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Chinese Space Station Crash: Why It's So Hard to Predict Where Space Debris Will Land
Space.com ^ | March 29, 2018 07:19am ET | Matteo Ceriotti, University of Glasgow |

Posted on 03/29/2018 12:57:17 PM PDT by BenLurkin

Newton’s laws tell us that satellites orbit the Earth in perfectly circular or elliptical orbits, repeating their path again and again (assuming that gravity is the only force acting on them). However, this is not true at low altitudes, say below 1,000km, because the satellite is then moving through the Earth’s atmosphere. This causes “aerodynamic drag” (air resistance) – a force that opposes the satellite’s velocity, which effectively turns the orbit into a downward spiral towards the Earth’s surface.

In theory, we can calculate drag perfectly to predict the path of a satellite. This can be done using an equation that depends on the velocity of the satellite (v²), the density of the atmosphere (ρ), a numerical coefficient that depends on the shape of the satellite and its orientation with respect to the airflow (C), and the object’s area (A). For those who are interested, the equation is: D = ½ × C × ρ × A × v². But you don’t have to understand the equation to grasp why it is so hard to calculate drag.

The spacecraft’s velocity is easy to measure fairly accurately using observations. However, the other parameters are highly uncertain – making it difficult to determine Tiangong-1’s path. For vehicles such as cars and aircraft, C can be estimated theoretically or with computational fluid dynamics and measured experimentally in a wind tunnel. The main problem here is that Tiangong-1’s shape is complex, and the object is uncontrolled and tumbling chaotically, resulting in a constantly changing C.

The other unknown is the density of the atmosphere, which decreases with altitude. However, particularly at high altitudes, this varies due to a number of unpredictable factors – the most important of which is solar activity.

(Excerpt) Read more at space.com ...


TOPICS: Science
KEYWORDS: china; elonmusk; falcon9; falconheavy; spacex
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To: BenLurkin
This morning it was 120.53 miles altitude and doing 17420.56 MPH

Now it's 118.46 miles up and doing 17424.97 MPH

From my understanding at somewhere around 50 miles up it starts to burn. Yesterday it said ground fall around 2:30AM EST Sunday. This morning it had Sunday about 10AM, now it's about 3PM.

21 posted on 03/29/2018 1:20:29 PM PDT by WhoisAlanGreenspan?
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To: BenLurkin

Why is this so hard if NASA can predict the weather 100 years out? (sarc)


22 posted on 03/29/2018 1:20:38 PM PDT by jimmygrace
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To: BenLurkin
I've already got one.

It's very nice.

23 posted on 03/29/2018 1:21:16 PM PDT by RckyRaCoCo (Please Pray For My Brother Ken)
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To: bobby.223

Yeah, but it was a good episode anyway!


24 posted on 03/29/2018 1:22:59 PM PDT by bobby.223 (Retired up in the snowy Mountains of the American Redoubt and it's a great life!)
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To: Secret Agent Man

That’s not nearly as complex an equation, but it depends greatly on money. Her probability of stopping is inversely and exponentially related to the money she can raise.

HPPCII = 1/($cf + $bt + $gc + $sc)**3

Where
HPPCII is Hillary’s Probability of Putting a Cork In It
$cf is dollars from the Clinton Foundation
$bt is dollars from the book tour (almost zero)
$gc is dollars from graft and corruption
$gs is dollars from evil people like George Soros
(**3 is ‘cubed’)


25 posted on 03/29/2018 1:25:51 PM PDT by HeadOn (Someday, things will be set right - and the "smart" people will see how stupid they were.)
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To: WhoisAlanGreenspan?

It will burn lots higher up than 50 mi. Once it gets below 100 miles up, you’re looking at reentry within minutes.


26 posted on 03/29/2018 1:26:10 PM PDT by Campion (Halten Sie sich unbedingt an die Lehre! [Hold yourself absolutely to the Teaching! -- BXVI])
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To: Sontagged

Are you trolling? Since I actually saw part of skylab at the Miss Universe pageant in 1979? And of course, everytime the ISS flies overhead, I watch it if it’s not cloudy outide. And I’ve seen plenty of non-photoshopped pics...and I used to go to church with Rick Husband.


27 posted on 03/29/2018 1:27:21 PM PDT by NELSON111 (3/23/2018 The day it became clear that MAGA is a lie.)
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To: Secret Agent Man

OOPS! Wrong subscript on the last variable... Should be:

HPPCII = 1/($cf + $bt + $gc + $gs)**3

Where
HPPCII is Hillary’s Probability of Putting a Cork In It
$cf is dollars from the Clinton Foundation
$bt is dollars from the book tour (almost zero)
$gc is dollars from graft and corruption
$gs is dollars from evil people like George Soros
(**3 is ‘cubed’)


28 posted on 03/29/2018 1:28:05 PM PDT by HeadOn (Someday, things will be set right - and the "smart" people will see how stupid they were.)
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To: dforest

Beat me to it


29 posted on 03/29/2018 1:32:58 PM PDT by al baby (Hi Mom Hi Dad)
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To: BenLurkin

Thats the Tide Pod mother ship


30 posted on 03/29/2018 1:33:49 PM PDT by al baby (Hi Mom Hi Dad)
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To: NELSON111

You use to go to church with Rick’s Husband? kinky


31 posted on 03/29/2018 1:36:40 PM PDT by al baby (Hi Mom Hi Dad)
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To: Sontagged

Anyone can see a moving satellite with their own eyes if they choose to. Just spend enough time looking at the sky after dark or before dawn. I’ve seen dozens.


32 posted on 03/29/2018 1:39:09 PM PDT by Telepathic Intruder
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To: RckyRaCoCo

I told him we’ve already got one.

~snicker~


33 posted on 03/29/2018 1:46:36 PM PDT by Professional Engineer (This account has been banned or suspended.)
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To: BenLurkin

Hook that sucker up to a go-kart.


34 posted on 03/29/2018 1:50:06 PM PDT by doorgunner69 (Give me the liberty to take care of my own security..........)
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To: NELSON111

He’s trolling. Lonely loser club member. Will talk to anyone just to keep from killing himself.


35 posted on 03/29/2018 1:50:15 PM PDT by CodeToad (The Democrats haven't been this pissed off since the Republicans took their slaves away.)
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To: rdl6989

There you go....using logic again!


36 posted on 03/29/2018 1:54:58 PM PDT by Shark24
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To: Telepathic Intruder
Heck, I was lying back on a lawn chair with high power bincos looking at stars. Saw something with a faint blink to it, scoped it out and it appeared to be a tumbling booster stage.

What was strange was "Heavens Above" satellite tracking did not have anything going over at that time.

37 posted on 03/29/2018 1:55:22 PM PDT by doorgunner69 (Give me the liberty to take care of my own security..........)
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To: BenLurkin

I hope it lands on my old boat even though it’s
parked next to my house.


38 posted on 03/29/2018 1:57:46 PM PDT by tet68 ( " We would not die in that man's company, that fears his fellowship to die with us...." Henry V.)
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To: HeadOn

I like it. Now it all depends upon whether Russian collusion is commutative, associative , or distributive!


39 posted on 03/29/2018 2:01:57 PM PDT by Attention Surplus Disorder (Apoplectic is where we want them.)
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To: Sontagged

Flat earther too?


40 posted on 03/29/2018 2:03:50 PM PDT by Paradox (Don't call them mainstream, there is nothing mainstream about the MSM.)
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