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Influential investor says US inflation and growth are not at levels where interest rates can fall Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour. https://www.ft.com/content/680c17d1-0d55-4697-aff8-7dcca8c06679?accessToken=zwAGFb2KHEZYkc9oDBfRDVVGl9Ov-H3MqMBmeQ.MEUCIEKUOo8tpYNQH1TIRs1UXW0onmSrH2MkZ28gZyBrU5T-AiEAledOG31n_SXP-FsEVXres7m4-IDthSiN4Xyky3Mv9yQ&sharetype=gift&token=c10df47e-f8fc-4ea2-a059-1720789b4224 Persistent inflation and hot US growth have left the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting hopes “off track”, Bridgewater’s Bob Prince said on Tuesday, adding...

U.S. inflation pressures quickened again last month, with core price pressures also rising past Wall Street forecasts, a reading that will cast further doubt on market bets for a June interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve. The headline consumer price index for March was pegged by the Commerce Department at 3.5%, rising from the prior month's tally of 3.2% and coming in ahead of Wall Street's 3.4% consensus forecast. On a monthly basis, inflation edged 0.4% higher, matching the 0.4% gain in February but also coming in ahead of Wall Street's 0.3% forecast. So-called core inflation, which strips out...

Happy Easter! I mean Happy TRADITIONAL Easter, not a Biden weird trans celebration. Biden and Congress (Schumer, Johnson, McConnell, etc) spend and borrow like its cottage cheese. After hitting $1 trillion in late 2023, interest expense on US debt rose to a record $1.1 trillion in late March, and ii) while US debt is now rising at a pace of $1 trillion every 3 months, US interest expense is rising at a just as torrid $100 billion every 4 months (this interval will also shrink to three months very soon). he Biggest Picture: $1.1tn in interest payments on US government...

Holders of commercial real estate (CRE) debt are riding the tiger. Meaning that if interest rates don’t come down, there will be a lot of pain and suffering. “We’re far from neutral now,” said America’s Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, to the Senate Banking Committee. As The Fed moves closer to cutting rates. All those rent-seekers stacked up with commercial real estate holdings nodded in violent agreement. That of course includes the nation’s regional banks, which continue to succumb to the power of their systemically important rivals, now so big that they cannot possibly be allowed to fail. Sometimes neutral rates...

The debt load of the U.S. is growing at a quicker clip in recent months, increasing about $1 trillion nearly every 100 days. The nation’s debt permanently crossed over to $34 trillion on Jan. 4, after briefly crossing the mark on Dec. 29, according to data from the U.S. Department of the Treasury. It reached $33 trillion on Sept. 15, 2023, and $32 trillion on June 15, 2023, hitting this accelerated pace. Before that, the $1 trillion move higher from $31 trillion took about eight months. U.S. debt, which is the amount of money the federal government borrows to cover...

The average annual percentage rate (APR) on credit cards nearly doubled to 22.8 percent in 2023 from 12.9 percent in 2013, costing consumers around $25 billion in interest fees last year, according to a new analysis by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). The average APR hit the highest level on record at the end of last year, according to the bureau’s analysis of data from the Federal Reserve, which started tracking it in 1994. The surge in the overall average APR comes as credit card debt has hit an all time high. U.S. credit card debt topped $1.1 trillion...

The Federal Reserve (aka, The Keep) is back in the saddle again. The Fed has been unable to control inflation since Federal government spending was so fast and furious after Covid that little thought was given to the long-term ramifications of insane spending. Example? Home price growth is rising again. Home prices in traditional “bubble cities” out west were cooling, but are reaccelerating. Even Detroit and Cleveland are seeing rapid home price acceleration. In retrospect, this wholesale dovish euphoria may have been rather short sighted, because after several strong economist reports hit the tape (with the Nov 2024 election growing...

A wave of inflationary signals means that the Federal Reserve's next move could be a rate hike, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said. "There's a meaningful chance, maybe it's 15%, that the next move is going to be upwards in rates, not downwards," Summers said during an interview on Bloomberg TV on Friday, adding that the Fed has to be "very careful." His read on recent key inflation indicators in January, including a 3.1% year-over-year increase in the consumer price index and a 0.9% rise in the producer price index, formed the basis of his rationale. He added that the...

Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) brushed off the idea of throwing his name in the ring to lead the Republican National Committee (RNC) as it seeks to regroup following several challenging election cycles. “No, no, no,” McCarthy told reporters Thursday night, waving his hand, when asked about the possible role by NBC’s Vaughn Hillyard. CAMPAIGN McCarthy says he has no interest in leading RNC BY ELIZABETH CRISP - 02/09/24 9:34 AM ET SHARE TWEET Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., speaks to the media after a Republican conference meeting at the Capitol in Washington, Thursday, Oct. 19, 2023. (AP Photo/J. Scott...

