Don't tell the pearl-clutchers!
Posted on 03/06/2018 4:42:30 PM PST by lasereye
Republicans are learning an uncomfortable reality about the political environment for 2018: Tax cuts, conservative culture-war staples, and even Nancy Pelosi herself probably won’t be enough to overcome the deep hole that President Trump has put them in. With the White House awash in scandal and struggling to articulate its agenda, the political mood has turned so grim that Republicans are in danger of losing an upcoming special election in the heart of Trump country.
That’s the lesson to draw from the surprisingly competitive campaign Democrat Conor Lamb is running in a Pittsburgh-area district Trump easily carried by 20 points, surviving millions of dollars in outside GOP attack ads portraying Lamb as a liberal in disguise. Even a close loss in such a reliably conservative area would raise red flags that Democrats are on the verge of a major landslide in the November midterms.
If Lamb wins, it would be an unmistakable verdict that the healthy economy and Trump tax cuts will be overshadowed by the administration’s dysfunction and roiling suburban anger. Though the economy may play to the GOP’s advantage, the culture wars have turned squarely in the Democratic Party’s favor—and that’s what matters in today’s politics.
Here’s how tricky things have gotten for Republicans: GOP outside groups have dramatically scaled back their ads promoting the party’s tax cut, with the messaging barely moving the needle in the district’s working-class confines. The latest round of advertisements focus on law-and-order issues, like immigration and crime. A new spot from the Paul Ryan-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC slams Lamb for supporting “amnesty to illegal immigrants” because he “worked in the Obama administration.” A National Republican Congressional Committee ad portrays Lamb as soft on crime because he negotiated a plea deal with a notorious drug kingpin during his tenure as a federal prosecutor. These culture-war ads are reminiscent of those run by Ed Gillespie in his failed Virginia gubernatorial campaign, and they carry the whiff of desperation.
Meanwhile, Republicans are sufficiently concerned about the energy from the Democratic base that CLF is distributing a mailer in suburban precincts of Allegheny County “thanking” Lamb for supporting gun rights. It’s a cynical attempt to dampen Democratic enthusiasm for his campaign. The mailer, first reported by The Washington Post, underscores how even in a district where Second Amendment support is strong, gun control has become a fresh rallying cry for a supercharged Democratic electorate post-Parkland.
In another warning sign for Republicans, there are indications that conservative-minded voters in this district value government entitlements as much as tax cuts. Lamb’s rebuttal to the GOP tax-cut argument was that he supported “middle-class tax cuts” but not ones that could lead to cuts to Social Security and Medicare. In an acknowledgment that the Democratic message resonated, a new CLF ad turns the tables and accuses Pelosi of supporting “massive Medicare cuts” while arguing that Lamb “won’t protect seniors.” As Republicans learned in the 2016 presidential campaign, the agenda backed by GOP donors doesn’t necessarily jibe with the issues that the GOP rank-and-file cares about—especially in a blue-collar district like this one.
Republicans are eager to pin a disappointing result in this election on their candidate—state Rep. Rick Saccone—but the reality is the race is being defined on Trump’s terms. Saccone is running as an unapologetic Trump supporter, calling himself the president’s “wingman” in an interview with National Journal last month. Trump will be campaigning for Saccone on March 10, and he is likely to promote his newly announced tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. It’s a protectionist position that Saccone quickly embraced, and one that is popular with the district’s sizable union membership.
This southwest Pennsylvania district is about as Trumpian as it gets: racially homogeneous, predominantly blue-collar, and filled with energy workers revolutionizing the region’s economy. To Lamb’s credit, he’s run a disciplined campaign and staked out moderate views on guns and fracking that have distinguished him from typical Democrats. But if Republicans can’t hold onto this seat with more than $9 million of outside GOP money invested here, it will serve as an awfully rude awakening to what’s likely to come for the midterms.
