[nathanbedford]

This is the second article to appear within a few hours arguing in effect that the election result was baked in the cake and the campaigns altered destiny very little or not at all. The other article,Here's The Real Reason Nate Silver's Perfect Election Call Was Such An Awesome Breakthrough , list some interesting replies especially from jackmercer who agrees with the principal proposition that the election was out of reach for Romney throughout and it was, if anything, a get out the vote election.

This suggests that the crash was due to mechanical error rather than navigational error. Pilot error certainly was at the core of the problem if, as alleged, Romney did not test drive his get out the vote technology and it crashed on election morning.

As reassuring as it is to believe that ideology was not the root cause, we nevertheless must ask why the election was out of reach if not for ideology. We have to ask whether our get out the vote drive foundered because of ideology rather than mechanics. In other words, was the electorate immovable because they are ideologically opposed to the Republican- or if you prefer, Romney's- message.

Hence, we really have to understand the demographics of the electorate. Democrats such as Bob Beckel persistently say that the Republicans cannot win with less than 74% of the white vote and we got only 72%. He observes that this is the high watermark of white population in America and so the future is written on the wall for all to see.

If we do not know the realities of the demographics today, in 2014 and 2016 we will never know if we can cope with our deficiencies merely by tinkering with the get out the vote effort. We have to know what we are dealing with.

These articles which are now accumulating are beginning to tell us the story. We failed to get out the vote but we are not clear about whether there was any vote get out.

Before we assure the conservative world that we have the key to the next election, we ought to take the time to analyze and understand the data.

[nathanbedford]

Your name came up.

[pepsionice]

There are three lessons to take home on this election. First, picking Paul Ryan was a positive but they never turned the wheel on his Medicare talk and budget cuts....I don’t think the public ever got that message. Second, you have no choice....you have to go after the Hispanic vote, and that means passing the Dream Act, and getting Rubio out in front for the 2016 race. Third and final: the whole Democratic vote was based on splitting people up into classes and going after individual classes with perceived attention. Either you find a guy to unite classes or you have to play the same game in the end.

[Jim Robinson]

It wasn’t the message. It was the messenger.

[weezel]

dick morris, take a hike. You need to just get out of the game.

[gotribe]

If all this was baked in, then the only conclusion we can draw is that an incumbent holds a significant advantage over a challenger. So how have incumbent presidents been defeated in the past? BTW, if incumbency is what swung it for obama, then none of 2012 is a lesson for 2016.

[tomkat]

Our message simply does NOT get out .. we are denigrated at most every turn, on literally an hourly basis.

A way must be found to negate and/or (preferably) eviscerate the ENEMYdia.

Without a consortium of deep-pockets conservatives having the testicular fortitude to pick up the flag and plant it in the doorway of a competitive information outlet, I'm not hopeful.

/.02


             

[xzins]

Dick Morris really needs to be put on a back burner along with Barone and all the others who predicted a 310+ electoral victory.

In Morris’ case it’s easy to see him as a 5th columnist.

[Hugh the Scot]

I haven’t heard anyone, Republican, DemonRat, or Independent, say that they didn’t vote for Romney because he wasn’t liberal enough.
I have heard that he was “only out for the rich” which simply means that our side has done a lousy job of communicating how much good Conservative policies actually do for the poor and middle class. Having a job and income is better than slavery to the government, being free allows you to better your circumstances, etc.

[patriot08]

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Sign the petition for a recount:
http://www.petition2congress.com/8222/petition-recount-on-2012-presidential-election/

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Visit this site. They are keeping a running account of cases of voter fraud and what to do about it:
http://www.ObamaVoterFraud.com/

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_________________________

From the website:
http://www.ObamaVoterFraud.com/

Barack Obama voter fraud 2012

Friday, November 9, 2012 - 22 Updates Posted Today and People You Can Contact! See FRIDAY UPDATES! *

Is this what Barack Obama calls a “ground game?” All things considered, on this page and elsewhere, Mitt Romney IS our President elect. Let’s do something about it!

