Impact of asteroid that will approach Earth in 2029 'CANNOT be ruled out' [but pretty much no]

Express UK ^ | Tuesday, June 27, 2017 | Sean Martin

[SunkenCiv]

Astronomers have calculated the Apophis asteroid will speed past Earth on April 13, 2029, at just 18,600 miles away -- a hair's width in astronomical terms. To put that into perspective, the moon is 238,900 miles away...

If the 27 billion kg asteroid were to hit Earth, scientists calculate that it would leave a crater over a mile wide and a staggering 518 metres deep.

However, most worryingly, the impact would be equivalent to 880 million tons of TNT being detonated -- some 65,000 times as powerful as the nuclear bomb which was dropped on Hiroshima.

The next time the asteroid is set to pass Earth after 2029 is 2036...

However, Alan Harris, a former NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), says Apophis has a negative "Palermo Scale" -- a negative Palermo Scale indicates less of an impact risk with asteroids.

There are Millions of Asteroids in the solar system, usually found in the Asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter, however those in that pass the Earth are called Near-Earth objects

Mr Harris said: "Apophis has a Palermo Scale rating of about minus three, so while we cannot rule out an impact in the future, it is about 1,000 times less likely than a random impact in the same interval of time.

"Due to a close but non-impacting pass by the Earth, there are numerous possible impact trajectories beyond that, but all are of very low probability."

[reed13k]

As long as it isn’t called wyrmwood I think we’re ok....

[DuncanWaring]

I haven’t been able to find anything specific about the orbit of the asteroid, but the basic task involves a rather large rocket and a rather large H-bomb, and high-precision navigation to ensure it goes off on the proper side of the asteroid, to push it away from Earth rather than towards Earth.

[SunkenCiv]

It would take a long, long time to separate it into gram bags.

[DoodleBob]

You're welcome.

I'm not a physicist, but my guess is there is enough data to compute accurately the orbit of Apophis. That is, the proximity to Earth may be quite close (150 lunar distances). However, if they're pretty certain it won't deviate too far from that pathway then the x-axis value on the Torino Scale not just small, but pretty robust.

Those instances of NEOs where the orbit/pathway is erratic and the error bands around the central tendency are wide/grow over time (see below)...

...that's where we may see x-axis values further from the origin, producing Torino Scale values that are worrying.

For now, I'll keep setting my alarm clock.

[tomkat]

It’s not likely.

[kosciusko51]

Yes, but a H-bomb would cause some fractures.

Short of mounting rockets on it, I’m not sure how one would avoid fragmentation.

[joethedrummer]

Here’s hoping it hits Washington DC while congress is in session.

[bert]

Politically that would be countr productive

A hit on NYC or San Francisco would deliver NY or CA

[Verginius Rufus]

April 13, 2029, will be Friday the 13th.

We're doomed!

[gigster]

Well, there goes my racquetball appointment that day.

[unlearner]

Well, excepting the fact that none of us knows if we have another day on this planet, I hope you make it well past that date in good health, whether that brings you to your 80th birthday or 120th. For me, I’ve reached and probably passed my “mid-life” point I think, and I have reached the stage in life where I’m starting to think in terms of what do I have time to accomplish if God gives me as many days as my parents had.

[NorthMountain]

880 Megatons ...

for reference, the largest nuclear weapon ever detonated (USSR, “Tsar Bomba”) was 50 Megatons.

[DuncanWaring]

You would want the bomb to explode “at a distance”.

I’ll leave it to the physicists to decide what an appropriate distance would be.

[steve86]

All these posters are wondering how to deflect it or destroy it. Why not just move earth out of the way? Only has to be for one day.

[tomkat]

Thank you for those kind thoughts, FRiend.
All we can do is keep ploddin’ along and see what happens, eh ?
Cheers :-)

[elbook]

The Island of Britain sinking into the Ocean also ‘cannot be ruled out’ !!!!

Next.

[SunkenCiv]

I remember the heady days in 2004, when it was discovered, and the brief time it became (for a few days) the first actual impact threat, on both those scales. Prediscovery images were found in the archives which gave a longer data set, and poof! The threat vanished. The 2036 passing will be way off, because the 2029 "keyhole" will be missed. Oh well, there goes the excitement.

[SunkenCiv]

Yeah, good idea -- we'll call for the Q Continuum, they'll just temporarily change the gravitational constant of the universe.

[Reily]

They’re already doing that here on FR!

[DoodleBob]

Oh well, there goes the excitement.

Some day, we'll get lucky but then...