Nvidia’s Skyrocketing Trajectory: Deja Vu of Dot Com Bubble… A Perilous Paradox Unfolding?

Citizen Watch Report ^

[davikkm]

Embarking on a narrative journey that transcends time, we unravel the captivating parallels between Nvidia’s meteoric rise and the cautionary tale of Cisco in 2000. If projections hold, Nvidia could transform into a $7.5 trillion behemoth within a year, evoking haunting memories of the Dot Com bubble.

March 2000 witnessed a similar saga with Cisco, and as history beckons, we ponder the unheeded warnings of the past. The charts, valuations, and a sense of unstoppable growth—all echo a familiar tune. Is this a prelude to another tech bubble burst?

[glorgau]

This is just like qualcomm stock back in the 90s.

Be sure to have stop limits on your trades.

[Brian Griffin]

“Qualcomm” probably had (and still has) very strong patent positions.

I’m not sure it is possible to have strong patent positions in high-speed computing hardware.

[blackdog]

Y2K was a scam. Every company and institution had to hire armies of techies to certify they were Y2K Compliant. There was no such thing.

Fast forward to the AI phenomenon. Merely history repeating itself.

[ComputerGuy]

Here’s another article your blog is pimping: https://citizenwatchreport.com/gazas-grim-toll-27019-martyrs-66139-wounded-a-heart-wrenching-chronicle-of-aggression-and-destruction-unfolding/

[StolarStorm]

Cisco is a disgusting woke company that treats conservatives like garbage. Forced the vaccine and then laid off many of those that got medical and religious exemptions. When Trump is back, hope he gets rid of fed contracts with them.

[MeganC]

“Here’s another article your blog is pimping”

...

“Would Mr. Humblegunner please pick up the white courtesy telephone? Mr. Humblegunner to the white courtesy telephone please!”

[Zathras]

Nvidia depends on how AI goes as they have been driving it for 10 years.

[irishjuggler]

I’ve been long on NVDA for about 8 or 9 years, but I’ve trimmed my position by about 50% in the last few months. They’re doing well, but this definitely feels like a bubble to me. Ultimately what they’re selling (chips) is a commodity business. A quarter century ago, Intel seems unstoppable... until AMD and others started eating their lunch. There’s no reason to believe that NVDA has some sort of moat that will let them rule the AI space forever. Everyone wants a piece of their action, and when their competitors start delivering a comparable product, and they will, the party will be over.

[Dr. Sivana]

Y2K was a scam. Every company and institution had to hire armies of techies to certify they were Y2K Compliant. There was no such thing.

Overblown, but not a scam. I was hired in November 1999, and discovered on my first day that the company ERp/Accounting system was most certainly NOT Y2K compliant, and I had 50 days get it right with little budget, and all the dos workstations had to be replaced as well as the main server to replace the Novell based Compaq 486 running the ERP. Yes, our ERP was the exception, but the problem was that not everyone hlknew what their system wouod do.

[AnotherUnixGeek]

GenAI is not possible without the processing power of advanced GPUs, and GenAI is an industry-wide mandate right now - the mass layoffs taking place throughout Silicon Valley are based on retrenchment and reorientation toward AI. I think NVidia is well-positioned to take advantage of the reorientation toward AI. This is not Bitcoin or some other fad.

[Mr. Blond]

FWIW, NVDA is the leader in AI right now, but can’t meet demand. AMD is arguably 2nd or 3rd, will be able to fill the gap for 1/3 the price with equal and sometimes greater performance, and they don’t rely entirely on TSMC.

[Pox]

Y2K was a scam?

Were you a coder prior to or after Y2K?

I coded. I wrote code in the 90’s and took into account the issue with 2 digits being used as the year and insured my code would work beyond Y2K. This was in COBOL.

The code written in programming languages prior to Y2K typically only used 2 digits for the year. Billions of lines of code.

The reason it looked like a scam is due to all the effort poured into fixed that code, or replacing it, to make sure the problems posited would not come to pass.

You have no idea WTF you're talking about, IMO.

[zeugma]

Y2K was a scam. Every company and institution had to hire armies of techies to certify they were Y2K Compliant. There was no such thing.

Bull. I know for a fact that without remediation, the switches MCI used at the time would fail hard. We tested it in our lab, and yup, the things crashed and wouldn't function without hands-on intervention. I believe MCI was the 2nd largest telecommunications company in the US at the time. That wouldn't have been pleasant.

It is likely that things were never as dire as some claimed, but there would have been some pretty large issues had we not tested, remediated, and validated things. In our case, we likely could have gotten all of the switches up in a few days, but call detail records would likely have been severely messed up.

[mowowie]

A new video car costs $1,000.
My PC gaming days are over...

[wita]

My PC gaming days are over...

That might be if you are gaming against others, but if you are the competition why would you need top of the line? Prices drop pretty quick when top of the line is replaced by the new latest. Of course there is always the problem of the games themselves requiring the latest just to be competitive in the game. Not sure how that works since I’m primarily racing or flying against myself.