I’ll be adding additional links on a regular basis and forwarding all of this information to Mitt’s campaign! Please send other links.

Evidence of massive Obama voter fraud in Colorado! Ten counties show 104% to 140% turnout!
http://www.redstate.com/2012/09/04/colorado-counties-have-more-voters-than-people/

Fraud: Some told they already voted, others brag about voting multiple times
http://www.examiner.com/article/fraud-some-told-they-already-voted-others-brag-about-voting-multiple-times

Crooked Politics: Obama Lost in Every State With Photo ID Law
http://american3rdposition.com/?p=8416

Philly Polling Stations Where GOP Inspectors Were Kicked Out Had 90% Voter Turnout, 99% Voted For Obama…
http://weaselzippers.us/2012/11/08/philly-polling-stations-where-gop-inspectors-were-kicked-out-had-90-voter-turnout-99-voted-for-obama/

[Sounds like those Black Panthers who kicked out the GOP observers and stood guard at the polling stations were not just trying to intimidate voters! They were hiding something!]

Voter Fraud Watch: Two Election Judges Replaced After Illegal Activity in Ohio - Fox News Insider
http://foxnewsinsider.com/2012/11/07/voter-fraud-watch-two-election-judges-replaced-after-illegal-activity-in-ohio/

Why the Polls are Wrong: Electorate is R+6
http://www.breitbart.com/InstaBlog/2012/11/05/Why-the-Polls-are-Wrong-Poll-Shows-Electorate-is-R-6

Vote fraud alert: One out of five registered Ohio voters is bogus
http://www.humanevents.com/2012/09/17/vote-fraud-alert-one-out-of-five-registered-ohio-voters-is-bogus/#.UJrnpl7Imc0.facebook

via @BeachCity55 on Twitter: Senior parents in Florida told not to put their ballots through their reader but in a box. Senior votes in FL not counted?

Data Points To A Powerful Romney Campaign – And Yet…He Lost?
http://goo.gl/GB723

“You have to vote for Dems” NYC poll worker tells GOP Senate candidate #IllegalElectioneering
http://goo.gl/nn5CN

At least 70,000 report voting problems, mostly in swing states
http://goo.gl/jjCSX

Plane crash destroys Afghanistan US military ballots, most of which are for Mitt Romney
http://goo.gl/kNLFz

Obama’s pattern of disenfranchisement of the military vote
http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=48

Another Stolen Election? Election data HIGHLY suspicious AND the George Soros’ “Secretary of State Project” http://goo.gl/y1ybR

Yes, this is the same George Soros who owns part of the company in Spain Obama outsourced parts of the election to and who has been banned from Hungary because he tampered with elections there.

We will continue to add updates! Please check back often!

________________________________

THURSDAY UPDATES:

From Lynn Victory on Facebook:

“Thanks for what you are doing. My son is friends with a guy in the Romney campaign who has actually been on since 2008. He is not high up, but said that the O campaign bought high tech equipment to target county by county where the votes were needed in battle-ground states, so that they could “bus in the needed votes”. The guy would not say fraud, but that is fraud.”

Also this referral from Lynn:
White House Insider on Obama Steal the Votes Strategy (Just Before the Election)

“But…these Obama boys…they took it to a whole other level. Votes, donations…deals…it’s a lot more Putin than it is Clinton. Pay to play…Big Labor…this country never seen it at this level.”
http://theulstermanreport.com/2012/11/01/white-house-insider-governor-romney-is-gonna-win-this-thing/

Voter fraud witnessed in Wisconsin by one of Mitt’s ORCA observers:
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=387389068009997&set=a.362561847159386.84375.361783440570560&type=1&theater

via Lori Patriot on Facebook:
52 Democrats arrested for VOTER FRAUD so far
http://www.newsnet14.com/?p=92957

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VIDEO: Illegal Aliens Caught Voting and Stealing Elections In Florida In Vast Numbers
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=ILJDudUpct0

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In 2008, John McCain Ignored Vote Fraud to Avoid Civil Unrest
http://www.canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/46302

