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The market is anticipating the Fed’s first cut on March 20th, with a 63.4% probability, signaling a slowing economy and potential crisis.
Citizen Watch Report ^

Posted on 12/04/2023 10:54:26 AM PST by davikkm

Be careful what you wish for, as the looming rate cut anticipated at the Fed’s March 20th meeting might not bring the desired outcome. History suggests that the first cut often aligns with a market decline, typically indicative of a slowing economy or crisis.

Concerns are surfacing, especially in California, where tax receipts have plummeted by 25%, raising questions about an impending recession. The Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) report indicates a downturn in 2022, supported by the triggering of the Sahm Rule, even though applying it to states sparks controversy.

(Excerpt) Read more at citizenwatchreport.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government
KEYWORDS: crisis; economy; fed; fedrate; interest; ratecut; slowingeconomy; stockmarket

1 posted on 12/04/2023 10:54:26 AM PST by davikkm
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To: davikkm

They are putting out the fire with gasoline..................


2 posted on 12/04/2023 10:57:15 AM PST by Red Badger (Homeless veterans camp in the streets while illegal aliens are put up in hotels.....................)
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To: davikkm

crisis

CRISIS!


3 posted on 12/04/2023 10:57:50 AM PST by Fury
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To: davikkm

We need more inflation.


4 posted on 12/04/2023 11:00:33 AM PST by cp124 (80% of everything is fake or a lie.)
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To: davikkm

Whistling past the graveyard. Wishful hoping about a rate cut that I do not believe is going to happen. More likely another hike.


5 posted on 12/04/2023 11:01:42 AM PST by wetgundog
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To: davikkm

Easy fix.

Print more dollars. Ten trillion ought to do it, for starters.


6 posted on 12/04/2023 11:02:17 AM PST by lurk (u)
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To: davikkm

2024-2025 will be ugly.


7 posted on 12/04/2023 11:05:35 AM PST by laplata (They want each crisis to take the greatest toll possible.)
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To: davikkm

I was actually looking at the Sahm Rule’s historical data yesterday, and found that it usually triggers 3-4 months after a recession has already started.


8 posted on 12/04/2023 11:10:10 AM PST by guitar Josh
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To: wetgundog
Wishful hoping about a rate cut that I do not believe is going to happen. More likely another hike.

Most likely, it stays the same.

9 posted on 12/04/2023 11:16:24 AM PST by 1Old Pro
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To: davikkm

The Fed needs a rate cut to contain rising Fed debt servicing costs, which will top one trillion dollars this fiscal year.


10 posted on 12/04/2023 11:19:42 AM PST by kabar
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To: davikkm

The run up of the stock market in 2023 is eerily similar to what happened in 1929. Despite inherent weaknesses in the economy stocks through most of 1929 rose steadily until the collapse. The stock market in 2023 has defied economic realities. Despite enormous government and consumer debt, inflation,banking instability, money printing and policies designed to stall and even sabotage economic growth and production, stocks have risen. Fear what is coming in 2024 will make 1930 look tame. Then a conservative government was replaced by quasi socialists. In 2024 suspect the current socialist government will be replaced by conservative American patriots. Economic recovery however will not come easily.


11 posted on 12/04/2023 11:23:18 AM PST by allendale
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To: davikkm

The run up of the stock market in 2023 is eerily similar to what happened in 1929. Despite inherent weaknesses in the economy stocks through most of 1929 rose steadily until the collapse. The stock market in 2023 has defied economic realities. Despite enormous government and consumer debt, inflation,banking instability, money printing and policies designed to stall and even sabotage economic growth and production, stocks have risen. Fear what is coming in 2024 will make 1930 look tame. Then a conservative government was replaced by quasi socialists. In 2024 suspect the current socialist government will be replaced by conservative American patriots. Economic recovery however will not come easily.


12 posted on 12/04/2023 11:23:18 AM PST by allendale
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To: davikkm

It’s an election year would you expect any thing different. Give the economy another hit of meth.


13 posted on 12/04/2023 11:38:58 AM PST by MCF (If my home can't be my Castle, then it will be my Alamo)
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To: kabar

Fed needs a rate cut to contain rising Fed debt servicing costs, which will top one trillion dollars this fiscal year.
———
Put in a simple way- we are paying close to $1 Trillion a year in interest payments for n our debt. Madness….and rate cuts will not stop supply side inflation. Any sane economist realizes we are in a box, no way out without ALOT of financial pain…..default is predicted by many in the financial field.


14 posted on 12/04/2023 12:00:25 PM PST by delta7
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To: wetgundog

Agreed. I think the next Fed move is another rate hike by the end of 2024 Q1. No cut will happen until something breaks, like the stock market. That will open the floodgates from the Fed for the last round of money printing in the trillions. All assets (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, oil) will have a blow-off top in response. That will be followed by a sharp increase in interest rates and a severe, multi-year depression.


15 posted on 12/04/2023 12:33:03 PM PST by Prince Caspian
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To: davikkm

After 17 months of the central bank tightening, the cheap money pimps want rate cuts.

However, Powell’s hearing aids went “belly up” & he can’t hear them at the moment.


16 posted on 12/04/2023 12:57:51 PM PST by unclebankster ( Globalism is the last refuge of a scoundrel.)
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To: unclebankster

The USG needs lower interest rates to reduce debt servicing costs. 40% of the total revenue from income taxes are needed to pay just debt servicing costs.


17 posted on 12/04/2023 1:38:49 PM PST by kabar
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To: davikkm

Rates go down: bad
Rates go up: bad


18 posted on 12/04/2023 2:40:58 PM PST by dynachrome (War does not determine who is right, but who is left.)
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To: davikkm

If the Fed reduces the rate, how will it sell the $1.6 Trillions in Bonds?


19 posted on 12/10/2023 6:01:51 PM PST by Chgogal (Welcome to Fuhrer Biden's Weaponized Fascist Banana Republic! It's the road to hell)
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