It is my strong opinion that Texas Intermediate Crude will go higher than $80/bbl (inflation adjusted) for NO LONGER than 4 months ever again in the next 100 years. The amount of shale gas&oil available in the USA will place severe limits on what the market will bear. The average monthly price will be at or under $65/bbl. Many economic and technological factors will contribute to this. OPEC is now dead as a long-term economic force though of course they can cause short term (major) pain and dislocations any time they wish.
That’s really an interesting take, and I hope it is true. I hear a repeated refrain that fracked oil wells peak and output diminishes quickly after 2 to 4 years. It made sense economically with oil above $110 per barrel, but not at half that. That’s what I hear from one side, and they claim to have the well-life data to back it up.
And Venezuela needs $110 per barrel oil for its government to stay afloat. Persistent costs below that rate and it is coup time. So I really hope you are right.
Viva la Revolucion!