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Michael Savage: How Obama fixed 2012 election
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=dmJtaOO2etc

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Massive voter fraud discovered in April
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=ILJDudUpct0

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Is Voter Fraud Being Committed in Ohio? (Early Voting)
http://www.humanevents.com/2012/10/26/is-voter-fraud-being-committed-in-ohio/

___________________________

FRIDAY UPDATES:

Pundit Press: What Luck! Obama Won Dozens of Cleveland Districts with 100% of the Vote
http://www.punditpress.com/2012/11/what-luck-obama-won-dozens-of-cleveland.html

Photo of Ethiopians brought to Ohio voting stations by busload, 95% of whom did not speak English, and told to vote for Obama, straight Dem ticket
https://www.facebook.com/lori.patriot/posts/404694619604138

“Did this Dirty Trick Get Obama Re-Elected?”
http://www.wnd.com/2012/11/did-this-dirty-trick-get-obama-elected/

Vote Fraud Expert: Romney Votes Not Counted in Key States
http://www.prisonplanet.com/vote-fraud-expert-romney-votes-not-counted-in-key-states.html

“Could we fix an election? Sure, they would never know it.”
http://theulstermanreport.com/2012/11/09/could-we-fix-an-election-sure-they-would-never-know-it/

Thousands of votes from our military troops uncounted or missing
http://www.examiner.com/article/cast-aside-thousands-of-votes-from-our-military-troops-uncounted-or-missing

Defense Department can’t put soldiers, ballots together
http://www.wnd.com/2012/11/defense-department-cant-put-soldiers-ballots-together/

Voter fraud in Pennsylvania - Black Panthers return, GOP inspectors thrown out
http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/conscience-conservative/2012/nov/6/voter-fraud-pennsylvania-black-panthers-return-gop/

Ohio fraudulent voter registration cards
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/Ohio-voter-registration-fraud/2012/11/03/id/462674

Ohio Residents Told They Already Voted When They Showed Up At the Polls Tuesday
http://godfatherpolitics.com/7942/ohio-residents-told-they-already-voted-when-they-showed-up-at-the-polls-tuesday/#.UJuBsqfTvHc.facebook

Poll Worker Puts Glendale Precinct’s Ballots on Car, Drives Away
http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/Ballots-Found-in-Glendale-Street-177720291.html

Referenced above, but with more information:

Two Ohio Election Judges Removed for Allowing Unregistered Voters to Cast Ballots
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/11/06/Report-Two-Election-Judges-Removed-By-Hamilton-County-Ohio-for-Allowing-Unregistered-Voters-to-Cast-Ballots

Democrat Admits He’s Voted FOUR Times Already
http://nation.foxnews.com/voter-fraud/2012/11/05/democrat-admits-hes-voted-four-times-already

Boston reports 129% voter turnout, 79% for Obama; 74% for Elizabeth Warren
http://poorrichardsnews.com/post/35319922188/voter-fraud-boston-reports-129-voter-turnout-79-for

This one could be just a calibration issue, but not necessarily based on the programer’s testimony in the next link:
Voting machine swaps Romney for Obama
http://www.marionstar.com/article/20121031/NEWS03/310310009

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.

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Programmer Testifies About Rigging Elections With Vote Counting
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Hbf3iaEbAuY

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VIDEO: Possible voter fraud in Pennsylvania — or just voting machine malfunction?
http://blogs.seattletimes.com/uwelectioneye/2012/11/06/possible-voter-fraud-in-pennsylvania/

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Voter Fraud Complaint Filed against Florida Democrats
http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/voter-fraud-Florida-Democrats/2012/10/05/id/458894

“Ballot Re-writers” Update from Allen Westhttps://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=299196730187117&set=a.198312883608836.34844.198021666971291&type=1&theater

“Half the Democratic ground game is voter turnout. The other half is voter fraud.”