The Fed had better think twice about expected rate cuts. The market just isn’t feeling it. Treasury yields rose Wednesday, with the 10-year yield touching almost 4.10% as investors focused on stronger-than-expected December retail sales and the latest remarks from Federal Reserve members. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was recently up 4 basis points at 4.108% after briefly getting to 4.117%, the highest since Dec. 13. The 2-year Treasury yield rose by around 11 basis points to trade at 4.335%. December’s retail sales data indicated strong consumer demand at the holidays. Retail sales increased 0.6% for the month,...

The Federal Reserve quietly lost a fortune in 2023 as interest it pays out to banks swamped the interest it earns on its bond portfolio, data released by the central bank Friday showed. The Fed said it lost roughly $114.3 billion in 2023, its largest-ever annual loss. The losses occurred because the money the Fed pays banks for reserves held at the central bank exceeded the interest earned on the mortgage bonds it holds. The Fed has been raising the interest rate paid on reserves alongside the hikes on the benchmark federal funds rate to stem the worst inflation in...

As 2024 unfolds, ominous signs loom over the economic horizon, with the Druckenmiller Recession Indicator delivering a stark warning. Plummeting to its lowest level since 1999, this indicator, historically associated with economic downturns, is flashing red, raising concerns about the state of the economy. Leading economic indicators have endured a daunting streak, falling for 20 consecutive months. While many have clung to the belief in a recession-proof economy, the latest ISM data paints a different picture. A mere 5.6% of purchasing managers report any growth, mirroring statistics not seen since April 2009.

Trump Predicts the Fed Will Lower Rates to Help Democrats We also were keen to ask Trump if he thinks the Federal Reserve and Chairman Jerome Powell will cut interest rates specifically to help Joe Biden (or another Democrat) win the general election. The former President said he does think that is how things will play out. "Yeah, I think they will,” he said, before taking a light dig at Powell. “I was never a big fan of this guy,” Trump told us, before casually pointing the finger at his own Treasury Secretary. “Steve Mnuchin recommended him, but I was...

(NEXSTAR) — As millions of Americans are preparing to gather for the holidays, health officials are warning of a new COVID-19 variant sweeping the country. The World Health Organization (WHO) said Tuesday it was classifying the COVID variant JN.1 as a variant of interest. Here are 5 things you should know about the new variant of interest.

Buyers with negative equity on their loans owe more than $6,000 ... Car-loan borrowers are under pressure as interest rates climb and the value of their vehicles tumble. And things are getting worse for those who owe more than their cars are worth. Car buyers with so-called negative equity were underwater by an average of $6,054 in November, the highest figure since April 2020, ... Average negative equity was $5,300 in 2019. “We're in this situation where combined with the cost of the vehicles being so high and the interest rates being so historically high, you have a lot of...

In a distressing revelation, the Federal Reserve anticipates three rate cuts next year, acknowledging the challenge posed by persistent inflation. The economic engine falters as demand plummets for homes, vehicles, and goods, painting a grim picture of financial distress among Americans. Once deemed a lifeline, credit cards are now avoided, sinking below pre-pandemic levels. Soaring default rates further darken the economic landscape. Powell’s unexpected dovish shift marks a stark departure from his recent hawkish stance, signaling an alarming shift. The Fed’s surrender to inflation raises concerns, leaving a trail of confusion and uncertainty.

Be careful what you wish for, as the looming rate cut anticipated at the Fed’s March 20th meeting might not bring the desired outcome. History suggests that the first cut often aligns with a market decline, typically indicative of a slowing economy or crisis. Concerns are surfacing, especially in California, where tax receipts have plummeted by 25%, raising questions about an impending recession. The Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) report indicates a downturn in 2022, supported by the triggering of the Sahm Rule, even though applying it to states sparks controversy.

The Internal Revenue Service penalty for tax underpayments has nearly tripled since 2021, putting gig economy workers and consultants at the largest risk of having to cough up big bucks to Uncle Sam. As of Oct. 1, the IRS will now charge 8% interest on estimated tax underpayments, up from 3% two years ago, according to The Wall Street Journal.

On Monday’s broadcast of CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen acknowledged that we do need to have a fiscally responsible path, especially since “the higher interest rate environment does pose additional challenges” but we don’t need offsets for Israel and Ukraine spending since they are emergency spending. After Yellen pushed for the aid package proposed by the Biden administration for Israel and Ukraine, co-host Andrew Ross Sorkin asked, “[W]e are having our debt and deficit go up and up and up and up and up. We had Stan Druckenmiller on our program recently. He said, we are spending like...

Estimated annualized interest payments on the US government debt pile climbed past $1 trillion at the end of last month, Bloomberg analysis shows. That amount has doubled in the past 19 months, and is equivalent to 15.9% of the entire Federal budget for fiscal year 2022. The figures are calculated using US Treasury data which state the government’s monthly outstanding debt balances and the average interest it pays. The worsening metrics may reignite debate about the US fiscal path amid heavy borrowing from Washington. That dynamic has already helped drive up bond yields, threatened the return of the so-called bond...