Posted on 03/06/2018 4:42:30 PM PST by lasereye
Republicans are learning an uncomfortable reality about the political environment for 2018: Tax cuts, conservative culture-war staples, and even Nancy Pelosi herself probably won’t be enough to overcome the deep hole that President Trump has put them in. With the White House awash in scandal and struggling to articulate its agenda, the political mood has turned so grim that Republicans are in danger of losing an upcoming special election in the heart of Trump country.
That’s the lesson to draw from the surprisingly competitive campaign Democrat Conor Lamb is running in a Pittsburgh-area district Trump easily carried by 20 points, surviving millions of dollars in outside GOP attack ads portraying Lamb as a liberal in disguise. Even a close loss in such a reliably conservative area would raise red flags that Democrats are on the verge of a major landslide in the November midterms.
If Lamb wins, it would be an unmistakable verdict that the healthy economy and Trump tax cuts will be overshadowed by the administration’s dysfunction and roiling suburban anger. Though the economy may play to the GOP’s advantage, the culture wars have turned squarely in the Democratic Party’s favor—and that’s what matters in today’s politics.
Here’s how tricky things have gotten for Republicans: GOP outside groups have dramatically scaled back their ads promoting the party’s tax cut, with the messaging barely moving the needle in the district’s working-class confines. The latest round of advertisements focus on law-and-order issues, like immigration and crime. A new spot from the Paul Ryan-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC slams Lamb for supporting “amnesty to illegal immigrants” because he “worked in the Obama administration.” A National Republican Congressional Committee ad portrays Lamb as soft on crime because he negotiated a plea deal with a notorious drug kingpin during his tenure as a federal prosecutor. These culture-war ads are reminiscent of those run by Ed Gillespie in his failed Virginia gubernatorial campaign, and they carry the whiff of desperation.
Meanwhile, Republicans are sufficiently concerned about the energy from the Democratic base that CLF is distributing a mailer in suburban precincts of Allegheny County “thanking” Lamb for supporting gun rights. It’s a cynical attempt to dampen Democratic enthusiasm for his campaign. The mailer, first reported by The Washington Post, underscores how even in a district where Second Amendment support is strong, gun control has become a fresh rallying cry for a supercharged Democratic electorate post-Parkland.
In another warning sign for Republicans, there are indications that conservative-minded voters in this district value government entitlements as much as tax cuts. Lamb’s rebuttal to the GOP tax-cut argument was that he supported “middle-class tax cuts” but not ones that could lead to cuts to Social Security and Medicare. In an acknowledgment that the Democratic message resonated, a new CLF ad turns the tables and accuses Pelosi of supporting “massive Medicare cuts” while arguing that Lamb “won’t protect seniors.” As Republicans learned in the 2016 presidential campaign, the agenda backed by GOP donors doesn’t necessarily jibe with the issues that the GOP rank-and-file cares about—especially in a blue-collar district like this one.
Republicans are eager to pin a disappointing result in this election on their candidate—state Rep. Rick Saccone—but the reality is the race is being defined on Trump’s terms. Saccone is running as an unapologetic Trump supporter, calling himself the president’s “wingman” in an interview with National Journal last month. Trump will be campaigning for Saccone on March 10, and he is likely to promote his newly announced tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. It’s a protectionist position that Saccone quickly embraced, and one that is popular with the district’s sizable union membership.
This southwest Pennsylvania district is about as Trumpian as it gets: racially homogeneous, predominantly blue-collar, and filled with energy workers revolutionizing the region’s economy. To Lamb’s credit, he’s run a disciplined campaign and staked out moderate views on guns and fracking that have distinguished him from typical Democrats. But if Republicans can’t hold onto this seat with more than $9 million of outside GOP money invested here, it will serve as an awfully rude awakening to what’s likely to come for the midterms.
This article reminds me of all the articles from the New York Times before the Georgia 6 congressional elections whereby they insisted that it was a referendum on President Trump, who was very toxic to the GOP etc etc. When Karen Handel of the GOP won, all such articles about referendums on Trump promptly disappeared.