Voter Fraud: Obama Won 108% of Registered Voters in Wood County, Ohio
http://frontpagemag.com/2012/dgreenfield/voter-fraud-obama-won-%108-of-registered-voters-in-ohio-county/

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Video: Diebold Whistleblower Speaks Out on Voter Fraud
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=k_rMpQKqZhM

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BREAKING: St. Lucie County, Florida Had 141.1% Turnout; Obama Won County
http://www.ihatethemedia.com/breaking-st-lucie-county-florida-had-1411-turnout-obama-won-county

Between St. Lucie and Broward Counties, we have a pretty good idea what happened in Florida. Normal voting is what, 50% turnout? It doesn’t take many counties like this to affect an entire state by multiple percentage points.

All of these numbers between 99% (Pennsylvania) and 141.1% (Florida) turnout in dozens of counties in swing states makes me think Team Obama was panicking a lot just before the election, with Mitt up by 7% in certain early voting polls.
They overcompensated so much the fraud is impossible to hide. I think they know it, which may be one reason Axelrod is stepping down. (Sound familiar Petraeus and Benghazi?)

As I told someone earlier today, this is who Obama is. This is who Chicago (the machine) is.
Do we really want this to be who America is?
Is this how we will define our elections from 2008 on? As Mitt says, “America can do better.”
We must do better. We can’t let the message be out there that America will let this fraud go.

Want to do something about all of this? Tiffany Banks and Darin Southam forwarded me a list of people you can contact who are in the November 9, 2012 3:12 PM comment below.

Did you know voters can request a recount in certain states? (Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Wisconsin!) Take a look at the comment by @RightonMainSt dated November 9, 2012 11:45 PM below for instructions! Mitt will have to ask in Colorado himself. (Yes, you Mitt!)

It has also been suggested that we ask Republican Secretaries of State NOT to certify the election until all questions about voter fraud are abated.
Some people think this may provoke a crisis, but it can’t be worse than the one we are looking at for the next four years and the impact on generations to come!
America NEEDS Mitt, and Mitt won fair and square. This was not a ballot stuffing competition but an election. Let’s make sure it’s counted that way!

Thank you all. Over 7,500 people have visited this page in the first 24 hours and I hope millions will see it eventually. Please pass it on! We can do this! (Yes we can!)

http://www.ObamaVoterFraud.com/

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[Alberta's Child]

Personally, I think it's almost impossible to make a solid assessment about the 2012 election at this point because the statements I'm seeing are all over the map and the GOP candidate in particular had such a strange political background and track record that it's hard to figure out what motivated anyone to vote for him -- or to stay home.

One thing I would absolutely say is that it makes no sense to nominate a presidential candidate from a state that he has no hope of winning. I mean, come on ... the Romney Election Night campaign headquarters was in BOSTON? ROFL.

[Average Al]

Romney never made it past what people saw. An older rich white guy, with barrels of cash, a confusing message, who was caught on a video telling rich donors he doesn’t care about half the population. I voted for Romney but this is what I’m hearing from other people I expected to vote for him that didn’t. As to all those middle age white suburban married couples, how many of them saw their college students getting additional grant assistance from Obama that saved them big bucks? I’ve heard this was a big issue for college kids and their parents.

[driftless2]

For many decades the axiom was “it’s the economy, stupid.” Well this election contradicted that axiom and proved it false. The economy was horrible, but the idiot in charge of it still got re-elected. Practically all Romney talked about was the bad economy. And he still got beat. When I saw polls that reported most American still blame Bush (falsely) for the bad eocnomy, I knew things were going to be tough for Romney. And he never tried to dissuade voters from that false view. Next time the Pubbie president had better be ideological.

[1010RD]

Here is what is happening:

http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2012/10/rodden_on_the_g.html

Jonathan Rodden, political science professor at Stanford and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution speaks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the geography of voting. The main focus is on the tendency of urban voters around the world to vote for candidates on the left relative to suburban and rural voters. Rodden argues that this pattern is related to the geography of work and housing going back to the industrial revolution. He also discusses the implications of various voting systems such as winner-take-all vs. proportional representation, the electoral college and how political systems and voter preferences can produce unexpected outcomes.