Why is fj delusional? The President has a 50% approval rating, Repubs are phyched about seeing all of the conservative and the majority of people who work in both parties are seeing more money in their paychecks. In addition, the OIG report may deal huge damage to the Dems. I don't see any basis for doom and gloom.
The GOPe never trump crowd will lick the boots of the socialist-democrats out of pure spite, or in solitary.
Fainting couches and clutching pearls will be in high demand come November.
The conservatives will be cowering in the corner, fearing that they might be called mean names by CNN or PMSNBC, or of all horrors, be labeled rascists, bigots, homophobes, or some other bullshit by people who want to see them dead.
Wrong on both counts.
Entire article is idiotic.
You seem to have forgotten what happened in November 2016 and all the confident predictions of a 97 percent certainty of a Hilary Clinton victory from the likes of the New York Times before that.
From these reactions, one would think that the election were days away rather than months.
Well, the GOP-e has proven LESS than worthless. About all we hear from GOP-e types are slurs against President Trump, BS and unsubstantiated allegations.
If they get voted out of office, they deserve it!
BUT... here’s the rub...we need to Drain the GOP-e Swamp and turn the party into something positive and useful again.
Otherwise, HilLIARy or MadMaxine Waters or Nancy Pelousy or Bernie the Red (or even the Fake Injun Squaw) could very well lie, cheat, and steal their way into the White House in 2020, imho.
Merely disagreeing with you does not make one delusional- except maybe you.
You trot out an article that you personally agree with, great. But to call those who fail to share your faith in an article you posted “delusional” smacks of severe libtarditis.
The alleged scandals are Fake News.
The agenda is America First.
Under that scenario, it's a loss for the GOP. Way more DEM seats are up in the Senate than GOP. If the GOP can't at least gain a couple, that's 6 more years this group of mostly DEM Senators.
And this is why Trump voters are tossing those RNC fund-begging letters in the trash, putting the RNC on the blocked number list when they call begging for money, and are largely apathetic towards going to the polls.
Congressional Republicans have demonstrated themselves not only hostile to President Trump's MAGA agenda but wholly uninterested in leading. And as they stand by and watch their President get hobbled over baseless accusations by a special council they refuse to shut down, they've shown themselves to be perhaps the most cowardly gaggle of dickless eunuchs to ever darken Capitol Hill.
You know, a country that lets teachers change the sex of their children is not going to last very long.
I seriously doubt the GOP loses the House or the Senate. This is low tide. The tide rises by June and floods by September/October.
Trump's not running in 2018, nor is Hillary, who many in this country despised and voted against here. I don't sense Trump has much in the way of coattails, and the GOPe prefers it that way.
“It’s gonna be a Democrat wave in November.”
You have absolutely zero evidence to make that statement, other than the propaganda of the MSM. Unless you have a godlike ability to quickly move across the fifty states and assess the minds of the entire population.
650,000 Trump voters staying home in Alabama on election day was not vote fraud.
When we run lousy candidates that don't motivate the base and they lose, we really need to stop crying "vote fraud" as our immediate reaction, particularly in states where conservative Republicans control every facet of the election machinery.
It's pathetic.
I totally agree. Our side is failing to take seriously how unpopular and hated Trump is, especially in the suburbs where elections are won. We also fail to realize how much damage the Mueller investigation has done to Trump. That is all Jeff Sessions fault. Trumps dysfunctional White House firings, demotions and resignataions does not make matters any better. He has made some really awful appointments.
I know Trump has already announced for 2020. Its a moot point becuase once the Democats control both houses of congress and control the investigations, there will be no 2020 for him. He will be impeached and convicted with help from the Democrats GOPe friends. Juan McCain might just hold on for another year so he can cast the vote to convict Trump.
I fear you are correct
Where is your proof? Just because you seem to be a pantywaist doesn't mean the rest of us are.
“It’s gonna be a Democrat wave in November. I think they not only take the House but the Senate.”
I’ll bet you would love proving that, cement your place in the naysayers doom and gloom hall of fame.
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