Posted on 01/01/2023 7:45:22 AM PST by Diana in Wisconsin
At the end of every year, I ask other junior mining investors what they learned in the past year and what they are looking forward to in the new year. I'm not one for New Year's resolutions, however, I do believe that the turning of the page to a new year offers an opportunity for reflection and assessment.
What could I possibly say about 2022 that hasn’t been said already? If anything, 2022 has wiped away many illusions that people had about a variety of topics including the value of various cryptocurrencies, covid vaccines, and various trading strategies that revolved around making memes and HOLDing no matter what.
If 2022 was a year of wiping away illusions and exposing the massive amount of misinformation and blatant fraud out there, I predict that 2023 will be characterized by a return to the truth (in the form of real assets and sound money) and a renewed focus on mental health.
Many people I know are overworked, stressed out, and very few are truly happy with their lifestyles. I envision a trend of people purposely disconnecting from the matrix and relearning how to interact with other human beings face to face. Frankly, most people I come across on a daily basis are starving for real human interaction and they are becoming increasingly challenged at creating this sort of intimacy.
2020 and 2021 were largely characterized by impersonal interactions via Zoom meetings and social media. These years also saw a tidal wave of people who thought that they could quit their day jobs and make fortunes through cryptocurrencies, meme stocks, NFTs, and options day trading. At the end of 2022, the survival rate for these newcomers is probably less than 1%.
Personally, I know of several friends who were part of this crypto/Gamestop/memestonk frenzy. All of them have experienced roller coaster rides throughout 2020-2022 and eventually generated large trading losses that forced them to return to the workforce in the second half of 2022.
In a way, it’s sad to see so many people ‘fail’ at something that gave them so much hope. But the market is a cruel mistress, and I know of no other way to become a profitable market participant than to experience some epic failures early on in one's journey. Too many people suddenly woke up to an “everything bull market” in 2020/2021 and thought that stocks and cryptocurrencies only went up. However, the reality is something very different. 2022 has been a year of reality setting in and delivering a great deal of hard lessons in the process.
Less experienced market participants have a tremendous advantage relative to my generation (of 20 years ago) due to the massive amount of information that is available for free out there. However, with that firehose of information comes a great deal of noise, and often conflicting analysis/strategies/timeframes etc. The challenge is sifting through that noise while having the right mental approach to markets. Most newer market participants are working with a faulty mindset (mental operating system) and poor risk management. Two books that I have found priceless in my journey are Trading In The Zone and Hedge Fund Market Wizards.
Personally, my biggest lesson from 2022 is that a life wholly dedicated to a market P&L is an impoverished, unfulfilling existence. Stock prices, chart patterns, interest rates, and winning/losing streaks in trading are all transitory. When we attach our personal happiness and self worth to these transitory phenomena that are ‘outside’ of who we really are then we are destined to feel unfulfilled. Making a nice trade, or seeing an investment holding generate an outsized return are nice cherries on top of an already fulfilling life that includes a healthy lifestyle, loving family and friends, and a desire to give to others.
Markets cannot fulfill you. Only you can do that.
I don’t have any profound market forecasts for 2023 other than to say I believe the US dollar price of gold will make a new all-time high at some point in the next year. As global central banks grapple with trying to engineer a soft landing while staring in the rearview mirror, I believe market volatility will continue to remain elevated throughout 2023. Entering 2023, it seems that most investors are too pessimistic, however, considering the insane euphoria and excesses that permeated markets throughout 2021 it feels like this period of extended pessimism is part of the healing process and could stick around for a while longer.
This gives me some optimism that 2023 will be a better year than 2022 (Yes, my tongue is in my cheek as I write those words).
Bottom left quadrant is good, correct?
The world has to be reorganized the Conservatives sucked into Ukraine and Taiwan to help the Globalists hurt Russia and China.
Climate Change the sucker issue for Progressives behind the curtain Global Banking and Business reorganizing the world economy for a “New World Order” to control contain China.
The “Deep State” lies and propaganda running amok even being used for election rigging here in the USA.
“In a way, it’s sad to see so many people ‘fail’ at something that gave them so much hope. But the market is a cruel mistress, and I know of no other way to become a profitable market participant than to experience some epic failures early on in one’s journey. Too many people suddenly woke up to an “everything bull market” in 2020/2021 and thought that stocks and cryptocurrencies only went up. However, the reality is something very different. 2022 has been a year of reality setting in and delivering a great deal of hard lessons in the process.”
In a way this reminds me of the story of the high level investor getting his shoes shined. The shoe shiner mentioned stocks he was invested in. The man left and sold his stocks since he knew they were overvalued as a shoe shiner was investing.
By the time average people get into something, it’s likely near time to run away.
2023 is only going to get worse. Like Pedo Joe says, “Butt Building Butter Back Better! Snort!”
“..Bottom left quadrant is good, correct?...”
Yeah. And be sure to thank your local democrat(s) when ya see em. /s
Per climate change, the financial BS term is ESG.
A shell game pure bait and switch to make people feel good while the economy overall goes to *hit.
Agreed. I thought I was in Hunker Down Mode during the 0baman Reign of Error. We ain’t seen nothing, yet.
I’m not even reading my IRA statements. I’ll want to put a bullet in my head.
Inflation is THEFT! Taxation is THEFT! Mother Government is one evil beotch!
Yep.
I expect this year to be future textbook chapter bad...
Okay, but 1929 must also have s****d too.
Nothing wrong with destroying Russia and China.
We’ll have nothing and be happy. I’m having trouble with the second part.
It would be interesting to show in the chart the year after the years in the lower left quadrant.
What year did bonds do >40% ?
The bottom left quadrant shows a massively profitable year for people who were short almost anything. It also shows that there was high conviction and consensus in selling short with little fear of getting blown out of your position.
My sense is that most large positions are determined by quants and AI algorithms that are sensitive to the same variables. The highest weighted is the cost of money, and when the Fed began tightening, the swarm responded to Hal’s projections of an imminent economic collapse. Unfortunately, the Fed (like Hal) is operating using faulty logic (at least according to Jeremy Segal from the Wharton School) based on obsolete lagging indicators of inflation.
Once the short institutions realize that Hal is flakey, they will swarm to unwind their short positions creating a massive mean regression spike.
People with cash, especially new investors should be ready for the opportunity of a lifetime.
And that was deliberate.
Same here and I expect when recesson is finally declared things will only get worse. The further ill effects of green crap and taxes have not factored fully yet. When that happens worse again.
I have sworn not to harvest any meat and rely on dividends and bonds but it will make for slim pickings. Likely we will test minimum spend in coming years. I think i am prepped for another four years of it.
Wild flower seeds are not too much so that will be gardening this season.
They feed your fantasy about such a thing happening but it’s not destruction of those countries the Globalists want with their drama over Ukraine and Taiwan.
They are seeking compliance with the World Order from those nations.
We must all decide whether that World Order is best for us and not be distracted by emotional feelings about China and Russia over the wrongs they may or may not have done.
I see the NWO as being like the Holy Roman Empire: useful at times but mostly a clunky nuisance claiming a higher level of authority than they have. If Russia and China are reduced to vassal states so be it.
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