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Trump didn’t put them in it, the GOP did. The GOP created and gave succor to the special counsel, to the Russia story, they stopped the wall, they stopped the repeal of Obamacare, they have forced Trump to keep Sessions. They were dragged kicking and screaming to a half-assed tax cut.
And they blame Trump.
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BINGO, but don’t forget about the $1T+ deficits too ([illegally] saddling children for votes today). They’ve done NOTHING to warrant (re)election. Too many in the ‘CON’ column and not enough ‘PRO’.
Small govt? PFfft, are you KIDDING me?!
Whatever. I don’t feel like panicking yet.
And that is exactly the kind of poison that Barack and Big Mike Moochelle brought to fools and idiots.
Don’t blame the GOP for the Special Counsel, blame Trump. He picked Sessions. He picked Rosenstein. He picked Noel Francisco. Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell and John McCain and Mitt Romney or whomever — none of these people made Trump hire any of these folks.
“I’m in suburban Pittsburgh. There is no “roiling suburban anger aimed at Trump” here.”
There are parts of the South Hills of Pittsburgh in this district that are perpetually angry about anyone that isn’t a liberal ... keep in mind that not all union people like Trump (mostly the public sector type) ... a lot of them live in the South Hills. They should be in guppy-faced, “makes Bob Casey Jr look like a workaholic” Mike Doyle’s district.
If this group turns out and typical voters don’t take the time to vote (like we saw in Alabama), it could be bad. Despite the piles of cash poured into this election, I can’t see Lamb winning no matter what the polls say, but if people aren’t motivated to vote, Lamb can certainly win this ... seriously, the dude seems to have full permission to use the church of liberalism’s version of taquiyya ... the Dems did the *exact* same thing in 2006 when they won the House back.
Some state election officials need to be very visibly charged with felony vote fraud this summer. That will create the "chilling effect" needed to begin returning our electoral process to honesty.
F that. Rinos did this. Rinos run the House and the Senate and couldn’t get Sh*t done. As usual. Hope they do lose, and I hope it’s a clean sweap and it all burns down.
How do the Dems pick up the Senate. Easy. They hold all their seats and get two very easy pick ups in heavily hispanic NV and AZ.
Some supporters are democrats don’t forget.
Also Dems have an attractive candidate who’s campaigning as a conservative. GOP has an old white guy with an old message.
Such a load of garbage.
It’s turning into open warfare.
On one side are the voters who are law abiding America loving patriots, working taxpayers, independent minded, traditionalists and Christians.
Voting on the other side are the globalists, wealthy liberals, plantation dwelling moochers, illegals, America haters, Christian hating sexual perverts, muslim hate mongers and dead people.
Trump’s support with the GOP base is as strong as ever. He has by far more support with the GOP base than the last two GOP presidents had and far more support with the base than any GOP politician right now. He certainly has more coattails than any politician Democrat or Republican right now.
Is this The Onion?
It’s MESSAGING. If lamb wins it’s because the GOPe message is not motivating the I and D MAGA voters to the polls.
This election is completely wrong message to get these voters motivated.
GOPe is running a GOPe campaign and not a MAGA/Trump campaign.
It’s beyond stupid watching the messaging in this race... the Dems and never Trumps will crawl over glass to vote and the GOPe campaign is a tired old GOPe campaign. It willl not get the Trump voter motivated to turn out.
If Lamb wins it will be because of messaging
Do you know how to read? Trump carried the district by 20 points. This district is not the city of Pittsburgh. It's a Pittsburgh-area district.
I thought conservatives were not delusional like lefties but I'm starting to reconsider.
“Is this The Onion?*
That or Jack Daniels
I don’t buy what the mainstream media is selling.
You shouldn’t either.
I think so too. It’s not Trump who is unpopular, it’s the GOP who won’t get off their dead assess and support Trump’s agenda.
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