playoff scenario No. 10: WTH just happened
— Baylor beats Oklahoma State
— Georgia beats Alabama
— Houston beats Cincinnati
— Iowa beats Michigan
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Notre Dame (11-1)
3. Baylor (11-2)
4. Iowa (11-2), Cincinnati (12-1), Alabama (11-2), Wake Forest or Pitt (11-2), Oregon (11-2)
This actually is the craziest scenario of all because it would create a three-vacancy scramble. Notre Dame could jump all the way to No. 2 because the Bearcats would not have a conference championship with a Group of 5 schedule. We’re pretty sure Baylor would snap up the No. 3 spot, but just look at the potential mess under them.
This is the only way the ACC and Pac-12 can get involved in the final discussion, too. How would the committee stack up that mess? They would likely take Iowa, the Big Ten champion. So who’s ready for Georgia-Iowa and Notre Dame-Baylor?
Alabama Could Become College Football Playoffs’ Biggest Headache
2021 Highest-Paid NCAA Football Coach & Their Salaries
* Nick Saban, Alabama: $9.1 million
* Ed Orgeron, LSU: $8.7 million
* Dabo Swinney, Clemson: $8.3 million
* Jimbo Fisher, Texas A & M: $7.5 million
* Gus Malzahn, Auburn: $6.9 million
* Kirby Smart, Georgia: $6.8 million
* James Franklin, Penn State: $6.7 million
(snip)
(Go to the site for more coch salaries)
Until there is a Championship of League Champions it is nothing but fantasy football.
I think #7 may be the most likely. Michigan players are STILL partying. OSU couldn’t stop the run. The Hawkeyes can. PLus, the forecast calls for good weather at Lucas Field. ;-)
I also believe in Conspiracies... so, #2 is probably what will happen.
◾Big 12: Oklahoma State vs. Baylor, 12 p.m. (ABC)
◾SEC: Alabama vs. Georgia, 4 p.m. (CBS)
◾AAC: Houston vs. Cincinnati, 4 p.m. (ABC)
◾Big Ten: Iowa vs. Michigan, 8 p.m. (FOX)
Thanks for posting the times, and channels!
I have antenna TV option and I can enjoy all these games Saturday.
Sundays final 4 will be interesting to be sure.
My prediction: Ain’t nobody touching Georgia!
There are 130 FBS teams. 128 is 2^7.
Kick two teams out and you can have a 7 round single elimination tournament resulting in a single, undefeated champion. Maybe do in-conference consolation games to fill out the schedules of the losers.
No, I’m not being serious. But wouldn’t it be glorious…
No matter what happens the playoff committee will tweak the formula to ensure Alabama gets in.
You already have league championships which is the qualifying for a true championship.
GO POKES 🧡🖤
Mine too. However I still say:
- Roll Tide -
I don’t see any scenario where Georgia gets left out. And that’s coming from a broken hearted Clemson Tigers fan.
PING-A-LING
Go DAWGS!! Good boy UGA!!! GRRRRUFFFF GRRRRUFFF GRRRRUFFF!!
BTW- I must have missed something- when did Brian Kelly go to LSU???
My humble opinion.
If Alabama loses: If viewed as a reward for playing tough competitors, it may make sense to honor Alabama with a playoff spot. But if we’re trying to find out who the best team is, what sense is there in setting up another Alabama vs Georgia game? Georgia will have already proven itself the best SEC team. Don’t waste the spot that Oklahoma or Notre Dame could use to establish themselves.
I THINK the SEC is the toughest conference. But with each team playing only one non-conference game against a real opponent, it’s hard to KNOW that. That’s the whole point of these bowl games, isn’t it?
You can’t keep an undefeated Cincinnati out, to give make room for defeated teams, especially a twice-defeated team. It MAY be true that Cincinnati is NOT one of the top four teams, but we’ll never KNOW unless they get in. Nor will we know that they are NOT the best team in the country.
Right now, Georgia, Michigan, Alabama and Cincinnati have the best resumés. Notre Dame and Oklahoma State are right behind, but Oklahoma State can improve their resumé and Notre Dame can’t. Michigan, Cincinnati or Alabama can lose their spot to Oklahoma State or Notre Dame. If Michigan, Alabama, Cincinnati and Oklahoma State all win, someone gets screwed, I’d probably screw Georgia and send them to play Notre Dame, who would also be screwed. But that’s what happens when you have an undefeated team and five 1-loss teams with great schedules.
Michigan wins, Cincinnati wins, Georgia wins, Oklahoma State wins: Those 4 teams go in.
Michigan wins, Cinci wins, Georgia wins, Oklahoma State loses: Mich, Cinci, Ga and ND go in.
Michigan wins, Cinci wins, Georgia loses, Oklahoma State wins: Mich, Cinci, Okla State, Alabama in.
Michigan wins, Cinci wins, Georgia loses, Oklahoma State loses: Mich, Cinci, Alabama, Georgia or Notre Dame in. Probably Georgia.
Michigan wins, Cinci loses, Georgia wins, Oklahoma State wins: Mich, Georgia, OK St, Notre Dame in.
Michigan wins, Cinci loses, Georgia wins, Oklahoma State loses: Mich, Georgia, Alabama, ND in
Michigan wins, Cinci loses, Georgia loses, Oklahoma State wins: Mich, Okla St, Alabama, Georgia in. (Cinci’s loss will show ND’s loss isn’t so unforgivable.)
Michigan wins, Cinci loses, Georgia loses, Oklahoma State loses: Mich, Alabama, Georgia, Notre Dame in.
Michigan loses, Cincinnati wins, Georgia wins, Oklahoma State wins: Cinci, Georgia, Okla State, ND in.
