Posted on 02/16/2024 1:31:24 PM PST by RomanSoldier19
A wave of inflationary signals means that the Federal Reserve's next move could be a rate hike, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said.
"There's a meaningful chance, maybe it's 15%, that the next move is going to be upwards in rates, not downwards," Summers said during an interview on Bloomberg TV on Friday, adding that the Fed has to be "very careful."
His read on recent key inflation indicators in January, including a 3.1% year-over-year increase in the consumer price index and a 0.9% rise in the producer price index, formed the basis of his rationale. He added that the "soft-landing paradigm" has been called into question.
"It's always a mistake to over-interpret one month's number — and that's especially true in January, where calculating seasonality is difficult," he said. "But I think we have to recognize the possibility of a mini-paradigm shift."
(Excerpt) Read more at msn.com ...
We’re seeing signs both of upwards inflation, and unemployment. The migration from full-time to part-time jobs is notable as well, and has been going on at a low but elevated rate for a while - though it appears to be accelerating.
Yeh, sure. 🙄
“It’s always a mistake to over-interpret one month’s number — and that’s especially true in January, where calculating seasonality is difficult,”
Larry Summers is Krugman in drag. Both know less about economics than a bodega owner. That being said, the next move SHOULD be a rate hike. Inflation is still going gangbusters but they won’t do it in an election year. That would hurt the incumbent vegetable.
THOUSANDS HAVE BEEN LAID OFF-—AND BIDEN’S IDIOTS ARE CLAIMING 3.4% UNEMPLOYMENT
> …the Fed has to be “very careful.” <
Yes, indeed. They’ve got to balance inflation and rate hikes so as to give the Democrats a huge win in November. It won’t be easy.
But then again, the mail-in vote counters will be helping, too.
IIRC, the figures were acknowledged not to include the January layoffs. They have to be out for a time before they start unemployment - and many received severance packages as well. The Household Survey is picking up excess unemployment for a couple of months, but it takes longer to come in and get results.
All that said, the BLS counts differently than they used to.
Here’s some long-term stuff.
https://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts
https://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts
“The seasonally-adjusted SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994. That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers. The U-3 unemployment rate is the monthly headline number. The U-6 unemployment rate is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) broadest unemployment measure, including short-term discouraged and other marginally-attached workers as well as those forced to work part-time because they cannot find full-time employment.”
How about the elevation of people with full-time jobs and part-time jobs moving to 2 full-time jobs now?
No one talks about how insane it is that many people now have 2 full-time jobs just to make ends meet!
The Fed has no business doing anything with rates. Their job is to control the money supply, that is all.
Yes it’s not going to be a hard landing it’s going to be a crash.
Soon banks and bankers will look like 1929 money and banker gone doors licked
I give him a 50-50 chance of being right. Go away, you moron.
Agreed
Ah those wonderful Jimmy Carter years
Everything was great except for the Arab Oil Embargo and 22% house loans
Well, except for our boys in Vietnam who were still there.
“The Fed has no business doing anything with rates.”
Feds don’t control interest rates. They control the liquidity of overnight interbank transfers which impacts available money.
Off the shelf medicine, increased 58% over the last 3 years.
Was $11:94, then $14.94, then $17.94, and yesterday, $18.9.
Federal Reserve needs more money so they steal from us suckers.
“mini-paradigm shift” amusing
Not before the election.
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