Posted on 10/17/2008 9:37:48 AM PDT by melissa_in_ga
I'm trying to ignore the polls, since they are weighted toward Dems, but I saw the Gallup poll notice on Drudge last night and checked Intrade both last night and about 6:00 a.m. this morning. Obama still up. But now at 12:30, it's showing Obama down .4 and McCain up .7.
Last night my hubby told me to s-l-o-w-l-y step away from the computer. I need a life.
Since when is FR not a life?
Alleged Manipulation on IntradePersonally, I think that the smart money is looking at these new polls [Gallup traditional, the new Yahoo, etc], and is considering the Bradley/Wilder Effect, and is putting two plus two together to get five [or more].
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2107813/posts
People on here waste too much time on Intrade for sure. Nobody wagering on there has any inside information. They are following public polls and have generally the same perception of whatever the media is portraying.
FWIW a McCain aid said a little while ago that the reason they are in so called Obama strongholds is because of their own polls so evidently the REAL polls are showing a much closer race. Also they have Ohio and Florida solid blue on the map even though thats a false premise. They are far from in Obamas solid zone.
Intrade can and has been manipulated. No doubt it will be used to put despair into McCain voters.
Don’t waste your time or money there, it’s a con IMO.
Some guy likes to post why they are accurate, please spare me this time.
I can’t imagine how Intrade would actually be accurate, unless all the players were only there to make a profit.
But clearly they’re not. Some people are willing make enormous donations to their candidate. Nothing stops them from spending whatever amount of money they want to spend to make the Intrade numbers look like whatever they wish. The whole notion of Intrade breaks down unless it is being used to predict events that the traders are guaranteed to have no stake in.
The CEO of Intrade posted a commentary on that sort of manipulation and the short story is that the market absorbs those attempts. Basically you just end up putting money into the pockets of traders.
Alleged Manipulation on Intrade
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2107813/posts
I’ve been wondering about Intrade as well. I had thought about putting some money down on McCain, but with the voter fraud I don’t think it’s such a good idea.
Fox News is probably tired of being called a right- wing network, even though I don’t see it at all. It looks conservative because all the other networks are run by communists.
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