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The CDC confirms Marriage is Dead

According to the CDC and the National Survey of Family Growth, 93% of first marriages fail within the first 10 years. Quote:

First Marriage Survival (Probability of lasting more than 10 years) Probability

Probability that a first marriage will survive 10 years 6.6 % – 1 in 15

If there was no birth during marriage 3.7 % – 1 in 27

If there was a birth before marriage 6.5 % – 1 in 15

If there was a birth 0-7 months after marriage 7.4 % – 1 in 13

If there was a birth 8+ months after marriage 7.9 % – 1 in 12

Sorry, I saw that quoted a few times on the internet but all the references seem to dead end at https://www.statisticbrain.com/marriage-statistics (which I didn't link because Windows Defender said it tried to load a trojan) without any links to an actual CDC report. A 93% divorce rate matches neither my experience nor the fact that the marriage rate is about twice the divorce rate (6.9 vs 3.2 per 1000 respectively). Also an actual CDC page states that 36% of first marriages among women 15-44 years of age suffer from some type of "disruption" (which is defined as either a separation, divorce or death) in the first ten years.

Do you have a link to the actual CDC report you quote? The numbers just make no sense.

Those numbers cannot be correct based on CDC reports:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/marriage_divorce_tables.htm

2014: 6.9% rate per 1000 population is marriage rate, and 3.2% is divorce/annulment rate. Which means the rate of divorce to marriages is less than 50% range. 3.2 % of 1000 is 32, and 6.9% of 1000 is 69; that means 47 of those marriages survived of the 6.9% marriage rate.

Where are the statistics page for the other percentages?

THE ACTUAL CDC STUDY ASCRIBES A 68-70% PROBABILITY OF A FIRST MARRIAGE LASTING 10 YEARS.

Check it out. On page 18, Table 7...there it is, in black and white.

Despite what the media says, America remains an nation largely of married folks. Using the IRS’ SOI data, 54 million filers in 2014 out of 149 million filers were Married filing jointly, with about 29 million being married filing single. That’s a whole lot of married people.

The divorce rate is not 50% - this is one of the most abused statistics out there...the divorce rate is NOT the quotient of annual marriages and divorces...the divorce rate is #of annual divorces divided by number of marriages at the beginning of the year.

While the 2014 divorce total of 814k excludes data for California, Georgia, Hawaii, Indiana, and Minnesota, let’s be conservative and gross up 814k by 20%/close to the percentage of electoral votes those states represent...about one million divorces versus about 64 million marriages (54 million married filing jointly couples plus 29/2 million married filing single) is 1/68.5 or a 1.5% divorce rate. BOOM!

No, the NUMERIC TRUTH is Americans love marriage, love the institution of marriage, and have not caved in to magazines and the media, pushing an anti-marriage agenda. Americans voting with their lives generally belie that false narrative.