Check your history books. People move to the City because it's easier, density means opportunity, but it also means conflict. Populism arises as politicians parcel out positions divvying up the public and satisfying their specific group demands. Like a good restaurateur they serve the meals their clients want. That's good politics. It's the politics of victory.

The equivalent in economics is Gresham's Law which reads: “Bad money drives out good if their exchange rate is set by law.” This is the case in politics. The “exchange rate” is government/taxpayer transfer funds and they are set by law along with the election code. It's how things are and how they'll always be...

[Happy Rain]

Dole LOST!!! McCain LOST!!! Romney LOST!!!

Reagan LANDSLIDE!!! Reagan LANDSLIDE!!!

yadda yadda blah blah woof woof on everything else...

...don't run RINOS!!!

[BroJoeK]

nathanbedford: "This is the second article to appear within a few hours arguing in effect that the election result was baked in the cake and the campaigns altered destiny very little or not at all."

Something is wrong with this picture.
Consider the following numbers (from Wikipedia):

• 2004 Bush received 62 million votes (v. 59 million for Kerry).

• 2008 McCain received 59.9 million votes (v. 69.5 million for Obama) = McCain got 2.1 million fewer than Bush.

• 2012 Romney received 58.6 million votes (v. 61.8 million for Obama) = Romney got 1.3 million fewer than McCain.

I have not seen a breakdown, state by state, of 2008 vs. 2012, but everything suggests that very small numbers would have made a big difference.

So where did our previous votes go?
Who were those people, and what did they do in 2008 and 2012?

Seems to me that if we can't get our own voters to vote for our guy, then how can we ever convince more liberal-leaning ethnic, and other defined groups, that free-dom is better than Big Government's free-stuff.

Might I suggest one answer:

• In 2004 Libertarians received 400,000 votes.
  
• In 2008 Libertarians received 500,000 votes.
  
• In 2012 Libertarians received 1.2 million votes.

So how many of those came from critical swing states?

[carton253]

This “we failed to get the vote out” really bothers me.

1) Who, in this country, did not know it was election day?
2) Who, in this county, did not realize what was at stake?

ORCA crashing did not lose the election... People not giving a crap about their own future to do something about it did. So let’s put the blame where it belongs. In the lap of everyone who stayed home.

[SeminoleCounty]

The GOP can forget winning elections if they pander for Illegal Alien Amnesty

I am so tired of Liberals pushing Illegal Alien Amnesty...and Liberals in GOP Media pushing the “Hispanic Vote Myth”

You get more votes from moderate white Democrats with a strong National Security/Secure Norders/100% Deportation platform...than you get Hispanic votes from passing Illegal Alien Amnesty.

Fact is...Obama got 40% of the white vote. You would have to get about 400% of the Hispanic vote to equal that pct of white voters...and I don’t think the Dems would allow the GOP to stuff the ballot box

[Gritty]

Until we can clean up the fraudulent voting processes in this country, we will keep losing.

It's not who votes that counts. It's who counts the votes. - Josef Stalin

[randita]

The simplest explanation is often the best.

People like Obama. They didn’t like Romney (especially after Obama spent all summer demonizing him).

[2 Kool 2 Be 4-Gotten]

This is more or less the drum I was beating in the run-up to the election.

All of the breathless poll results - this candidate benefited from the debate, that candidate benefited from Sandy, TV ads, Facebook ads. I basically said that all of that analysis made no common sense.

For the people that I come into contact in my daily life, their minds were made up a long time ago. True, there were some voters who switched their votes from 4 years ago but that was not a result of any of the campaigning, debates, ads etc. I think that was due to a realization that they had been taken in in 2008 and that reality had slapped them in the face. But those transformations had already taken place, IMHO.

I think the results *were* baked in very early on and all of the poll swings and results were shiny metal objects to give the commentators and “journalists” something to talk about and to write about.

Throw in a healthy helping of voter fraud and combine that with the sharp red/blue divide that has existed at least as far back as 2000 and you have your American Electorate.

I think here, at least, Morris has it right.