Michigan loses, Cinci wins, Georgia wins, Oklahoma State loses: Cinci, Ga, Alabama, ND go in.
Michigan loses, Cinci wins, Georgia loses, Oklahoma State wins: Cinci, Okla State, Alabama, ND in.
Michigan loses, Cinci wins, Georgia loses, Oklahoma State loses: Georgia, Alabama, Cinci, ND in.
Michigan loses, Cinci loses, Georgia wins, Oklahoma State wins: Alabama, Georgia, OK St, Notre Dame in.
Michigan loses, Cinci loses, Georgia wins, Oklahoma State loses: Georgia, Alabama, ND in. And Baylor? See below.
Michigan loses, Cinci loses, Georgia loses, Oklahoma State wins: Okla St, Alabama, Georgia, ND in
Michigan loses, Cinci loses, Georgia loses, Oklahoma State loses: Alabama, Georgia, ND in. And Baylor? See below.
If Michigan, Cincinnati and Oklahoma State all lose, then the fourth spot is between one-loss Cincinnati and various two-loss teams. I could see Cincinnati deserving it, if its only loss of the season is a tough-played game against Houston... but then it would be hard to justify Cincinnati going over Houston. And then it would also be hard picking Oklahoma State over Baylor or Michigan over Iowa, so the question is which conference champion goes?
Houston’s conference isn’t good enough; we’re only talking Cincinnati because they’re undefeated. Seen as a conference, Iowa’s division is very weak: if they beat Michigan, it’d be their first over a currently ranked opponent. The Pac-12 and ACC champs will have had a weaker chance to prove themselves than Baylor or Iowa. So, I guess Baylor takes it. But I would note that even then, Mississippi’s losses will have been against better quality opponents.
I heard noise after the weekend and then it was confirmed by LSU yesterday.
Jumbo Package: Saban, Smart Show Mutual Respect Ahead Of SEC Championship
Georgia’s defense has played against four offenses currently in the top 50 in yards gained: Florida (12th), Tennessee (18th), Arkansas (30th) and Kentucky (45th).
Alabama’s defense ranks seventh among FBS teams in yards allowed per game (294.2) and 20th in points allowed per game (19.9). The only comparable defense Georgia has played is Clemson, which ranks ninth in yards allowed (308.4) and second in points allowed (15.0).
Alabama’s defense has played against six offenses currently in the top 50 in yards gained: Ole Miss (5th), Florida (12th), Tennessee (18th), Mississippi State (22nd), Miami (23rd) and Arkansas (30th).
You could also say that Alabama has played six offenses currently ranked in the top 30 while Georgia has played three. Lots of interesting stuff in there, but the points allowed stand out as the main difference between these teams. Alabama’s penchant for a couple of bonehead plays a game in the secondary explains being 7th in yards allowed but only 20th in scoring defense. We’ve said it a thousand times, but if they can play 60 minutes without a coverage bust, they can be as good as anyone in the country on defense.
Can they finally do it on Saturday?
Saban spoke with reporters as usual for a Monday.
— Saban said Georgia’s defense is No. 1 in the nation and that “speaks for itself.”
— Saban said Brian Robinson has a lower body pulled muscle. “We’ll kind of see how he progresses through the course of the week and see where he’s at,” Saban said.
— Saban said it is difficult to say how players physically will respond after a four-overtime Iron Bowl, and that both teams had to play Saturday. “These guys are young, so they got plenty of time to recover.”
If Trey Sanders ends up as the last man standing for the SEC Championship, may he have a moment. That kid has been through the ringer. I don’t know if the way the Iron Bowl went down is good or bad for Alabama’s psyche. They could be energized from it or emotionally drained. The entire press conference is embedded below.
Quick, a Hewitt-Trussville graduate, was a 2019 signee and an early commit when he pledged to the Tide on April 22, 2017. He rose as high as the No. 23 in the overall 2019 rankings in the 247Sports composite before arriving as the No. 40 prospect in the class.
Hate to see guys feel the need to leave, but all are understandable.
Mark Schlabach wonders if Alabama can block Georgia.
“I don’t know how you guys look at it, but that’s a really tough place to play — so is A&M,” Smart said. “That doesn’t fall on deaf ears with our staff, and [we] understand probably two of the hardest places to play in the country are right there. We haven’t been to A&M, but I’ve been to A&M, and we’ve always gone to Auburn. It’s a tough environment.”
Still, Alabama has allowed 35 sacks, 2.92 per game, which is tied for 108th in the FBS.
Bryce hasn’t helped with some of those sacks, as Saban also mentioned yesterday.
Last, this is a very bad Heisman take.
That the Iron Bowl was a struggle doesn’t change the bottom line: Alabama is in with a win against Georgia in the SEC championship game and very likely out with a loss. A victory would lock down the Heisman Trophy for Bryce Young, who had a defining moment in his late touchdown drive against the Tigers. A convincing Georgia win could open that race to Michigan defensive end Aidan Hutchinson.
Come on, now. Aidan Hutchinson? He of 54 tackles, 14.6 TFL and 12 sacks to Will Anderson’s 76, 25.5 and 13? Surely you jest.
That’s about it for now. Have a great day.
Roll Tide.
Anything but number 2. Sick of the same teams all the time. Looking forward to Cincy and hopefully Okie State for the change of pace.
Otherwise I’m probably not watching - TV ratings dream scenario can suck it.
I say if Baylor wins, they’re in!
Love to watch Iowa/Michigan, but our local HS is playing for state championship tonight at 7. Star player just signed with Cincinnati.
Boy O Boy what and ending. Baylor won.
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