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A good example of building a model is one that perfectly fits the historical data of the Stock Market. Trust me, give me enough parameters and I can build an equation (* See Note Below) that maps to the DJ Industrial average with in an inch over that past 50 years. Essentially a perfect fit.
The question is: How good is that model when it comes to telling where the market will be a year from now.
The answer is: About as good as your best guess. Maybe not quite that good.
* Note Below: OK, I confess I couldn’t actually build that equation but I could have at one time and that all that counts. ;)
If they pull an algore and extend that y-axis by 10, that line will be almost straight up!
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Probably the only thing wrong with UN supercomputers where climate modeling is concerned amounts to “garbage in, garbage out.”
And, the article lost me right here:
” increases in greenhouse gases like CO2 contribute to that, and that we’ve got good reason to think humans are contributing to that increase.”
How are humans contributing to that increase? Wouldn’t increased CO2 be a benefit, for plant growth (both natural, and man-groomed food crops)? What caused the Earth to cool way back when? What caused it to go into an ice age? What caused it to come OUT of an ice age? And repeat the process?
MAN is NOT the cause, OR solution, to “climate change”.